Tankan Outline (March 2014)
April 1, 2014
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,206 6,277 10,483 ( 99.1%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,147 1,138 2,285 ( 99.3%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,128 1,741 2,869 ( 99.1%)
Small Enterprises 1,931 3,398 5,329 ( 98.9%)
[Responding Period: February 24 to March 31]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
Dec. 2013 Survey March 2014 Survey
FY2013 96.78 98.37
1H 97.60 97.66
2H 95.97 99.06
FY2014 - 99.48
1H - 99.38
2H - 99.58
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change June 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
[Large Enterprises]
( 14)
Manufacturing 16 17 + 1 8 - 9
( 17)
Nonmanufacturing 20 24 + 4 13 -11
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 3)
Manufacturing 6 12 + 6 3 - 9
( 10)
Nonmanufacturing 11 17 + 6 5 -12
[Small Enterprises]
(- 1)
Manufacturing 1 4 + 3 - 6 -10
( 1)
Nonmanufacturing 4 8 + 4 - 4 -12
[All Enterprises]
( 6)
All industries 8 12 + 4 1 -11
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change June 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -11 - 8 + 3 -14 - 6
Small Enterprises -21 -17 + 4 -23 - 6
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 9 - 9 0 - 7 + 2
Small Enterprises -15 -13 + 2 -13 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 15 13 - 2 - -
Small Enterprises 14 13 - 1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 12 0 - -
Small Enterprises 15 12 - 3 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 4 - 3 + 1 - 3 0
Small Enterprises - 7 - 5 + 2 - 2 + 3
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 21 22 + 1 22 0
Small Enterprises 37 39 + 2 46 + 7
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.4 - 0.3 1.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.3 + 0.4 1.0 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.1 + 0.1 0.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.4 - 0.4 1.2 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.9 + 0.7 0.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.1 + 1.7 - 0.9 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 3.8 + 0.4 0.7 -
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 43.3 + 6.4 - 1.5 -
Nonmanufacturing 16.1 + 1.1 - 3.1 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.6 + 1.5 - 7.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.4 0.0 - 2.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 10.0 - 0.5 2.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 11.4 + 5.1 - 1.1 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 20.9 + 3.1 - 2.2 -
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2013 Changes FY2014 Changes
(Forecast) (Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.31 + 0.39 6.14 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.33 + 0.02 4.16 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.58 + 0.07 4.23 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.03 + 0.01 2.93 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.51 - 0.04 3.57 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.79 + 0.09 2.79 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.25 + 0.11 4.13 -
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.1 - 2.6 3.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.8 + 0.4 - 1.6 -
All industries 3.9 - 0.6 0.1 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 1.7 - 2.9 8.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.7 + 4.2 - 5.4 -
All industries 2.3 + 1.5 - 0.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.3 + 1.4 -16.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 14.2 + 7.8 -28.9 -
All industries 13.9 + 5.6 -24.7 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.1 - 2.0 1.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.3 + 2.2 - 6.9 -
All industries 5.2 + 0.7 - 4.2 -
* Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.8 - 2.5 3.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.6 - 0.4 1.3 -
All industries 3.3 - 1.2 2.2 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 0.8 - 3.8 10.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.8 + 0.3 - 0.9 -
All industries 5.1 - 1.3 3.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.9 + 0.6 -14.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 12.7 + 5.0 -18.9 -
All industries 14.5 + 3.4 -17.3 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 - 2.3 2.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.7 + 0.5 - 2.1 -
All industries 5.2 - 0.5 - 0.7 -
* Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change June 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises 8 6 - 2 6 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 9 4 - 5 4 0
Small Enterprises 7 4 - 3 4 0
All Enterprises 8 5 - 3 5 0
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change June 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises - 3 - 6 - 3 - 4 + 2
Medium-sized Enterprises - 8 -12 - 4 -10 + 2
Small Enterprises -12 -15 - 3 -14 + 1
All Enterprises -10 -12 - 2 -11 + 1
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 17 18 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 15 14 - 1
Small Enterprises 1 1 0
All Enterprises 8 8 0
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 20 21 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 18 19 + 1
Small Enterprises 8 9 + 1
All Enterprises 13 15 + 2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change June 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises - 7 - 7 0 1 + 8
Medium-sized Enterprises - 6 - 7 - 1 4 +11
Small Enterprises - 4 - 6 - 2 4 +10
All Enterprises - 5 - 7 - 2 4 +11
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises*)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 37 29 - 8
* Figures for both the December 2013 survey and the March 2014 survey are based on CP-Issuing Enterprises.
