Tankan Outline (September 2013)
October 1, 2013
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,232 6,316 10,548 ( 99.3%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,152 1,138 2,290 ( 99.4%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,132 1,750 2,882 ( 99.2%)
Small Enterprises 1,948 3,428 5,376 ( 99.4%)
[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
June 2013 Survey Sept.2013 Survey
FY2012 82.21 -
1H 79.25 -
2H 85.11 -
FY2013 91.20 94.45
1H 91.25 94.77
2H 91.16 94.14
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
June 2013 Sept. 2013 Change Dec. 2013 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
( 10)
Manufacturing 4 12 + 8 11 - 1
( 12)
Nonmanufacturing 12 14 + 2 14 0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
(- 3)
Manufacturing - 4 0 + 4 2 + 2
( 7)
Nonmanufacturing 7 8 + 1 7 - 1
[Small Enterprises]
(- 7)
Manufacturing -14 - 9 + 5 - 5 + 4
(- 4)
Nonmanufacturing - 4 - 1 + 3 - 2 - 1
[All Enterprises]
( 0)
All industries - 2 2 + 4 3 + 1
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
June 2013 Sept. 2013 Change Dec. 2013 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -18 -14 + 4 -12 + 2
Small Enterprises -32 -27 + 5 -25 + 2
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -10 -10 0 - 7 + 3
Small Enterprises -21 -18 + 3 -18 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 16 14 - 2 - -
Small Enterprises 16 14 - 2 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 16 14 - 2 - -
Small Enterprises 21 19 - 2 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 4 - 2 + 2 - 3 - 1
Small Enterprises -12 -10 + 2 - 6 + 4
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 24 22 - 2 22 0
Small Enterprises 35 36 + 1 45 + 9
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2012 Revision FY2013 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 0.4 - 5.0 + 0.9
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 - 3.2 + 0.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 1.9 - 2.1 + 0.7
Nonmanufacturing 2.4 - 2.3 + 0.5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 1.5 - 1.5 + 0.8
Nonmanufacturing 2.1 - 0.9 + 0.7
[All Enterprises]
All industries 0.6 - 2.9 + 0.7
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2012 Revision FY2013 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.4 - 24.0 + 8.2
Nonmanufacturing 2.3 - 6.2 + 2.5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.2 - 6.6 + 3.1
Nonmanufacturing 11.0 - - 3.2 + 1.0
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.9 - 3.3 - 2.6
Nonmanufacturing 10.7 - 1.1 + 2.0
[All Enterprises]
All industries 7.2 - 9.2 + 3.7
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2012 Changes FY2013 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.64 - 5.48 + 0.37
Nonmanufacturing 3.86 - 3.97 + 0.07
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.01 - 4.19 + 0.10
Nonmanufacturing 3.06 - 2.89 + 0.01
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.31 - 3.37 - 0.12
Nonmanufacturing 2.61 - 2.62 + 0.04
[All Enterprises]
All industries 3.65 - 3.87 + 0.11
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2012 Revision FY2013 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.6 - 6.6 - 0.1
Nonmanufacturing 2.6 - 4.4 - 0.5
All industries 2.2 - 5.1 - 0.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.8 - 1.9 + 0.4
Nonmanufacturing 14.4 - - 2.5 + 3.2
All industries 9.7 - - 0.9 + 2.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 4.5 - 14.2 + 3.4
Nonmanufacturing 26.7 - - 8.0 +11.0
All industries 14.4 - - 0.7 + 8.0
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.8 - 7.0 + 0.6
Nonmanufacturing 7.6 - 1.3 + 1.6
All industries 5.2 - 3.3 + 1.2
* Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2012 Revision FY2013 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.7 - 7.3 - 0.3
Nonmanufacturing 2.5 - 5.7 - 0.7
All industries 2.2 - 6.3 - 0.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.0 - 4.2 + 0.1
Nonmanufacturing 6.4 - 6.4 + 2.5
All industries 5.0 - 5.5 + 1.5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 6.1 - 20.0 + 2.5
Nonmanufacturing 36.8 - - 4.1 + 7.3
All industries 18.4 - 4.1 + 5.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.8 - 8.5 + 0.2
Nonmanufacturing 6.9 - 4.4 + 0.7
All industries 4.7 - 5.8 + 0.5
* Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
June 2013 Sept. 2013 Change Dec. 2013 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises 11 9 - 2 6 - 3
Medium-sized Enterprises 11 10 - 1 8 - 2
Small Enterprises 13 11 - 2 7 - 4
All Enterprises 12 10 - 2 7 - 3
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
June 2013 Sept. 2013 Change Dec. 2013 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises 2 - 1 - 3 - 3 - 2
Medium-sized Enterprises - 1 - 5 - 4 - 7 - 2
Small Enterprises - 1 - 7 - 6 - 9 - 2
All Enterprises - 1 - 5 - 4 - 8 - 3
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
June 2013 Sept. 2013 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 16 17 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 14 14 0
Small Enterprises - 3 - 2 + 1
All Enterprises 6 7 + 1
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2013 Sept. 2013 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 18 19 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 17 17 0
Small Enterprises 6 7 + 1
All Enterprises 11 12 + 1
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
June 2013 Sept. 2013 Change Dec. 2013 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises - 1 - 2 - 1 6 + 8
Medium-sized Enterprises - 3 - 3 0 6 + 9
Small Enterprises - 1 - 3 - 2 8 +11
All Enterprises - 1 - 2 - 1 7 + 9
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2013 Sept. 2013 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 4 5 + 1
