Tankan Outline (June 2012)
July 2, 2012
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,334 6,458 10,792 ( 99.0%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,173 1,159 2,332 ( 99.1%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,160 1,783 2,943 ( 98.9%)
Small Enterprises 2,001 3,516 5,517 ( 98.9%)
[Responding Period: May 29 to June 29]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
March 2012 Survey June 2012 Survey
FY2011 78.93 79.27
1H 80.20 80.18
2H 77.69 78.35
FY2012 78.14 78.95
1H 78.04 78.98
2H 78.24 78.93
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
March 2012 June 2012 Change Sept. 2012 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
(- 3)
Manufacturing - 4 - 1 + 3 1 + 2
( 5)
Nonmanufacturing 5 8 + 3 6 - 2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
(- 8)
Manufacturing - 7 - 6 + 1 - 7 - 1
(- 5)
Nonmanufacturing - 1 3 + 4 - 3 - 6
[Small Enterprises]
(-15)
Manufacturing -10 -12 - 2 -15 - 3
(-16)
Nonmanufacturing -11 - 9 + 2 -15 - 6
[All Enterprises]
(- 9)
All industries - 6 - 4 + 2 - 8 - 4
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year).
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
March 2012 June 2012 Change Sept. 2012 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -19 -17 + 2 -16 + 1
Small Enterprises -30 -32 - 2 -33 - 1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -11 -10 + 1 - 7 + 3
Small Enterprises -18 -19 - 1 -17 + 2
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 19 18 - 1 - -
Small Enterprises 16 17 + 1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 18 17 - 1 - -
Small Enterprises 22 24 + 2 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -14 -17 - 3 -14 + 3
Small Enterprises -18 -20 - 2 -24 - 4
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 11 4 - 7 7 + 3
Small Enterprises 24 16 - 8 16 0
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2011 Revision FY2012 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.4 - 0.1 5.1 + 2.9
Nonmanufacturing 3.5 + 1.0 2.1 + 1.9
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.3 + 0.3 2.0 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 2.8 + 0.5 2.9 + 0.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.2 + 0.7 0.5 + 0.4
Nonmanufacturing 1.6 + 1.1 - 0.2 + 0.7
[All Enterprises]
All industries 2.2 + 0.6 2.4 + 1.6
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2011 Revision FY2012 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -11.7 + 7.6 10.1 +17.8
Nonmanufacturing - 7.2 + 7.4 - 1.8 + 7.9
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 3.6 + 4.6 3.4 + 2.6
Nonmanufacturing 11.9 + 7.7 - 1.3 + 2.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.7 + 4.1 11.5 + 0.2
Nonmanufacturing 17.5 + 5.6 5.7 + 2.9
[All Enterprises]
All industries - 3.2 + 6.9 3.4 + 8.3
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2011 Changes FY2012 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.11 + 0.29 4.31 + 0.54
Nonmanufacturing 3.79 + 0.23 3.64 + 0.20
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.89 + 0.16 3.94 + 0.09
Nonmanufacturing 2.82 + 0.19 2.71 + 0.04
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.08 + 0.10 3.42 0.00
Nonmanufacturing 2.41 + 0.11 2.55 + 0.06
[All Enterprises]
All industries 3.42 + 0.20 3.46 + 0.22
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2011 Revision FY2012 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 0.7 - 3.4 12.4 + 4.8
Nonmanufacturing - 1.5 - 1.8 3.0 + 3.2
All industries - 1.3 - 2.3 6.2 + 3.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 20.4 - 0.5 7.2 + 2.5
Nonmanufacturing 2.5 + 0.4 2.3 - 0.3
All industries 9.0 0.0 4.3 + 0.8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.3 + 5.6 -14.3 +11.4
Nonmanufacturing -10.1 + 6.7 - 1.6 +15.5
All industries - 2.7 + 6.3 - 6.6 +14.0
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 - 1.5 7.2 + 5.2
Nonmanufacturing - 2.3 - 0.4 2.3 + 4.1
All industries 0.0 - 0.8 4.0 + 4.5
* Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2011 Revision FY2012 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 0.2 - 3.7 11.8 + 3.6
Nonmanufacturing 1.6 - 0.9 5.1 + 3.9
All industries 1.0 - 1.9 7.4 + 3.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 22.0 - 0.5 9.4 + 2.6
Nonmanufacturing 5.6 - 0.1 2.7 - 0.7
All industries 11.6 - 0.3 5.4 + 0.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 16.4 + 4.9 -10.1 +10.6
Nonmanufacturing -16.1 + 7.7 14.5 +17.5
All industries - 4.7 + 6.5 3.9 +14.8
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.2 - 2.0 8.2 + 4.2
Nonmanufacturing - 0.2 + 0.1 5.8 + 4.7
All industries 1.7 - 0.7 6.7 + 4.5
* Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
March 2012 June 2012 Change Sept. 2012 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises 10 10 0 8 - 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 10 10 0 9 - 1
Small Enterprises 12 12 0 9 - 3
All Enterprises 11 11 0 9 - 2
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
March 2012 June 2012 Change Sept. 2012 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises 3 3 0 2 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 0 1 + 1 - 1 - 2
Small Enterprises 0 1 + 1 - 1 - 2
All Enterprises 1 1 0 0 - 1
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
March 2012 June 2012 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 14 16 + 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 8 11 + 3
Small Enterprises - 6 - 3 + 3
All Enterprises 2 4 + 2
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
March 2012 June 2012 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 15 16 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 12 15 + 3
Small Enterprises 2 4 + 2
All Enterprises 7 9 + 2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
March 2012 June 2012 Change Sept. 2012 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises - 4 - 6 - 2 0 + 6
Medium-sized Enterprises - 5 - 6 - 1 - 1 + 5
Small Enterprises - 5 - 6 - 1 1 + 7
All Enterprises - 4 - 6 - 2 0 + 6
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
March 2012 June 2012 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 1 2 + 1
