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Tankan Outline (June 2014)

July 1, 2014
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises
	Manu- facturing	Nonmanu- facturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises	4,179	6,248	10,427	( 99.2%)
of which Large Enterprises	1,143	1,136	2,279	( 99.0%)
Medium-sized Enterprises	1,119	1,736	2,855	( 99.5%)
Small Enterprises	1,917	3,376	5,293	( 99.2%)

[Responding Period: May 28 to June 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
	March 2014 Survey	June 2014 Survey
FY2013	98.37	99.17
1H	97.66	97.87
2H	99.06	100.44
FY2014	99.48	100.18
1H	99.38	100.14
2H	99.58	100.23

[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
	March 2014	June 2014	Change between March and June	Sept. 2014 (Forecast)	Change between June and Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 8)
Manufacturing	17	12	-5	15	+3
Nonmanufacturing		( 13)
Nonmanufacturing	24	19	-5	19	0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 3)
Manufacturing	12	8	-4	8	0
Nonmanufacturing		( 5)
Nonmanufacturing	17	10	-7	8	-2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( -6)
Manufacturing	4	1	-3	3	+2
Nonmanufacturing		( -4)
Nonmanufacturing	8	2	-6	0	-2
[All Enterprises]
All industries		( 1)
All industries	12	7	-5	7	0

(Notes)

FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
	March 2014	June 2014	Change between March and June	Sept. 2014 (Forecast)	Change between June and Sept.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-8	-13	-5	-11	+2
Small Enterprises	-17	-21	-4	-19	+2
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-9	-5	+4	-4	+1
Small Enterprises	-13	-8	+5	-8	0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	13	12	-1	-	-
Small Enterprises	13	12	-1	-	-
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	12	10	-2	-	-
Small Enterprises	12	13	+1	-	-
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	-3	-2	+1	-2	0
Small Enterprises	-5	-4	+1	0	+4
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	22	20	-2	19	-1
Small Enterprises	39	40	+1	43	+3

[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	7.1	+1.6	1.4	+1.7
Nonmanufacturing	5.4	+2.0	2.1	+3.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.8	+0.7	1.1	+1.0
Nonmanufacturing	3.2	+0.8	0.8	+0.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.9	+1.0	1.0	+1.1
Nonmanufacturing	6.3	+2.1	-1.8	+1.3
[All Enterprises]
All industries	5.5	+1.6	0.9	+1.8

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	48.7	+3.8	-3.0	+2.1
Nonmanufacturing	24.6	+7.3	-6.1	+4.0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	25.4	+6.6	-8.5	+4.9
Nonmanufacturing	9.0	+7.5	-9.1	-0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	15.3	+4.8	0.2	+2.3
Nonmanufacturing	21.3	+8.8	-6.7	+2.7
[All Enterprises]
All industries	28.4	+6.2	-5.4	+2.7

[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
	FY2013	Changes	FY2014 (Forecast)	Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	6.45	+0.14	6.17	+0.03
Nonmanufacturing	4.56	+0.23	4.19	+0.03
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.85	+0.27	4.39	+0.16
Nonmanufacturing	3.23	+0.20	2.91	-0.02
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.64	+0.13	3.61	+0.04
Nonmanufacturing	2.98	+0.19	2.83	+0.04
[All Enterprises]
All industries	4.44	+0.19	4.16	+0.03

[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-1.4	-3.4	12.7	+5.1
Nonmanufacturing	4.4	-0.4	4.9	+6.1
All industries	2.5	-1.4	7.4	+5.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-3.6	-2.0	15.9	+4.5
Nonmanufacturing	8.0	+3.1	-5.2	+3.3
All industries	3.6	+1.3	2.2	+3.8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	13.9	+0.6	-5.4	+13.3
Nonmanufacturing	24.5	+9.0	-26.0	+13.4
All industries	21.0	+6.2	-19.7	+13.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	0.5	-2.5	10.1	+6.1
Nonmanufacturing	8.2	+1.7	-2.4	+6.6
All industries	5.6	+0.3	1.7	+6.5

Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.

[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-0.8	-3.6	13.7	+5.6
Nonmanufacturing	4.4	+0.8	5.5	+5.0
All industries	2.6	-0.7	8.3	+5.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-4.1	-3.3	18.2	+3.8
Nonmanufacturing	11.8	+2.7	-0.6	+3.0
All industries	5.6	+0.5	6.0	+3.3
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	17.1	-0.7	-3.5	+11.9
Nonmanufacturing	19.6	+6.1	-16.0	+9.9
All industries	18.7	+3.7	-11.8	+10.6
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	1.1	-3.1	11.7	+6.1
Nonmanufacturing	7.7	+1.9	1.2	+5.3
All industries	5.3	+0.1	4.7	+5.6

Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.

[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
	March 2014	June 2014	Change between March and June	Sept. 2014 (Forecast)	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	6	7	+1	5	-2
Medium-sized Enterprises	4	6	+2	3	-3
Small Enterprises	4	5	+1	2	-3
All Enterprises	5	5	0	3	-2

[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
	March 2014	June 2014	Change between March and June	Sept. 2014 (Forecast)	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	-6	-6	0	-6	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	-12	-10	+2	-13	-3
Small Enterprises	-15	-12	+3	-17	-5
All Enterprises	-12	-10	+2	-14	-4

[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
	March 2014	June 2014	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	18	21	+3
Medium-sized Enterprises	14	16	+2
Small Enterprises	1	3	+2
All Enterprises	8	10	+2

[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
	March 2014	June 2014	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	21	23	+2
Medium-sized Enterprises	19	19	0
Small Enterprises	9	11	+2
All Enterprises	15	15	0

[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
	March 2014	June 2014	Change between March and June	Sept. 2014 (Forecast)	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	-7	-6	+1	1	+7
Medium-sized Enterprises	-7	-7	0	1	+8
Small Enterprises	-6	-6	0	3	+9
All Enterprises	-7	-6	+1	2	+8

[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
	March 2014	June 2014	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	29	31	+2