Tankan Outline (September 2014)
October 1, 2014
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,162 6,207 10,369 ( 99.3%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,139 1,129 2,268 ( 99.2%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,114 1,726 2,840 ( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises 1,909 3,352 5,261 ( 99.2%)
[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
June 2014 Survey Sept.2014 Survey
FY2013 99.17 -
1H 97.87 -
2H 100.44 -
FY2014 100.18 100.73
1H 100.14 100.83
2H 100.23 100.63
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
June 2014 Sept. 2014 Change Dec. 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
( 15)
Manufacturing 12 13 + 1 13 0
( 19)
Nonmanufacturing 19 13 - 6 14 + 1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 8)
Manufacturing 8 5 - 3 5 0
( 8)
Nonmanufacturing 10 7 - 3 7 0
[Small Enterprises]
( 3)
Manufacturing 1 - 1 - 2 0 + 1
( 0)
Nonmanufacturing 2 0 - 2 - 1 - 1
[All Enterprises]
( 7)
All industries 7 4 - 3 4 0
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
June 2014 Sept. 2014 Change Dec. 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -13 -12 + 1 -12 0
Small Enterprises -21 -21 0 -21 0
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 5 - 5 0 - 3 + 2
Small Enterprises - 8 - 9 - 1 -10 - 1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 14 + 2 - -
Small Enterprises 12 15 + 3 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 10 10 0 - -
Small Enterprises 13 16 + 3 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 2 - 4 - 2 - 4 0
Small Enterprises - 4 - 4 0 - 2 + 2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 20 17 - 3 18 + 1
Small Enterprises 40 38 - 2 43 + 5
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.1 - 1.2 - 0.1
Nonmanufacturing 5.4 - 2.2 + 0.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.8 - 1.4 + 0.3
Nonmanufacturing 3.2 - 0.6 - 0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.9 - 1.4 + 0.4
Nonmanufacturing 6.3 - - 1.0 + 0.8
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.5 - 1.0 + 0.2
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 48.7 - - 2.1 + 0.9
Nonmanufacturing 24.6 - - 3.7 + 2.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 25.4 - - 8.0 + 0.6
Nonmanufacturing 9.0 - - 6.9 + 2.5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 15.3 - 1.0 + 0.8
Nonmanufacturing 21.3 - - 7.4 - 0.8
[All Enterprises]
All industries 28.4 - - 4.0 + 1.4
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2013 Changes FY2014 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.45 - 6.23 + 0.06
Nonmanufacturing 4.56 - 4.30 + 0.11
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.85 - 4.40 + 0.01
Nonmanufacturing 3.23 - 2.99 + 0.08
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.64 - 3.62 + 0.01
Nonmanufacturing 2.98 - 2.78 - 0.05
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.44 - 4.22 + 0.06
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 1.4 - 13.4 + 0.6
Nonmanufacturing 4.4 - 6.3 + 1.3
All industries 2.5 - 8.6 + 1.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 3.6 - 19.2 + 2.8
Nonmanufacturing 8.0 - - 2.5 + 2.9
All industries 3.6 - 5.1 + 2.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.9 - - 1.6 + 4.1
Nonmanufacturing 24.5 - -18.0 +10.9
All industries 21.0 - -12.9 + 8.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.5 - 11.8 + 1.5
Nonmanufacturing 8.2 - 0.5 + 2.9
All industries 5.6 - 4.2 + 2.4
* Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 0.8 - 14.4 + 0.5
Nonmanufacturing 4.4 - 5.9 + 0.4
All industries 2.6 - 8.7 + 0.4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 4.1 - 19.0 + 0.7
Nonmanufacturing 11.8 - 0.1 + 0.7
All industries 5.6 - 6.8 + 0.7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.1 - 0.7 + 4.4
Nonmanufacturing 19.6 - - 9.4 + 7.8
All industries 18.7 - - 6.0 + 6.5
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.1 - 12.9 + 1.1
Nonmanufacturing 7.7 - 2.6 + 1.4
All industries 5.3 - 6.1 + 1.3
* Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
June 2014 Sept. 2014 Change Dec. 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises 7 5 - 2 5 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 6 4 - 2 3 - 1
Small Enterprises 5 4 - 1 3 - 1
All Enterprises 5 4 - 1 3 - 1
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
June 2014 Sept. 2014 Change Dec. 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises - 6 - 8 - 2 - 9 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises -10 -13 - 3 -17 - 4
Small Enterprises -12 -16 - 4 -20 - 4
All Enterprises -10 -14 - 4 -17 - 3
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
June 2014 Sept. 2014 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 21 20 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 16 15 - 1
Small Enterprises 3 2 - 1
All Enterprises 10 10 0
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2014 Sept. 2014 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 23 24 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 19 19 0
Small Enterprises 11 12 + 1
All Enterprises 15 17 + 2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
June 2014 Sept. 2014 Change Dec. 2014 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises - 6 - 9 - 3 1 +10
Medium-sized Enterprises - 7 - 9 - 2 1 +10
Small Enterprises - 6 - 8 - 2 1 + 9
All Enterprises - 6 - 8 - 2 1 + 9
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2014 Sept. 2014 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 31 33 + 2
