June 1999
Naoko Hara
Koichiro Kamada

Views expressed in Working Paper Series are those of authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Japan or Research and Statistics Department.

Questions and opinions on the working paper should be e-mailed to each author whose address is indicated in the document.

---

Click on cwp99e01.pdf (113KB) to download the full text.

---

Abstract

This paper examines survey expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate. We fit simple mechanisms on the survey expectations and test their rationality. We present the puzzling fact that in the 1990's the short-horizon expectations have lost their destabilizing property observed in the late 1980's and instead become static unlike the actual movement of the spot exchange rate.