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TANKAN Outline (June 2011)

July 1, 2011
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

   (Note) Please see the end about the change from the September 2010 Survey. 
Number of Sample Enterprises 
 
                                            Manu-      Nonmanu-      Total      (Response 
                                          facturing    facturing                   rate) 
All Enterprises                                 4,392       6,605       10,997    ( 98.2%) 
of which Large Enterprises                      1,190       1,177        2,367    ( 98.4%) 
         Medium-sized Enterprises               1,183       1,812        2,995    ( 98.5%) 
         Small Enterprises                      2,019       3,616        5,635    ( 98.0%) 
 
[Responding Period: May 30 to June 30] 
 
 
 
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises 
(yen per US dollar) 
                           March 2011 Survey         June 2011 Survey 
                    FY2010         86.01                    86.03 
                        1H         89.09                    89.00 
                        2H         82.98                    83.05 
 
                    FY2011         84.20                    82.59 
                        1H         84.04                    82.59 
                        2H         84.36                    82.59 
 
 
 
 
 
[Business Conditions] 
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points) 
 
                            March 2011    June 2011     Change    Sept. 2011    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
[Large Enterprises] 
                                            (  2) 
   Manufacturing                  6          - 9         -15            2         +11 
                                            (- 1) 
   Nonmanufacturing               3          - 5         - 8          - 2         + 3 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
                                            (- 8) 
   Manufacturing                - 4          -12         - 8          - 7         + 5 
                                            (-12) 
   Nonmanufacturing             - 6          -17         -11          -16         + 1 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
                                            (-16) 
   Manufacturing                -10          -21         -11          -15         + 6 
                                            (-27) 
   Nonmanufacturing             -19          -26         - 7          -29         - 3 
 
[All Enterprises] 
                                            (-14) 
   All industries               - 9          -18         - 9          -15         + 3 
 
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year) 
           1H...first half (April - September) 
           2H...second half (October - March of the following year). 
        2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey. 
        3. Figures of the March 2011 survey released on April 1 are on a regular basis. 
 
 
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] 
(%points) 
                            March 2011    June 2011     Change    Sept. 2011    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of 
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") 
   Large Enterprises            -19          -15         + 4          -13         + 2 
   Small Enterprises            -31          -29         + 2          -28         + 1 
 
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products  (Diffusion index of 
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") 
   Large Enterprises            - 4          - 2         + 2            0         + 2 
   Small Enterprises            -10          -13         - 3          -13           0 
 
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or 
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") 
   Large Enterprises             12            9         - 3           -           - 
   Small Enterprises             11           15         + 4           -           - 
 
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat 
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") 
   Large Enterprises             14            7         - 7           -           - 
   Small Enterprises             18           15         - 3           -           - 
 
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") 
   Large Enterprises            -12          - 8         + 4          - 6         + 2 
   Small Enterprises            -17          -15         + 2          -13         + 2 
 
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") 
   Large Enterprises             27           28         + 1           27         - 1 
   Small Enterprises             33           33           0           42         + 9 
 
 
 
[Sales] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2010      Revision      FY2011     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 6.9        - 0.3         2.9        + 0.9 
   Nonmanufacturing              4.7        + 0.4         2.2        + 1.4 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 7.5        - 0.4         2.8        + 0.5 
   Nonmanufacturing              4.0        + 0.1         1.0        - 0.5 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 5.5        + 0.5         0.3        + 0.1 
   Nonmanufacturing              0.7        + 0.4       - 1.0        - 0.7 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries                4.5        + 0.2         1.5        + 0.5 
 
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between 
       the current and the previous survey. 
 
 
[Current Profits] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2010      Revision      FY2011     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                67.9        + 5.6         0.4        + 5.3 
   Nonmanufacturing             33.2        + 8.9       - 6.1        + 2.7 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                70.9        + 3.1       - 1.7        - 0.8 
   Nonmanufacturing             16.5        + 3.2       - 4.7        - 3.6 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                61.6        + 0.9         2.3        - 3.1 
   Nonmanufacturing              5.2        + 2.3         1.9        - 4.6 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries               38.3        + 5.8       - 2.5        + 1.4 
 
 
 
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] 
(%, %points) 
                              FY2010       Changes      FY2011      Changes 
                                                      (Forecast) 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                4.68       + 0.27         4.56      + 0.19 
   Nonmanufacturing             4.23       + 0.33         3.89      + 0.05 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                4.13       + 0.14         3.95      - 0.05 
   Nonmanufacturing             2.59       + 0.07         2.45      - 0.08 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                3.07       + 0.02         3.13      - 0.10 
   Nonmanufacturing             2.08       + 0.04         2.14      - 0.09 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries               3.61       + 0.19         3.47      + 0.03 
 
 
 
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2010      Revision      FY2011     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 3.5        - 3.9         9.2        + 0.6 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 1.0        - 3.1         1.7        + 1.5 
   All industries              - 1.9        - 3.4         4.2        + 1.1 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 0.6          0.0        23.8        + 2.5 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 8.9        - 1.3       - 5.7        + 4.7 
   All industries              - 5.7        - 0.8         5.1        + 3.7 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 9.8        - 1.8       - 4.1        + 2.4 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 1.6        + 8.1       -35.8        + 4.9 
   All industries                2.0        + 4.5       -24.9        + 3.8 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 1.1        - 3.0         9.4        + 1.2 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 2.3        - 1.3       - 4.9        + 2.2 
   All industries              - 1.9        - 1.9         0.0        + 1.8 
 
   * Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard. 
 
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2010      Revision      FY2011     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 2.5        - 4.0        10.5        + 1.1 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 2.0        - 4.7         5.8        + 0.9 
   All industries              - 2.1        - 4.5         7.5        + 0.9 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 0.2        - 0.6        27.3        + 3.1 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 9.8        - 1.4         1.3        + 3.8 
   All industries              - 6.4        - 1.1        10.8        + 3.5 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 3.0        - 2.1         4.1        + 0.8 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.5        + 7.1       -32.6        + 3.0 
   All industries                2.7        + 3.7       -19.7        + 2.0 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 1.4        - 3.3        12.1        + 1.4 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 2.6        - 2.8         0.0        + 1.5 
   All industries              - 2.2        - 3.0         4.3        + 1.4 
 
   * Compiled under the new lease accounting standard. 
 
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] 
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points) 
                            March 2011    June 2011     Change    Sept. 2011    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises             11           10         - 1            8         - 2 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      12           12           0            9         - 3 
 
   Small Enterprises             13           15         + 2           11         - 4 
 
   All Enterprises               12           13         + 1           10         - 3 
 
 
 
 
 
 
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points) 
                            March 2011    June 2011     Change    Sept. 2011    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises              4            7         + 3            4         - 3 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises       4            7         + 3            3         - 4 
 
   Small Enterprises              5            9         + 4            5         - 4 
 
   All Enterprises                4            8         + 4            4         - 4 
 
 
 
 
[Financial Position (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points) 
                            March 2011    June 2011     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      March and 
                                                         June 
 
   Large Enterprises             17           15         - 2 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises       9            7         - 2 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 8          - 9         - 1 
 
   All Enterprises                2            1         - 1 
 
 
 
 
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points) 
                            March 2011    June 2011     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      March and 
                                                         June 
 
   Large Enterprises             14           15         + 1 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises       9           11         + 2 
 
   Small Enterprises              0            0           0 
 
   All Enterprises                5            6         + 1 
 
 
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points) 
                            March 2011    June 2011     Change    Sept. 2011    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises            - 3          - 3           0            2         + 5 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises     - 3          - 4         - 1            3         + 7 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 3          - 3           0            4         + 7 
 
   All Enterprises              - 3          - 4         - 1            3         + 7 
 
 
 
 
[Condition for CP Issuance (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points) 
                            March 2011    June 2011     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      March and 
                                                         June 
 
   Large Enterprises              0          - 1         - 1 
 
 
[Note of change] 
   "Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses" and "Software and Fixed Investment excluding 
   Land Purchasing Expenses" are changed to the data compiled under the new lease accounting standard 
   from the September 2010 survey. 
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