Tankan Outline (June 2014)
July 1, 2014
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,179 6,248 10,427 ( 99.2%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,143 1,136 2,279 ( 99.0%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,119 1,736 2,855 ( 99.5%)
Small Enterprises 1,917 3,376 5,293 ( 99.2%)
[Responding Period: May 28 to June 30]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
March 2014 Survey June 2014 Survey
FY2013 98.37 99.17
1H 97.66 97.87
2H 99.06 100.44
FY2014 99.48 100.18
1H 99.38 100.14
2H 99.58 100.23
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
March 2014 June 2014 Change Sept. 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
( 8)
Manufacturing 17 12 - 5 15 + 3
( 13)
Nonmanufacturing 24 19 - 5 19 0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 3)
Manufacturing 12 8 - 4 8 0
( 5)
Nonmanufacturing 17 10 - 7 8 - 2
[Small Enterprises]
(- 6)
Manufacturing 4 1 - 3 3 + 2
(- 4)
Nonmanufacturing 8 2 - 6 0 - 2
[All Enterprises]
( 1)
All industries 12 7 - 5 7 0
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
March 2014 June 2014 Change Sept. 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 8 -13 - 5 -11 + 2
Small Enterprises -17 -21 - 4 -19 + 2
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 9 - 5 + 4 - 4 + 1
Small Enterprises -13 - 8 + 5 - 8 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 13 12 - 1 - -
Small Enterprises 13 12 - 1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 10 - 2 - -
Small Enterprises 12 13 + 1 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 3 - 2 + 1 - 2 0
Small Enterprises - 5 - 4 + 1 0 + 4
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 22 20 - 2 19 - 1
Small Enterprises 39 40 + 1 43 + 3
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.1 + 1.6 1.4 + 1.7
Nonmanufacturing 5.4 + 2.0 2.1 + 3.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.8 + 0.7 1.1 + 1.0
Nonmanufacturing 3.2 + 0.8 0.8 + 0.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.9 + 1.0 1.0 + 1.1
Nonmanufacturing 6.3 + 2.1 - 1.8 + 1.3
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.5 + 1.6 0.9 + 1.8
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 48.7 + 3.8 - 3.0 + 2.1
Nonmanufacturing 24.6 + 7.3 - 6.1 + 4.0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 25.4 + 6.6 - 8.5 + 4.9
Nonmanufacturing 9.0 + 7.5 - 9.1 - 0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 15.3 + 4.8 0.2 + 2.3
Nonmanufacturing 21.3 + 8.8 - 6.7 + 2.7
[All Enterprises]
All industries 28.4 + 6.2 - 5.4 + 2.7
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2013 Changes FY2014 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.45 + 0.14 6.17 + 0.03
Nonmanufacturing 4.56 + 0.23 4.19 + 0.03
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.85 + 0.27 4.39 + 0.16
Nonmanufacturing 3.23 + 0.20 2.91 - 0.02
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.64 + 0.13 3.61 + 0.04
Nonmanufacturing 2.98 + 0.19 2.83 + 0.04
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.44 + 0.19 4.16 + 0.03
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 1.4 - 3.4 12.7 + 5.1
Nonmanufacturing 4.4 - 0.4 4.9 + 6.1
All industries 2.5 - 1.4 7.4 + 5.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 3.6 - 2.0 15.9 + 4.5
Nonmanufacturing 8.0 + 3.1 - 5.2 + 3.3
All industries 3.6 + 1.3 2.2 + 3.8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.9 + 0.6 - 5.4 +13.3
Nonmanufacturing 24.5 + 9.0 -26.0 +13.4
All industries 21.0 + 6.2 -19.7 +13.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.5 - 2.5 10.1 + 6.1
Nonmanufacturing 8.2 + 1.7 - 2.4 + 6.6
All industries 5.6 + 0.3 1.7 + 6.5
* Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 0.8 - 3.6 13.7 + 5.6
Nonmanufacturing 4.4 + 0.8 5.5 + 5.0
All industries 2.6 - 0.7 8.3 + 5.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 4.1 - 3.3 18.2 + 3.8
Nonmanufacturing 11.8 + 2.7 - 0.6 + 3.0
All industries 5.6 + 0.5 6.0 + 3.3
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.1 - 0.7 - 3.5 +11.9
Nonmanufacturing 19.6 + 6.1 -16.0 + 9.9
All industries 18.7 + 3.7 -11.8 +10.6
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.1 - 3.1 11.7 + 6.1
Nonmanufacturing 7.7 + 1.9 1.2 + 5.3
All industries 5.3 + 0.1 4.7 + 5.6
* Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
March 2014 June 2014 Change Sept. 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises 6 7 + 1 5 - 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 4 6 + 2 3 - 3
Small Enterprises 4 5 + 1 2 - 3
All Enterprises 5 5 0 3 - 2
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
March 2014 June 2014 Change Sept. 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises - 6 - 6 0 - 6 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -12 -10 + 2 -13 - 3
Small Enterprises -15 -12 + 3 -17 - 5
All Enterprises -12 -10 + 2 -14 - 4
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
March 2014 June 2014 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 18 21 + 3
Medium-sized Enterprises 14 16 + 2
Small Enterprises 1 3 + 2
All Enterprises 8 10 + 2
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
March 2014 June 2014 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 21 23 + 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 19 19 0
Small Enterprises 9 11 + 2
All Enterprises 15 15 0
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
March 2014 June 2014 Change Sept. 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises - 7 - 6 + 1 1 + 7
Medium-sized Enterprises - 7 - 7 0 1 + 8
Small Enterprises - 6 - 6 0 3 + 9
All Enterprises - 7 - 6 + 1 2 + 8
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
March 2014 June 2014 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 29 31 + 2
