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Tankan Outline (June 2012)

July 2, 2012
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

 
Number of Sample Enterprises 
 
                                            Manu-      Nonmanu-      Total      (Response 
                                          facturing    facturing                   rate) 
All Enterprises                                 4,334       6,458       10,792    ( 99.0%) 
of which Large Enterprises                      1,173       1,159        2,332    ( 99.1%) 
         Medium-sized Enterprises               1,160       1,783        2,943    ( 98.9%) 
         Small Enterprises                      2,001       3,516        5,517    ( 98.9%) 
 
[Responding Period: May 29 to June 29] 
 
 
 
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises 
(yen per US dollar) 
                           March 2012 Survey         June 2012 Survey 
                    FY2011         78.93                    79.27 
                        1H         80.20                    80.18 
                        2H         77.69                    78.35 
 
                    FY2012         78.14                    78.95 
                        1H         78.04                    78.98 
                        2H         78.24                    78.93 
 
 
 
 
 
[Business Conditions] 
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points) 
 
                            March 2012    June 2012     Change    Sept. 2012    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
[Large Enterprises] 
                                            (- 3) 
   Manufacturing                - 4          - 1         + 3            1         + 2 
                                            (  5) 
   Nonmanufacturing               5            8         + 3            6         - 2 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
                                            (- 8) 
   Manufacturing                - 7          - 6         + 1          - 7         - 1 
                                            (- 5) 
   Nonmanufacturing             - 1            3         + 4          - 3         - 6 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
                                            (-15) 
   Manufacturing                -10          -12         - 2          -15         - 3 
                                            (-16) 
   Nonmanufacturing             -11          - 9         + 2          -15         - 6 
 
[All Enterprises] 
                                            (- 9) 
   All industries               - 6          - 4         + 2          - 8         - 4 
 
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year) 
           1H...first half (April - September) 
           2H...second half (October - March of the following year). 
        2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey. 
 
 
 
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] 
(%points) 
                            March 2012    June 2012     Change    Sept. 2012    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of 
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") 
   Large Enterprises            -19          -17         + 2          -16         + 1 
   Small Enterprises            -30          -32         - 2          -33         - 1 
 
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products  (Diffusion index of 
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") 
   Large Enterprises            -11          -10         + 1          - 7         + 3 
   Small Enterprises            -18          -19         - 1          -17         + 2 
 
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or 
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") 
   Large Enterprises             19           18         - 1           -           - 
   Small Enterprises             16           17         + 1           -           - 
 
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat 
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") 
   Large Enterprises             18           17         - 1           -           - 
   Small Enterprises             22           24         + 2           -           - 
 
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") 
   Large Enterprises            -14          -17         - 3          -14         + 3 
   Small Enterprises            -18          -20         - 2          -24         - 4 
 
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") 
   Large Enterprises             11            4         - 7            7         + 3 
   Small Enterprises             24           16         - 8           16           0 
 
 
 
[Sales] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2011      Revision      FY2012     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 0.4        - 0.1         5.1        + 2.9 
   Nonmanufacturing              3.5        + 1.0         2.1        + 1.9 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 2.3        + 0.3         2.0          0.0 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.8        + 0.5         2.9        + 0.9 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.2        + 0.7         0.5        + 0.4 
   Nonmanufacturing              1.6        + 1.1       - 0.2        + 0.7 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries                2.2        + 0.6         2.4        + 1.6 
 
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between 
       the current and the previous survey. 
 
 
[Current Profits] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2011      Revision      FY2012     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               -11.7        + 7.6        10.1        +17.8 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 7.2        + 7.4       - 1.8        + 7.9 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 3.6        + 4.6         3.4        + 2.6 
   Nonmanufacturing             11.9        + 7.7       - 1.3        + 2.2 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.7        + 4.1        11.5        + 0.2 
   Nonmanufacturing             17.5        + 5.6         5.7        + 2.9 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries              - 3.2        + 6.9         3.4        + 8.3 
 
 
 
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] 
(%, %points) 
                              FY2011       Changes      FY2012      Changes 
                                                      (Forecast) 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                4.11       + 0.29         4.31      + 0.54 
   Nonmanufacturing             3.79       + 0.23         3.64      + 0.20 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                3.89       + 0.16         3.94      + 0.09 
   Nonmanufacturing             2.82       + 0.19         2.71      + 0.04 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                3.08       + 0.10         3.42        0.00 
   Nonmanufacturing             2.41       + 0.11         2.55      + 0.06 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries               3.42       + 0.20         3.46      + 0.22 
 
 
 
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2011      Revision      FY2012     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 0.7        - 3.4        12.4        + 4.8 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 1.5        - 1.8         3.0        + 3.2 
   All industries              - 1.3        - 2.3         6.2        + 3.8 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                20.4        - 0.5         7.2        + 2.5 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.5        + 0.4         2.3        - 0.3 
   All industries                9.0          0.0         4.3        + 0.8 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                11.3        + 5.6       -14.3        +11.4 
   Nonmanufacturing            -10.1        + 6.7       - 1.6        +15.5 
   All industries              - 2.7        + 6.3       - 6.6        +14.0 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 4.3        - 1.5         7.2        + 5.2 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 2.3        - 0.4         2.3        + 4.1 
   All industries                0.0        - 0.8         4.0        + 4.5 
 
   * Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard. 
 
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2011      Revision      FY2012     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 0.2        - 3.7        11.8        + 3.6 
   Nonmanufacturing              1.6        - 0.9         5.1        + 3.9 
   All industries                1.0        - 1.9         7.4        + 3.8 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                22.0        - 0.5         9.4        + 2.6 
   Nonmanufacturing              5.6        - 0.1         2.7        - 0.7 
   All industries               11.6        - 0.3         5.4        + 0.6 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                16.4        + 4.9       -10.1        +10.6 
   Nonmanufacturing            -16.1        + 7.7        14.5        +17.5 
   All industries              - 4.7        + 6.5         3.9        +14.8 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 5.2        - 2.0         8.2        + 4.2 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 0.2        + 0.1         5.8        + 4.7 
   All industries                1.7        - 0.7         6.7        + 4.5 
 
   * Compiled under the new lease accounting standard. 
 
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] 
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points) 
                            March 2012    June 2012     Change    Sept. 2012    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises             10           10           0            8         - 2 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      10           10           0            9         - 1 
 
   Small Enterprises             12           12           0            9         - 3 
 
   All Enterprises               11           11           0            9         - 2 
 
 
 
 
 
 
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points) 
                            March 2012    June 2012     Change    Sept. 2012    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises              3            3           0            2         - 1 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises       0            1         + 1          - 1         - 2 
 
   Small Enterprises              0            1         + 1          - 1         - 2 
 
   All Enterprises                1            1           0            0         - 1 
 
 
 
 
[Financial Position (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points) 
                            March 2012    June 2012     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      March and 
                                                         June 
 
   Large Enterprises             14           16         + 2 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises       8           11         + 3 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 6          - 3         + 3 
 
   All Enterprises                2            4         + 2 
 
 
 
 
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points) 
                            March 2012    June 2012     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      March and 
                                                         June 
 
   Large Enterprises             15           16         + 1 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      12           15         + 3 
 
   Small Enterprises              2            4         + 2 
 
   All Enterprises                7            9         + 2 
 
 
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points) 
                            March 2012    June 2012     Change    Sept. 2012    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises            - 4          - 6         - 2            0         + 6 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises     - 5          - 6         - 1          - 1         + 5 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 5          - 6         - 1            1         + 7 
 
   All Enterprises              - 4          - 6         - 2            0         + 6 
 
 
 
 
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points) 
                            March 2012    June 2012     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      March and 
                                                         June 
 
   Large Enterprises              1            2         + 1 
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