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Utilization of Financial Institutions' Self-Assessment in Enhancing Credit Risk Management

  • The full text can be obtained from the February 1998 issue of the Quarterly Bulletin.

February 1998
Bank of Japan
Bank Supervision Department

Click on ron9802a.zip (110KB[MS-Word]) to download the full text.

SUMMARY

The government's Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) measures to be implemented from April 1998 require financial institutions to conduct adequate assessment of their assets and to calculate appropriate "loan-loss write-offs and provisions" based on their own internal rules and referring to guidelines of the authorities. The Japanese "Big Bang" reform package is expected to be conducted by the year 2001. Given these situations, large financial institutions in Japan are making great efforts to enhance credit risk management. Medium and small-sized financial institutions are on their way to establish basic credit risk management systems under the PCA measures. Since information derived from self-assessment can be useful in a wide range of activities -- from strengthening risk management systems to formulating business strategy -- large differentials in business management are likely to arise among financial institutions depending on the utilization of this valuable information.

The Bank of Japan introduced the Tracing Method of asset assessment and loan losses in order to support financial institutions to maximize the use of their own assessments as a management tool. The Tracing Method is used to observe changes in the condition of individual assets in a time series and is one way to utilize financial institutions' self-assessment of assets. The Bank conducted a follow-up analysis in the recent on-site examination to analyze how many of the loans classified in the previous examination (1993-94) were later "written off and others" in relation to financial losses ("others" are defined as specific loan-loss provisions, losses from support by renunciation of claims, and losses from sales of nonperforming loans to the Cooperative Credit Purchasing Company [CCPC]).

These empirical studies using the Tracing Method suggest the following four points of importance for enhancing credit risk management.

(1) Importance of strengthening the early warning functions

It is vital to control loans classified as "substandard" (S) because the likelihood of loan losses in terms of "write-offs and others" reaching a substantial size in the long term may vary substantially depending on the adequacy of the long-term management of this classification of loans.

(2) Importance of utilizing statistical methods which cover the life-span of loans

For example, for loans classified as (S), there is a tendency for the loan-loss ratio to rise after the third year following the assessment.

(3) Importance of avoiding loan concentration

Financial institutions with highly concentrated loans in terms of industry had higher loan-loss ratios, while institutions with diversified loan portfolios had relatively low ratios.

(4) Importance of gathering financial institutions' own default data for risk quantification

The estimated losses may be understated when only publicly disclosed bankruptcy data are used since losses incurred through loans against "de facto bankrupt borrowers" and recipients of financial support are not covered in such data. The latter type of losses accounts for a significant share of outstanding losses. The Tracing Method covers all these data and enhances establishment of financial institutions' own default data for credit risk quantification.

On our part, the Bank of Japan will continue to check and monitor the credit risk management systems at financial institutions on the off-site basis and also during the on-site examination in a more risk-focused, seamless and flexible manner, taking individual institutions' circumstances into consideration. In addition, the Bank will continue to research methods of quantifying credit risks as well as conducting follow-up analysis of the Tracing Method, in line with the worldwide trend to further enhance credit risk management.