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Addition of Sample Enterprises to the Tankan

February 20, 2017
Research and Statistics Department
Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan has decided to add 36 non-financial enterprises to its Tankan (Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan) sample from the March 2017 survey (see Appendix).

To prevent a decrease in the number of sample enterprises -- due to bankruptcies, mergers, and other factors -- from causing a decline in the statistical accuracy of the Tankan, the Bank examines the statistical accuracy once a year and adds new sample enterprises if necessary.1 Following this examination carried out using sample enterprises of the most recent December 2016 survey, the Bank has decided this time to add the aforementioned sample enterprises. As a result, the number of samples of non-financial enterprises and financial institutions for the March 2017 survey will total 10,799 and 196, respectively.

Details are described below.

  1. For details, see "Sample Design and Sample Maintenance of TANKAN" (Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan, June 7, 2004).

1. Sampling Distribution

Population enterprises of the Tankan are subdivided into 391 strata for population estimation based on three classifications -- industry, capital size, and number of employees. For each stratum, we examined whether the distribution of sample enterprises properly reflects that of population enterprises based on the capital size and number of employees.

We found that the distribution of sample enterprises deviated from that of population enterprises for one stratum, as well as that the distribution of sample enterprises of some strata is likely to deviate in the future due to a possible decrease in the number of sample enterprises.2 Therefore, the Bank has made modifications -- by adding sample enterprises -- to the sampling distribution of these strata.

  1. 2The Bank performs a chi-square goodness-of-fit test to evaluate the following null hypothesis H0: the distribution of sample enterprises forms the same shape as that of population enterprises. When the null hypothesis is statistically rejected, it is judged that there is a divergence between the distribution of sample enterprises and that of population enterprises.

2. Standard Error Ratios

As a result of these modifications made to the sampling distribution, the standard error ratios3 of total sales are within the target range for the six main categories by industry and scale -- with manufacturing registering less than 3 percent and nonmanufacturing 5 percent -- as shown in the chart below.

Standard Error Ratios of Total Sales Reflecting the Modified Sampling Distribution%
Large Enterprises Medium-Sized Enterprises Small Enterprises
Manufacturing Actual 1.0 2.7 2.5
Target 3.0 3.0 3.0
Nonmanufacturing Actual 3.0 4.6 4.0
Target 5.0 5.0 5.0
  1. 3The standard error ratio is a coefficient of variation of sample estimates. It should be noted that the estimates for the population total are subject to a margin of error.

Inquiries

Business Survey, Research and Statistics Department

E-mail : post.rsd5@boj.or.jp


(Appendix)

New Sample Enterprises by Industry and Scale

Number of Non-Financial Enterprises
Total Large Enterprises Medium-Sized Enterprises Small Enterprises
All industries 36 - 10 26
Manufacturing 13 - - 13
Textiles - - - -
Lumber & Wood products - - - -
Pulp & Paper - - - -
Chemicals - - - -
Petroleum & Coal products - - - -
Ceramics, Stone & Clay 5 - - 5
Iron & Steel - - - -
Nonferrous metals - - - -
Food & Beverages - - - -
Processed metals - - - -
General-purpose machinery - - - -
Production machinery - - - -
Business oriented machinery - - - -
Electrical machinery - - - -
Shipbuilding, Heavy machinery & Other transportation machinery - - - -
Motor vehicles - - - -
Other manufacturing 8 - - 8
Nonmanufacturing 23 - 10 13
Construction 9 - - 9
Real estate 3 - 3 -
Goods rental & Leasing - - - -
Wholesaling 4 - - 4
Retailing - - - -
Transport & Postal activities - - - -
Communications 1 - 1 -
Information services - - - -
Other information communication - - - -
Electric & Gas utilities - - - -
Services for businesses 6 - 6 -
Services for individuals - - - -
Accommodations, Eating & Drinking services - - - -
Mining & Quarrying of stone and gravel - - - -
Number of Financial Institutions
Financial institutions -
Banks -
Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses -
Financial products transaction dealers -
Insurance companies -
Non-deposit money corporations -