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Tankan Outline (September 2013)

October 1, 2013
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises 
 
                                            Manu-      Nonmanu-      Total      (Response 
                                          facturing    facturing                   rate) 
All Enterprises                                 4,232       6,316       10,548    ( 99.3%) 
of which Large Enterprises                      1,152       1,138        2,290    ( 99.4%) 
         Medium-sized Enterprises               1,132       1,750        2,882    ( 99.2%) 
         Small Enterprises                      1,948       3,428        5,376    ( 99.4%) 
 
[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30] 
 
 
 
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises 
(yen per US dollar) 
                           June 2013 Survey          Sept.2013 Survey 
                    FY2012         82.21                       - 
                        1H         79.25                       - 
                        2H         85.11                       - 
 
                    FY2013         91.20                    94.45 
                        1H         91.25                    94.77 
                        2H         91.16                    94.14 
 
 
 
 
 
[Business Conditions] 
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points) 
 
                             June 2013   Sept. 2013     Change     Dec. 2013    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                       June and                Sept. and 
                                                        Sept.                     Dec. 
[Large Enterprises] 
                                            ( 10) 
   Manufacturing                  4           12         + 8           11         - 1 
                                            ( 12) 
   Nonmanufacturing              12           14         + 2           14           0 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
                                            (- 3) 
   Manufacturing                - 4            0         + 4            2         + 2 
                                            (  7) 
   Nonmanufacturing               7            8         + 1            7         - 1 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
                                            (- 7) 
   Manufacturing                -14          - 9         + 5          - 5         + 4 
                                            (- 4) 
   Nonmanufacturing             - 4          - 1         + 3          - 2         - 1 
 
[All Enterprises] 
                                            (  0) 
   All industries               - 2            2         + 4            3         + 1 
 
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year) 
           1H...first half (April - September) 
           2H...second half (October - March of the following year) 
        2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey. 
 
 
 
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] 
(%points) 
                             June 2013   Sept. 2013     Change     Dec. 2013    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                       June and                Sept. and 
                                                        Sept.                     Dec. 
 
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of 
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") 
   Large Enterprises            -18          -14         + 4          -12         + 2 
   Small Enterprises            -32          -27         + 5          -25         + 2 
 
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products  (Diffusion index of 
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") 
   Large Enterprises            -10          -10           0          - 7         + 3 
   Small Enterprises            -21          -18         + 3          -18           0 
 
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or 
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") 
   Large Enterprises             16           14         - 2           -           - 
   Small Enterprises             16           14         - 2           -           - 
 
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat 
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") 
   Large Enterprises             16           14         - 2           -           - 
   Small Enterprises             21           19         - 2           -           - 
 
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") 
   Large Enterprises            - 4          - 2         + 2          - 3         - 1 
   Small Enterprises            -12          -10         + 2          - 6         + 4 
 
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") 
   Large Enterprises             24           22         - 2           22           0 
   Small Enterprises             35           36         + 1           45         + 9 
 
 
 
[Sales] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2012      Revision      FY2013     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 0.4          -           5.0        + 0.9 
   Nonmanufacturing              0.5          -           3.2        + 0.6 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 1.9          -           2.1        + 0.7 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.4          -           2.3        + 0.5 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 1.5          -           1.5        + 0.8 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.1          -           0.9        + 0.7 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries                0.6          -           2.9        + 0.7 
 
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between 
       the current and the previous survey. 
 
 
[Current Profits] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2012      Revision      FY2013     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                12.4          -          24.0        + 8.2 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.3          -           6.2        + 2.5 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.2          -           6.6        + 3.1 
   Nonmanufacturing             11.0          -         - 3.2        + 1.0 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 5.9          -           3.3        - 2.6 
   Nonmanufacturing             10.7          -           1.1        + 2.0 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries                7.2          -           9.2        + 3.7 
 
 
 
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] 
(%, %points) 
                              FY2012       Changes      FY2013      Changes 
                                                      (Forecast) 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                4.64          -           5.48      + 0.37 
   Nonmanufacturing             3.86          -           3.97      + 0.07 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                4.01          -           4.19      + 0.10 
   Nonmanufacturing             3.06          -           2.89      + 0.01 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                3.31          -           3.37      - 0.12 
   Nonmanufacturing             2.61          -           2.62      + 0.04 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries               3.65          -           3.87      + 0.11 
 
 
 
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2012      Revision      FY2013     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.6          -           6.6        - 0.1 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.6          -           4.4        - 0.5 
   All industries                2.2          -           5.1        - 0.3 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 2.8          -           1.9        + 0.4 
   Nonmanufacturing             14.4          -         - 2.5        + 3.2 
   All industries                9.7          -         - 0.9        + 2.1 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 4.5          -          14.2        + 3.4 
   Nonmanufacturing             26.7          -         - 8.0        +11.0 
   All industries               14.4          -         - 0.7        + 8.0 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 0.8          -           7.0        + 0.6 
   Nonmanufacturing              7.6          -           1.3        + 1.6 
   All industries                5.2          -           3.3        + 1.2 
 
   * Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard. 
 
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2012      Revision      FY2013     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.7          -           7.3        - 0.3 
   Nonmanufacturing              2.5          -           5.7        - 0.7 
   All industries                2.2          -           6.3        - 0.6 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 3.0          -           4.2        + 0.1 
   Nonmanufacturing              6.4          -           6.4        + 2.5 
   All industries                5.0          -           5.5        + 1.5 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing               - 6.1          -          20.0        + 2.5 
   Nonmanufacturing             36.8          -         - 4.1        + 7.3 
   All industries               18.4          -           4.1        + 5.4 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 0.8          -           8.5        + 0.2 
   Nonmanufacturing              6.9          -           4.4        + 0.7 
   All industries                4.7          -           5.8        + 0.5 
 
   * Compiled under the new lease accounting standard. 
 
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] 
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points) 
                             June 2013   Sept. 2013     Change     Dec. 2013    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                       June and                Sept. and 
                                                        Sept.                     Dec. 
 
   Large Enterprises             11            9         - 2            6         - 3 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      11           10         - 1            8         - 2 
 
   Small Enterprises             13           11         - 2            7         - 4 
 
   All Enterprises               12           10         - 2            7         - 3 
 
 
 
 
 
 
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points) 
                             June 2013   Sept. 2013     Change     Dec. 2013    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                       June and                Sept. and 
                                                        Sept.                     Dec. 
 
   Large Enterprises              2          - 1         - 3          - 3         - 2 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises     - 1          - 5         - 4          - 7         - 2 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 1          - 7         - 6          - 9         - 2 
 
   All Enterprises              - 1          - 5         - 4          - 8         - 3 
 
 
 
 
[Financial Position (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points) 
                             June 2013   Sept. 2013     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                       June and 
                                                        Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises             16           17         + 1 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      14           14           0 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 3          - 2         + 1 
 
   All Enterprises                6            7         + 1 
 
 
 
 
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points) 
                             June 2013   Sept. 2013     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                       June and 
                                                        Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises             18           19         + 1 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      17           17           0 
 
   Small Enterprises              6            7         + 1 
 
   All Enterprises               11           12         + 1 
 
 
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points) 
                             June 2013   Sept. 2013     Change     Dec. 2013    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                       June and                Sept. and 
                                                        Sept.                     Dec. 
 
   Large Enterprises            - 1          - 2         - 1            6         + 8 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises     - 3          - 3           0            6         + 9 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 1          - 3         - 2            8         +11 
 
   All Enterprises              - 1          - 2         - 1            7         + 9 
 
 
 
 
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points) 
                             June 2013   Sept. 2013     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                       June and 
                                                        Sept. 
 
   Large Enterprises              4            5         + 1 
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