Tankan Outline (December 2013)
December 16, 2013
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,216 6,293 10,509 ( 99.4%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,149 1,136 2,285 ( 99.3%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,126 1,742 2,868 ( 99.6%)
Small Enterprises 1,941 3,415 5,356 ( 99.3%)
[Responding Period: November 14 to December 13]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
June 2013 Survey Sept. 2013 Survey Dec. 2013 Survey
FY2012 82.21 - -
1H 79.25 - -
2H 85.11 - -
FY2013 91.20 94.45 96.78
1H 91.25 94.77 97.60
2H 91.16 94.14 95.97
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Sept. 2013 Dec. 2013 Change March 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
Sept. and Dec. and
Dec. March
[Large Enterprises]
( 11)
Manufacturing 12 16 + 4 14 - 2
( 14)
Nonmanufacturing 14 20 + 6 17 - 3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 2)
Manufacturing 0 6 + 6 3 - 3
( 7)
Nonmanufacturing 8 11 + 3 10 - 1
[Small Enterprises]
(- 5)
Manufacturing - 9 1 +10 - 1 - 2
(- 2)
Nonmanufacturing - 1 4 + 5 1 - 3
[All Enterprises]
( 3)
All industries 2 8 + 6 6 - 2
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
Sept. 2013 Dec. 2013 Change March 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
Sept. and Dec. and
Dec. March
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -14 -11 + 3 -12 - 1
Small Enterprises -27 -21 + 6 -21 0
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -10 - 9 + 1 - 8 + 1
Small Enterprises -18 -15 + 3 -14 + 1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 15 + 1 - -
Small Enterprises 14 14 0 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 12 - 2 - -
Small Enterprises 19 15 - 4 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 2 - 4 - 2 - 3 + 1
Small Enterprises -10 - 7 + 3 - 5 + 2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 22 21 - 1 20 - 1
Small Enterprises 36 37 + 1 44 + 7
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2012 Revision FY2013 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 0.4 - 5.7 + 0.7
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 - 2.9 - 0.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 1.9 - 3.0 + 0.9
Nonmanufacturing 2.4 - 2.8 + 0.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 1.5 - 3.1 + 1.6
Nonmanufacturing 2.1 - 2.4 + 1.5
[All Enterprises]
All industries 0.6 - 3.4 + 0.5
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2012 Revision FY2013 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.4 - 34.7 + 8.6
Nonmanufacturing 2.3 - 14.9 + 8.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.2 - 15.8 + 8.6
Nonmanufacturing 11.0 - 1.4 + 4.8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.9 - 10.5 + 7.0
Nonmanufacturing 10.7 - 6.0 + 4.8
[All Enterprises]
All industries 7.2 - 17.3 + 7.5
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2012 Changes FY2013 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.64 - 5.92 + 0.44
Nonmanufacturing 3.86 - 4.31 + 0.34
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.01 - 4.51 + 0.32
Nonmanufacturing 3.06 - 3.02 + 0.13
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.31 - 3.55 + 0.18
Nonmanufacturing 2.61 - 2.70 + 0.08
[All Enterprises]
All industries 3.65 - 4.14 + 0.27
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2012 Revision FY2013 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.6 - 4.9 - 1.7
Nonmanufacturing 2.6 - 4.4 0.0
All industries 2.2 - 4.6 - 0.5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.8 - 1.3 - 0.7
Nonmanufacturing 14.4 - 0.6 + 3.2
All industries 9.7 - 0.8 + 1.7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 4.5 - 11.7 - 2.2
Nonmanufacturing 26.7 - 6.0 +15.1
All industries 14.4 - 7.9 + 8.6
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.8 - 5.3 - 1.6
Nonmanufacturing 7.6 - 4.1 + 2.7
All industries 5.2 - 4.5 + 1.2
* Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2012 Revision FY2013 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.7 - 5.5 - 1.6
Nonmanufacturing 2.5 - 4.0 - 1.6
All industries 2.2 - 4.6 - 1.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.0 - 3.1 - 1.0
Nonmanufacturing 6.4 - 8.5 + 2.0
All industries 5.0 - 6.4 + 0.8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 6.1 - 17.2 - 2.4
Nonmanufacturing 36.8 - 7.3 +11.9
All industries 18.4 - 10.7 + 6.3
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.8 - 6.7 - 1.6
Nonmanufacturing 6.9 - 5.2 + 0.7
All industries 4.7 - 5.7 - 0.1
* Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
Sept. 2013 Dec. 2013 Change March 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
Sept. and Dec. and
Dec. March
Large Enterprises 9 8 - 1 7 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 10 9 - 1 7 - 2
Small Enterprises 11 7 - 4 4 - 3
All Enterprises 10 8 - 2 5 - 3
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
Sept. 2013 Dec. 2013 Change March 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
Sept. and Dec. and
Dec. March
Large Enterprises - 1 - 3 - 2 - 3 0
Medium-sized Enterprises - 5 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 1
Small Enterprises - 7 -12 - 5 -14 - 2
All Enterprises - 5 -10 - 5 -11 - 1
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
Sept. 2013 Dec. 2013 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 17 17 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 14 15 + 1
Small Enterprises - 2 1 + 3
All Enterprises 7 8 + 1
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
Sept. 2013 Dec. 2013 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 19 20 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 17 18 + 1
Small Enterprises 7 8 + 1
All Enterprises 12 13 + 1
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
Sept. 2013 Dec. 2013 Change March 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
Sept. and Dec. and
Dec. March
Large Enterprises - 2 - 7 - 5 2 + 9
Medium-sized Enterprises - 3 - 6 - 3 3 + 9
Small Enterprises - 3 - 4 - 1 4 + 8
All Enterprises - 2 - 5 - 3 4 + 9
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
Sept. 2013 Dec. 2013 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 5 6 + 1
