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Tankan Outline (September 2014)

October 1, 2014
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises
	Manu- facturing	Nonmanu- facturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises	4,162	6,207	10,369	( 99.3%)
of which Large Enterprises	1,139	1,129	2,268	( 99.2%)
Medium-sized Enterprises	1,114	1,726	2,840	( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises	1,909	3,352	5,261	( 99.2%)

[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
	June 2014 Survey	Sept. 2014 Survey
FY2013	99.17	-
1H	97.87	-
2H	100.44	-
FY2014	100.18	100.73
1H	100.14	100.83
2H	100.23	100.63

[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
	June 2014	Sept. 2014	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2014 (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 15)
Manufacturing	12	13	+1	13	0
Nonmanufacturing		( 19)
Nonmanufacturing	19	13	-6	14	+1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 8)
Manufacturing	8	5	-3	5	0
Nonmanufacturing		( 8)
Nonmanufacturing	10	7	-3	7	0
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 3)
Manufacturing	1	-1	-2	0	+1
Nonmanufacturing		( 0)
Nonmanufacturing	2	0	-2	-1	-1
[All Enterprises]
All industries		( 7)
All industries	7	4	-3	4	0

(Notes)

FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
	June 2014	Sept. 2014	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2014 (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-13	-12	+1	-12	0
Small Enterprises	-21	-21	0	-21	0
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-5	-5	0	-3	+2
Small Enterprises	-8	-9	-1	-10	-1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	12	14	+2	-	-
Small Enterprises	12	15	+3	-	-
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	10	10	0	-	-
Small Enterprises	13	16	+3	-	-
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	-2	-4	-2	-4	0
Small Enterprises	-4	-4	0	-2	+2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	20	17	-3	18	+1
Small Enterprises	40	38	-2	43	+5

[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	7.1	-	1.2	-0.1
Nonmanufacturing	5.4	-	2.2	+0.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.8	-	1.4	+0.3
Nonmanufacturing	3.2	-	0.6	-0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.9	-	1.4	+0.4
Nonmanufacturing	6.3	-	-1.0	+0.8
[All Enterprises]
All industries	5.5	-	1.0	+0.2

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	48.7	-	-2.1	+0.9
Nonmanufacturing	24.6	-	-3.7	+2.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	25.4	-	-8.0	+0.6
Nonmanufacturing	9.0	-	-6.9	+2.5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	15.3	-	1.0	+0.8
Nonmanufacturing	21.3	-	-7.4	-0.8
[All Enterprises]
All industries	28.4	-	-4.0	+1.4

[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
	FY2013	Changes	FY2014 (Forecast)	Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	6.45	-	6.23	+0.06
Nonmanufacturing	4.56	-	4.30	+0.11
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.85	-	4.40	+0.01
Nonmanufacturing	3.23	-	2.99	+0.08
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.64	-	3.62	+0.01
Nonmanufacturing	2.98	-	2.78	-0.05
[All Enterprises]
All industries	4.44	-	4.22	+0.06

[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-1.4	-	13.4	+0.6
Nonmanufacturing	4.4	-	6.3	+1.3
All industries	2.5	-	8.6	+1.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-3.6	-	19.2	+2.8
Nonmanufacturing	8.0	-	-2.5	+2.9
All industries	3.6	-	5.1	+2.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	13.9	-	-1.6	+4.1
Nonmanufacturing	24.5	-	-18.0	+10.9
All industries	21.0	-	-12.9	+8.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	0.5	-	11.8	+1.5
Nonmanufacturing	8.2	-	0.5	+2.9
All industries	5.6	-	4.2	+2.4

Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.

[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-0.8	-	14.4	+0.5
Nonmanufacturing	4.4	-	5.9	+0.4
All industries	2.6	-	8.7	+0.4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-4.1	-	19.0	+0.7
Nonmanufacturing	11.8	-	0.1	+0.7
All industries	5.6	-	6.8	+0.7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	17.1	-	0.7	+4.4
Nonmanufacturing	19.6	-	-9.4	+7.8
All industries	18.7	-	-6.0	+6.5
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	1.1	-	12.9	+1.1
Nonmanufacturing	7.7	-	2.6	+1.4
All industries	5.3	-	6.1	+1.3

Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.

[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
	June 2014	Sept. 2014	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2014 (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	7	5	-2	5	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	6	4	-2	3	-1
Small Enterprises	5	4	-1	3	-1
All Enterprises	5	4	-1	3	-1

[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
	June 2014	Sept. 2014	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2014 (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	-6	-8	-2	-9	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	-10	-13	-3	-17	-4
Small Enterprises	-12	-16	-4	-20	-4
All Enterprises	-10	-14	-4	-17	-3

[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
	June 2014	Sept. 2014	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	21	20	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	16	15	-1
Small Enterprises	3	2	-1
All Enterprises	10	10	0

[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
	June 2014	Sept. 2014	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	23	24	+1
Medium-sized Enterprises	19	19	0
Small Enterprises	11	12	+1
All Enterprises	15	17	+2

[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
	June 2014	Sept. 2014	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2014 (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	-6	-9	-3	1	+10
Medium-sized Enterprises	-7	-9	-2	1	+10
Small Enterprises	-6	-8	-2	1	+9
All Enterprises	-6	-8	-2	1	+9

[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
	June 2014	Sept. 2014	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	31	33	+2