Tankan Outline (March 2014)
April 1, 2014
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,206 | 6,277 | 10,483 | ( 99.1%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,147 | 1,138 | 2,285 | ( 99.3%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,128 | 1,741 | 2,869 | ( 99.1%) |
Small Enterprises | 1,931 | 3,398 | 5,329 | ( 98.9%) |
[Responding Period: February 24 to March 31]
Dec. 2013 Survey | March 2014 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2013 | 96.78 | 98.37 |
1H | 97.60 | 97.66 |
2H | 95.97 | 99.06 |
FY2014 | - | 99.48 |
1H | - | 99.38 |
2H | - | 99.58 |
Dec. 2013 | March 2014 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2014 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 14) | ||||
16 | 17 | +1 | 8 | -9 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 17) | ||||
20 | 24 | +4 | 13 | -11 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 3) | ||||
6 | 12 | +6 | 3 | -9 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 10) | ||||
11 | 17 | +6 | 5 | -12 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( -1) | ||||
1 | 4 | +3 | -6 | -10 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 1) | ||||
4 | 8 | +4 | -4 | -12 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 6) | ||||
8 | 12 | +4 | 1 | -11 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Dec. 2013 | March 2014 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2014 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -11 | -8 | +3 | -14 | -6 |
Small Enterprises | -21 | -17 | +4 | -23 | -6 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -9 | -9 | 0 | -7 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | -15 | -13 | +2 | -13 | 0 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 15 | 13 | -2 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 14 | 13 | -1 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 12 | 12 | 0 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 15 | 12 | -3 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -4 | -3 | +1 | -3 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -7 | -5 | +2 | -2 | +3 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 21 | 22 | +1 | 22 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 37 | 39 | +2 | 46 | +7 |
FY2013 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2014 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.4 | -0.3 | 1.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.3 | +0.4 | 1.0 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.1 | +0.1 | 0.7 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.4 | -0.4 | 1.2 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.9 | +0.7 | 0.9 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.1 | +1.7 | -0.9 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 3.8 | +0.4 | 0.7 | - |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2013 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2014 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 43.3 | +6.4 | -1.5 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 16.1 | +1.1 | -3.1 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 17.6 | +1.5 | -7.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.4 | 0.0 | -2.1 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 10.0 | -0.5 | 2.7 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.4 | +5.1 | -1.1 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 20.9 | +3.1 | -2.2 | - |
FY2013 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY2014 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.31 | +0.39 | 6.14 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.33 | +0.02 | 4.16 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.58 | +0.07 | 4.23 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.03 | +0.01 | 2.93 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.51 | -0.04 | 3.57 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.79 | +0.09 | 2.79 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.25 | +0.11 | 4.13 | - |
FY2013 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2014 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.1 | -2.6 | 3.6 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.8 | +0.4 | -1.6 | - |
All industries | 3.9 | -0.6 | 0.1 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -1.7 | -2.9 | 8.7 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.7 | +4.2 | -5.4 | - |
All industries | 2.3 | +1.5 | -0.3 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 13.3 | +1.4 | -16.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 14.2 | +7.8 | -28.9 | - |
All industries | 13.9 | +5.6 | -24.7 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.1 | -2.0 | 1.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.3 | +2.2 | -6.9 | - |
All industries | 5.2 | +0.7 | -4.2 | - |
- Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
FY2013 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2014 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.8 | -2.5 | 3.9 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.6 | -0.4 | 1.3 | - |
All industries | 3.3 | -1.2 | 2.2 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -0.8 | -3.8 | 10.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.8 | +0.3 | -0.9 | - |
All industries | 5.1 | -1.3 | 3.1 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 17.9 | +0.6 | -14.4 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 12.7 | +5.0 | -18.9 | - |
All industries | 14.5 | +3.4 | -17.3 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.3 | -2.3 | 2.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.7 | +0.5 | -2.1 | - |
All industries | 5.2 | -0.5 | -0.7 | - |
- Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
Dec. 2013 | March 2014 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2014 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 8 | 6 | -2 | 6 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 9 | 4 | -5 | 4 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 7 | 4 | -3 | 4 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 8 | 5 | -3 | 5 | 0 |
Dec. 2013 | March 2014 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2014 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -3 | -6 | -3 | -4 | +2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -8 | -12 | -4 | -10 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | -12 | -15 | -3 | -14 | +1 |
All Enterprises | -10 | -12 | -2 | -11 | +1 |
Dec. 2013 | March 2014 | Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 17 | 18 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 15 | 14 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 1 | 1 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 8 | 8 | 0 |
Dec. 2013 | March 2014 | Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 20 | 21 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 18 | 19 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 8 | 9 | +1 |
All Enterprises | 13 | 15 | +2 |
Dec. 2013 | March 2014 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2014 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -7 | -7 | 0 | 1 | +8 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -6 | -7 | -1 | 4 | +11 |
Small Enterprises | -4 | -6 | -2 | 4 | +10 |
All Enterprises | -5 | -7 | -2 | 4 | +11 |
Dec. 2013 | March 2014 | Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 37 | 29 | -8 |
- Figures for both the December 2013 survey and the March 2014 survey are based on CP-Issuing Enterprises.