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Tankan Outline (June 2013)

July 1, 2013
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

 
Number of Sample Enterprises 
 
                                            Manu-      Nonmanu-      Total      (Response 
                                          facturing    facturing                   rate) 
All Enterprises                                 4,262       6,361       10,623    ( 99.0%) 
of which Large Enterprises                      1,157       1,144        2,301    ( 98.9%) 
         Medium-sized Enterprises               1,145       1,756        2,901    ( 99.1%) 
         Small Enterprises                      1,960       3,461        5,421    ( 99.1%) 
 
[Responding Period: May 28 to June 28] 
 
 
 
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises 
(yen per US dollar) 
                           March 2013 Survey         June 2013 Survey 
                    FY2012         80.56                    82.21 
                        1H         79.15                    79.25 
                        2H         81.94                    85.11 
 
                    FY2013         85.22                    91.20 
                        1H         85.10                    91.25 
                        2H         85.33                    91.16 
 
 
 
 
 
[Business Conditions] 
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points) 
 
                            March 2013    June 2013     Change    Sept. 2013    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
[Large Enterprises] 
                                            (- 1) 
   Manufacturing                - 8            4         +12           10         + 6 
                                            (  9) 
   Nonmanufacturing               6           12         + 6           12           0 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
                                            (-13) 
   Manufacturing                -14          - 4         +10          - 3         + 1 
                                            (  0) 
   Nonmanufacturing               4            7         + 3            7           0 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
                                            (-14) 
   Manufacturing                -19          -14         + 5          - 7         + 7 
                                            (- 8) 
   Nonmanufacturing             - 8          - 4         + 4          - 4           0 
 
[All Enterprises] 
                                            (- 5) 
   All industries               - 8          - 2         + 6            0         + 2 
 
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year) 
           1H...first half (April - September) 
           2H...second half (October - March of the following year) 
        2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey. 
 
 
 
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] 
(%points) 
                            March 2013    June 2013     Change    Sept. 2013    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of 
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") 
   Large Enterprises            -22          -18         + 4          -14         + 4 
   Small Enterprises            -35          -32         + 3          -28         + 4 
 
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products  (Diffusion index of 
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") 
   Large Enterprises            -15          -10         + 5          - 6         + 4 
   Small Enterprises            -22          -21         + 1          -17         + 4 
 
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or 
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") 
   Large Enterprises             22           16         - 6           -           - 
   Small Enterprises             17           16         - 1           -           - 
 
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat 
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") 
   Large Enterprises             19           16         - 3           -           - 
   Small Enterprises             22           21         - 1           -           - 
 
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") 
   Large Enterprises            -10          - 4         + 6          - 1         + 3 
   Small Enterprises            -16          -12         + 4          - 8         + 4 
 
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") 
   Large Enterprises             15           24         + 9           24           0 
   Small Enterprises             26           35         + 9           46         +11 
 
 
 
[Sales] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2012      Revision      FY2013     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 0.4        - 0.4         4.1        + 2.0 
   Nonmanufacturing              0.5        - 0.3         2.5        + 1.5 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 1.9        - 0.4         1.4        + 0.9 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.4        - 0.2         1.8        - 0.1 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 1.5        - 0.2         0.7        + 0.5 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.1        + 0.8         0.2        + 0.4 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries                0.6        - 0.1         2.2        + 1.1 
 
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between 
       the current and the previous survey. 
 
 
[Current Profits] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2012      Revision      FY2013     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                12.4        +14.0        14.6        +17.9 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.3        + 2.2         3.7        + 2.6 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.2        + 9.0         3.4        +10.6 
   Nonmanufacturing             11.0        + 5.3       - 4.1        - 2.3 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 5.9        + 6.8         6.1        + 2.4 
   Nonmanufacturing             10.7        + 6.3       - 0.8        - 0.4 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries                7.2        + 6.8         5.2        + 6.1 
 
 
 
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] 
(%, %points) 
                              FY2012       Changes      FY2013      Changes 
                                                      (Forecast) 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                4.64       + 0.58         5.11      + 0.69 
   Nonmanufacturing             3.86       + 0.10         3.90      + 0.04 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                4.01       + 0.34         4.09      + 0.36 
   Nonmanufacturing             3.06       + 0.16         2.88      - 0.06 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                3.31       + 0.22         3.49      + 0.07 
   Nonmanufacturing             2.61       + 0.14         2.58      - 0.02 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries               3.65       + 0.24         3.76      + 0.18 
 
 
 
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2012      Revision      FY2013     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.6        - 3.9         6.7        + 3.2 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.6        - 2.2         4.9        + 5.4 
   All industries                2.2        - 2.8         5.5        + 4.6 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 2.8        + 0.2         1.5        + 3.3 
   Nonmanufacturing             14.4        + 2.7       - 5.5        + 3.6 
   All industries                9.7        + 1.7       - 2.9        + 3.5 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 4.5        + 1.5        10.4        +15.8 
   Nonmanufacturing             26.7        + 8.1       -17.1        + 7.7 
   All industries               14.4        + 5.8       - 8.1        +10.7 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 0.8        - 2.4         6.4        + 5.0 
   Nonmanufacturing              7.6        + 0.1       - 0.2        + 5.4 
   All industries                5.2        - 0.8         2.0        + 5.3 
 
   * Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard. 
 
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2012      Revision      FY2013     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.7        - 3.6         7.6        + 4.0 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.5        - 1.6         6.5        + 5.4 
   All industries                2.2        - 2.3         6.9        + 4.9 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 3.0        - 0.2         4.1        + 3.1 
   Nonmanufacturing              6.4        + 2.3         3.8        + 3.2 
   All industries                5.0        + 1.3         3.9        + 3.2 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 6.1        + 0.2        17.1        +14.5 
   Nonmanufacturing             36.8        + 7.6       -10.7        + 6.0 
   All industries               18.4        + 5.0       - 1.2        + 9.3 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 0.8        - 2.5         8.3        + 5.3 
   Nonmanufacturing              6.9        + 0.2         3.6        + 5.2 
   All industries                4.7        - 0.8         5.3        + 5.2 
 
   * Compiled under the new lease accounting standard. 
 
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] 
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points) 
                            March 2013    June 2013     Change    Sept. 2013    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises             13           11         - 2            9         - 2 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      15           11         - 4           10         - 1 
 
   Small Enterprises             15           13         - 2            7         - 6 
 
   All Enterprises               14           12         - 2            8         - 4 
 
 
 
 
 
 
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points) 
                            March 2013    June 2013     Change    Sept. 2013    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises              3            2         - 1          - 1         - 3 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises     - 2          - 1         + 1          - 4         - 3 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 3          - 1         + 2          - 7         - 6 
 
   All Enterprises              - 1          - 1           0          - 5         - 4 
 
 
 
 
[Financial Position (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points) 
                            March 2013    June 2013     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      March and 
                                                         June 
 
   Large Enterprises             16           16           0 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      10           14         + 4 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 5          - 3         + 2 
 
   All Enterprises                4            6         + 2 
 
 
 
 
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points) 
                            March 2013    June 2013     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      March and 
                                                         June 
 
   Large Enterprises             17           18         + 1 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      15           17         + 2 
 
   Small Enterprises              3            6         + 3 
 
   All Enterprises               10           11         + 1 
 
 
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points) 
                            March 2013    June 2013     Change    Sept. 2013    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      March and                 June and 
                                                         June                    Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises            - 9          - 1         + 8           11         +12 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises     - 8          - 3         + 5           14         +17 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 6          - 1         + 5           15         +16 
 
   All Enterprises              - 8          - 1         + 7           13         +14 
 
 
 
 
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points) 
                            March 2013    June 2013     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      March and 
                                                         June 
 
   Large Enterprises              3            4         + 1 
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