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Tankan Outline (March 2014)

April 1, 2014
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,206 6,277 10,483 ( 99.1%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,147 1,138 2,285 ( 99.3%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,128 1,741 2,869 ( 99.1%)
Small Enterprises 1,931 3,398 5,329 ( 98.9%)

[Responding Period: February 24 to March 31]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  Dec. 2013 Survey March 2014 Survey
FY2013 96.78 98.37
1H 97.60 97.66
2H 95.97 99.06
FY2014 - 99.48
1H - 99.38
2H - 99.58
[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2014
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 14)      
16 17 +1 8 -9
Nonmanufacturing   ( 17)      
20 24 +4 13 -11
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 3)      
6 12 +6 3 -9
Nonmanufacturing   ( 10)      
11 17 +6 5 -12
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( -1)      
1 4 +3 -6 -10
Nonmanufacturing   ( 1)      
4 8 +4 -4 -12
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 6)      
8 12 +4 1 -11

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
  Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2014
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -11 -8 +3 -14 -6
Small Enterprises -21 -17 +4 -23 -6
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -9 -9 0 -7 +2
Small Enterprises -15 -13 +2 -13 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 15 13 -2 - -
Small Enterprises 14 13 -1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 12 0 - -
Small Enterprises 15 12 -3 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -4 -3 +1 -3 0
Small Enterprises -7 -5 +2 -2 +3
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 21 22 +1 22 0
Small Enterprises 37 39 +2 46 +7
[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2013
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2014
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.4 -0.3 1.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.3 +0.4 1.0 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.1 +0.1 0.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.4 -0.4 1.2 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.9 +0.7 0.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.1 +1.7 -0.9 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 3.8 +0.4 0.7 -

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2013
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2014
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 43.3 +6.4 -1.5 -
Nonmanufacturing 16.1 +1.1 -3.1 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.6 +1.5 -7.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.4 0.0 -2.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 10.0 -0.5 2.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 11.4 +5.1 -1.1 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 20.9 +3.1 -2.2 -
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
  FY2013
(Forecast)
Changes FY2014
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.31 +0.39 6.14 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.33 +0.02 4.16 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.58 +0.07 4.23 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.03 +0.01 2.93 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.51 -0.04 3.57 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.79 +0.09 2.79 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.25 +0.11 4.13 -
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2013
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2014
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.1 -2.6 3.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.8 +0.4 -1.6 -
All industries 3.9 -0.6 0.1 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing -1.7 -2.9 8.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.7 +4.2 -5.4 -
All industries 2.3 +1.5 -0.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.3 +1.4 -16.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 14.2 +7.8 -28.9 -
All industries 13.9 +5.6 -24.7 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.1 -2.0 1.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.3 +2.2 -6.9 -
All industries 5.2 +0.7 -4.2 -
  • Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2013
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2014
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.8 -2.5 3.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.6 -0.4 1.3 -
All industries 3.3 -1.2 2.2 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing -0.8 -3.8 10.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.8 +0.3 -0.9 -
All industries 5.1 -1.3 3.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.9 +0.6 -14.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 12.7 +5.0 -18.9 -
All industries 14.5 +3.4 -17.3 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 -2.3 2.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.7 +0.5 -2.1 -
All industries 5.2 -0.5 -0.7 -
  • Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2014
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 8 6 -2 6 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 9 4 -5 4 0
Small Enterprises 7 4 -3 4 0
All Enterprises 8 5 -3 5 0
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2014
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -3 -6 -3 -4 +2
Medium-sized Enterprises -8 -12 -4 -10 +2
Small Enterprises -12 -15 -3 -14 +1
All Enterprises -10 -12 -2 -11 +1
[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 17 18 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 15 14 -1
Small Enterprises 1 1 0
All Enterprises 8 8 0
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 20 21 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 18 19 +1
Small Enterprises 8 9 +1
All Enterprises 13 15 +2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2014
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -7 -7 0 1 +8
Medium-sized Enterprises -6 -7 -1 4 +11
Small Enterprises -4 -6 -2 4 +10
All Enterprises -5 -7 -2 4 +11
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises*)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2013 March 2014 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 37 29 -8
  • Figures for both the December 2013 survey and the March 2014 survey are based on CP-Issuing Enterprises.