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Home > Monetary Policy > Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments 2005 > Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments November 2005 (The Bank's View )
(English translation prepared by the Bank's staff based on the Japanese original)
November 18, 2005
Bank of Japan
Japan's economy continues to recover.
Exports have continued to increase moderately, and industrial production has also been on an uptrend with some fluctuations. Business fixed investment has continued to increase against the background of high corporate profits. Household income has also continued rising moderately, reflecting the improvement in employment and wages. In this situation, private consumption has been steady. Housing investment has shown some strength. Meanwhile, public investment has basically been on a downtrend.
Japan's economy is expected to continue to recover.
Exports are expected to continue rising against the background of the expansion of overseas economies. Domestic private demand is likely to continue increasing against the background of high corporate profits and the moderate rise in household income, while structural adjustment pressure stemming from the excess capacity and debt of firms has almost dissipated. In light of these increases in demand both at home and abroad, production is also expected to follow an increasing trend. Public investment, meanwhile, is projected to remain on a downtrend.
On the price front, domestic corporate goods prices have continued to increase, mainly reflecting the rise in international commodity prices and the depreciation of the yen. Consumer prices (excluding fresh food) have been declining slightly on a year-on-year basis, partly due to the reduction in electricity and telephone charges.
Domestic corporate goods prices are expected to continue increasing for the time being, mainly due to the effects of the rise in international commodity prices and the depreciation of the yen. Meanwhile, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices is projected to be 0.0 percent or a slight increase toward the end of the year. This is because the negative contribution of rice prices is likely to dissipate and the effects from the reduction in electricity and telephone charges are expected to ease, in a situation where supply and demand conditions continue improving gradually.
As for the financial environment, the environment for corporate finance is becoming more accommodative on the whole. The issuing environment for CP and corporate bonds is favorable. Also, the lending attitude of private banks is becoming more accommodative. The lending attitude of financial institutions as perceived by firms has been improving. The pace of decline in credit demand in the private sector is very moderate. Under these circumstances, the amount outstanding of lending by private banks has become above the previous year's level, and that of CP and corporate bonds issued has been above the previous year's level. The year-on-year growth rate of the monetary base is around 3.0 percent, and that of the money stock has been around 2.0 percent. The year-on-year growth rate of banknotes in circulation was around 3.0 percent in October, but it has been decreasing since the beginning of November due to the introduction of the new series of banknotes in the same month last year. As for developments in financial markets, money market conditions continue to be extremely easy, as the Bank of Japan continues to provide ample liquidity. In the foreign exchange and capital markets, stock prices have risen compared with last month, while the yen's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has fallen compared with last month. Meanwhile, long-term interest rates have been around the same level as last month.