Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments June 2004 1(The Bank's View 2)
(English translation prepared by the Bank's staff based on the Japanese original)
- This report is based on data and information available at the time of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting held on June 14 and 15, 2004.
- The Bank's view was determined by the Policy Board at the Monetary Policy Meeting held on June 14 and 15, 2004.
June 15, 2004
Bank of Japan
Japan's economy continues to recover, and the increases in production and corporate profits are exerting positive effects on employment.
Exports and business fixed investment continue to increase, and industrial production has also been increasing consistently. Under these circumstances, the employment situation has been improving and the decline in household income is coming to a halt. Private consumption continues to show some positive movements. Meanwhile, housing investment has been nearly flat and public investment has been declining.
Japan's economy is expected to continue to recover, gathering stronger momentum.
Overseas economies are projected to continue growing relatively fast. Based on this projection, it is likely that final demand, particularly exports and business fixed investment, will continue recovering, and that production will also continue increasing. The impact of excessive debt in the corporate sector and other structural factors on corporate activity has been weakening. Although firms are still restraining their labor costs, the positive effects of the increases in production and corporate profits on household income are expected to become visible. Public investment, meanwhile, is projected to be on a downtrend.
On the price front, domestic corporate goods prices have been rising, due to the strengthening of commodity prices at home and abroad and to the improvement in supply and demand conditions. Consumer prices (excluding fresh food) have been declining slightly on a year-on-year basis.
Domestic corporate goods prices are expected to continue increasing for some time, partly due to the rise in crude oil prices. On the other hand, supply and demand conditions will remain loose for the time being, although they are improving. Under these circumstances, consumer prices are basically projected to continue falling slightly on a year-on-year basis.
As for the financial environment, the environment for corporate finance is becoming more accommodative on the whole, although it remains severe for firms with high credit risks. The issuing environment for CP and corporate bonds is favorable on the whole. Also, the lending attitude of private banks is becoming more accommodative. The lending attitude of financial institutions as perceived by firms continues to improve. The pace of decline in credit demand in the private sector is becoming somewhat moderate. Under these circumstances, the amount outstanding of CP and corporate bonds issued continues to be above the previous year's level, and the rate of decline in lending by private banks has been diminishing slightly. As growth of banknotes in circulation is on a downtrend mainly due to decreasing anxieties about the financial system, the year-on-year growth rate of the monetary base is at the 7.0-8.0 percent level. The year-on-year growth rate of the money stock is at the 2.0 percent level. As for developments in financial markets, money market conditions continue to be extremely easy, as the Bank of Japan continues to provide ample liquidity. In the foreign exchange and capital markets, the yen's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, long-term interest rates, and stock prices have risen from last month.