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Tankan Outline (December 2014)

December 15, 2014
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises
	Manu- facturing	Nonmanu- facturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises	4,140	6,172	10,312	( 99.5%)
of which Large Enterprises	1,136	1,124	2,260	( 99.0%)
Medium-sized Enterprises	1,111	1,717	2,828	( 99.5%)
Small Enterprises	1,893	3,331	5,224	( 99.7%)

[Responding Period: November 12 to December 12]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
	June 2014 Survey	Sept. 2014 Survey	Dec. 2014 Survey
FY2013	99.17	-	-
1H	97.87	-	-
2H	100.44	-	-
FY2014	100.18	100.73	103.36
1H	100.14	100.83	102.64
2H	100.23	100.63	104.04

[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
	Sept. 2014	Dec. 2014	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2015 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 13)
Manufacturing	13	12	-1	9	-3
Nonmanufacturing		( 14)
Nonmanufacturing	13	16	+3	15	-1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 5)
Manufacturing	5	7	+2	1	-6
Nonmanufacturing		( 7)
Nonmanufacturing	7	7	0	4	-3
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 0)
Manufacturing	-1	1	+2	-5	-6
Nonmanufacturing		( -1)
Nonmanufacturing	0	-1	-1	-4	-3
[All Enterprises]
All industries		( 4)
All industries	4	5	+1	1	-4

(Notes)

FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
	Sept. 2014	Dec. 2014	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2015 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-12	-12	0	-12	0
Small Enterprises	-21	-21	0	-22	-1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-5	-4	+1	-4	0
Small Enterprises	-9	-10	-1	-10	0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	14	14	0	-	-
Small Enterprises	15	13	-2	-	-
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	10	11	+1	-	-
Small Enterprises	16	16	0	-	-
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	-4	-3	+1	-3	0
Small Enterprises	-4	-5	-1	-4	+1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	17	19	+2	21	+2
Small Enterprises	38	39	+1	44	+5

[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	7.1	-	1.1	-0.1
Nonmanufacturing	5.4	-	2.5	+0.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.8	-	1.9	+0.5
Nonmanufacturing	3.2	-	0.7	+0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.9	-	2.1	+0.7
Nonmanufacturing	6.3	-	-0.2	+0.8
[All Enterprises]
All industries	5.5	-	1.4	+0.3

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	48.7	-	0.4	+2.6
Nonmanufacturing	24.6	-	2.7	+6.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	25.4	-	-3.3	+5.1
Nonmanufacturing	9.0	-	-5.8	+1.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	15.3	-	4.2	+3.2
Nonmanufacturing	21.3	-	-6.4	+1.1
[All Enterprises]
All industries	28.4	-	-0.3	+3.8

[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
	FY2013	Changes	FY2014 (Forecast)	Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	6.45	-	6.40	+0.17
Nonmanufacturing	4.56	-	4.57	+0.27
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.85	-	4.60	+0.20
Nonmanufacturing	3.23	-	3.02	+0.03
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.64	-	3.71	+0.09
Nonmanufacturing	2.98	-	2.79	+0.01
[All Enterprises]
All industries	4.44	-	4.36	+0.14

[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-1.4	-	11.4	-1.8
Nonmanufacturing	4.4	-	7.6	+1.3
All industries	2.5	-	8.9	+0.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-3.6	-	19.6	+0.3
Nonmanufacturing	8.0	-	-2.6	-0.1
All industries	3.6	-	5.2	+0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	13.9	-	7.9	+9.6
Nonmanufacturing	24.5	-	-13.2	+5.8
All industries	21.0	-	-6.7	+7.1
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	0.5	-	12.2	+0.3
Nonmanufacturing	8.2	-	2.2	+1.7
All industries	5.6	-	5.5	+1.2

Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.

[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2013	Revision rate	FY2014 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-0.8	-	12.2	-1.9
Nonmanufacturing	4.4	-	6.3	+0.4
All industries	2.6	-	8.3	-0.4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-4.1	-	18.7	-0.2
Nonmanufacturing	11.8	-	-0.4	-0.5
All industries	5.6	-	6.4	-0.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	17.1	-	10.2	+9.4
Nonmanufacturing	19.6	-	-6.5	+3.2
All industries	18.7	-	-0.9	+5.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	1.1	-	12.9	0.0
Nonmanufacturing	7.7	-	3.2	+0.7
All industries	5.3	-	6.5	+0.4

Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.

[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
	Sept. 2014	Dec. 2014	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2015 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	5	4	-1	4	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	4	3	-1	3	0
Small Enterprises	4	4	0	5	+1
All Enterprises	4	3	-1	3	0

[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
	Sept. 2014	Dec. 2014	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2015 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-8	-9	-1	-9	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	-13	-15	-2	-17	-2
Small Enterprises	-16	-18	-2	-21	-3
All Enterprises	-14	-15	-1	-17	-2

[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
	Sept. 2014	Dec. 2014	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	20	19	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	15	15	0
Small Enterprises	2	2	0
All Enterprises	10	9	-1

[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
	Sept. 2014	Dec. 2014	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	24	25	+1
Medium-sized Enterprises	19	21	+2
Small Enterprises	12	12	0
All Enterprises	17	17	0

[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
	Sept. 2014	Dec. 2014	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2015 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-9	-11	-2	0	+11
Medium-sized Enterprises	-9	-11	-2	-1	+10
Small Enterprises	-8	-10	-2	0	+10
All Enterprises	-8	-9	-1	0	+9

[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
	Sept. 2014	Dec. 2014	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	33	31	-2