TANKAN Outline (March 2011)
April 1, 2011
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
(Note) Please see the end about the change from the September 2010 Survey.
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,426 6,675 11,101 ( 95.6%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,199 1,185 2,384 ( 96.1%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,190 1,823 3,013 ( 95.5%)
Small Enterprises 2,037 3,667 5,704 ( 95.5%)
[Responding Period: February 24 to March 31]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
Dec. 2010 Survey March 2011 Survey
FY2010 86.47 86.01
1H 89.16 89.09
2H 83.87 82.98
FY2011 - 84.20
1H - 84.04
2H - 84.36
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Dec. 2010 March 2011 Change June 2011 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
[Large Enterprises]
(- 2)
Manufacturing 5 6 + 1 2 - 4
(- 1)
Nonmanufacturing 1 3 + 2 - 1 - 4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
(-12)
Manufacturing 1 - 4 - 5 - 8 - 4
(-17)
Nonmanufacturing -10 - 6 + 4 -12 - 6
[Small Enterprises]
(-23)
Manufacturing -12 -10 + 2 -16 - 6
(-29)
Nonmanufacturing -22 -19 + 3 -27 - 8
[All Enterprises]
(-18)
All industries -11 - 9 + 2 -14 - 5
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year).
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
Dec. 2010 March 2011 Change June 2011 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -21 -19 + 2 -19 0
Small Enterprises -36 -31 + 5 -33 - 2
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 6 - 4 + 2 - 2 + 2
Small Enterprises -17 -10 + 7 -11 - 1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 11 12 + 1 - -
Small Enterprises 15 11 - 4 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 17 14 - 3 - -
Small Enterprises 24 18 - 6 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -17 -12 + 5 - 5 + 7
Small Enterprises -22 -17 + 5 -15 + 2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 11 27 +16 37 +10
Small Enterprises 15 33 +18 50 +17
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2010 Revision FY2011 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.3 - 0.7 1.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.3 - 0.1 1.3 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.0 + 0.2 1.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.9 + 0.5 1.6 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.9 + 0.4 0.8 -
Nonmanufacturing 0.2 + 0.4 0.2 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.3 0.0 1.2 -
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2010 Revision FY2011 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 59.0 + 0.8 0.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 22.3 + 4.5 - 0.4 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 65.8 - 0.3 2.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 12.9 + 4.1 2.0 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 60.1 + 1.2 6.5 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.8 - 3.4 9.2 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 30.6 + 1.9 1.8 -
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2010 Changes FY2011 Changes
(Forecast) (Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.41 + 0.06 4.37 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.90 + 0.17 3.84 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.99 - 0.02 4.00 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.52 + 0.09 2.53 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.05 + 0.02 3.23 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.04 - 0.08 2.23 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 3.42 + 0.07 3.44 -
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2010 Revision FY2011 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.5 - 2.4 4.3 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.1 - 0.8 - 2.9 -
All industries 1.6 - 1.4 - 0.4 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 - 3.9 20.9 -
Nonmanufacturing - 7.7 + 0.1 -11.1 -
All industries - 4.9 - 1.4 0.5 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.8 + 3.2 - 8.1 -
Nonmanufacturing - 9.0 + 8.5 -33.9 -
All industries - 2.3 + 6.5 -24.5 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.0 - 1.8 4.9 -
Nonmanufacturing - 1.0 + 0.5 - 8.2 -
All industries 0.1 - 0.3 - 3.7 -
* Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2010 Revision FY2011 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.6 - 2.4 5.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.9 - 1.5 - 0.1 -
All industries 2.4 - 1.8 1.7 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.8 - 4.6 22.7 -
Nonmanufacturing - 8.6 - 1.9 - 3.8 -
All industries - 5.4 - 2.9 5.8 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.2 + 1.2 1.1 -
Nonmanufacturing - 4.3 + 4.5 -29.9 -
All industries - 1.0 + 3.3 -18.3 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.9 - 2.3 7.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 0.3 - 0.9 - 4.2 -
All industries 0.9 - 1.4 - 0.2 -
* Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
Dec. 2010 March 2011 Change June 2011 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises 12 11 - 1 9 - 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 12 12 0 11 - 1
Small Enterprises 15 13 - 2 11 - 2
All Enterprises 14 12 - 2 11 - 1
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
Dec. 2010 March 2011 Change June 2011 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises 6 4 - 2 5 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 5 4 - 1 4 0
Small Enterprises 7 5 - 2 5 0
All Enterprises 6 4 - 2 5 + 1
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
Dec. 2010 March 2011 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 15 17 + 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 7 9 + 2
Small Enterprises - 9 - 8 + 1
All Enterprises 1 2 + 1
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2010 March 2011 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 12 14 + 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 8 9 + 1
Small Enterprises - 2 0 + 2
All Enterprises 3 5 + 2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
Dec. 2010 March 2011 Change June 2011 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises -11 - 3 + 8 6 + 9
Medium-sized Enterprises -11 - 3 + 8 5 + 8
Small Enterprises - 8 - 3 + 5 9 +12
All Enterprises -10 - 3 + 7 7 +10
[Condition for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2010 March 2011 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises - 2 0 + 2
[Note of change]
"Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses" and "Software and Fixed Investment excluding
Land Purchasing Expenses" are changed to the data compiled under the new lease accounting standard
from the September 2010 survey.
