Tankan Outline (December 2014)
December 15, 2014
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,140 6,172 10,312 ( 99.5%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,136 1,124 2,260 ( 99.0%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,111 1,717 2,828 ( 99.5%)
Small Enterprises 1,893 3,331 5,224 ( 99.7%)
[Responding Period: November 12 to December 12]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
June 2014 Survey Sept.2014 Survey Dec. 2014 Survey
FY2013 99.17 - -
1H 97.87 - -
2H 100.44 - -
FY2014 100.18 100.73 103.36
1H 100.14 100.83 102.64
2H 100.23 100.63 104.04
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Sept. 2014 Dec. 2014 Change March 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
Sept. and Dec. and
Dec. March
[Large Enterprises]
( 13)
Manufacturing 13 12 - 1 9 - 3
( 14)
Nonmanufacturing 13 16 + 3 15 - 1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 5)
Manufacturing 5 7 + 2 1 - 6
( 7)
Nonmanufacturing 7 7 0 4 - 3
[Small Enterprises]
( 0)
Manufacturing - 1 1 + 2 - 5 - 6
(- 1)
Nonmanufacturing 0 - 1 - 1 - 4 - 3
[All Enterprises]
( 4)
All industries 4 5 + 1 1 - 4
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
Sept. 2014 Dec. 2014 Change March 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
Sept. and Dec. and
Dec. March
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -12 -12 0 -12 0
Small Enterprises -21 -21 0 -22 - 1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 5 - 4 + 1 - 4 0
Small Enterprises - 9 -10 - 1 -10 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 14 0 - -
Small Enterprises 15 13 - 2 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 10 11 + 1 - -
Small Enterprises 16 16 0 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 4 - 3 + 1 - 3 0
Small Enterprises - 4 - 5 - 1 - 4 + 1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 17 19 + 2 21 + 2
Small Enterprises 38 39 + 1 44 + 5
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.1 - 1.1 - 0.1
Nonmanufacturing 5.4 - 2.5 + 0.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.8 - 1.9 + 0.5
Nonmanufacturing 3.2 - 0.7 + 0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.9 - 2.1 + 0.7
Nonmanufacturing 6.3 - - 0.2 + 0.8
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.5 - 1.4 + 0.3
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 48.7 - 0.4 + 2.6
Nonmanufacturing 24.6 - 2.7 + 6.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 25.4 - - 3.3 + 5.1
Nonmanufacturing 9.0 - - 5.8 + 1.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 15.3 - 4.2 + 3.2
Nonmanufacturing 21.3 - - 6.4 + 1.1
[All Enterprises]
All industries 28.4 - - 0.3 + 3.8
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2013 Changes FY2014 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.45 - 6.40 + 0.17
Nonmanufacturing 4.56 - 4.57 + 0.27
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.85 - 4.60 + 0.20
Nonmanufacturing 3.23 - 3.02 + 0.03
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.64 - 3.71 + 0.09
Nonmanufacturing 2.98 - 2.79 + 0.01
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.44 - 4.36 + 0.14
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 1.4 - 11.4 - 1.8
Nonmanufacturing 4.4 - 7.6 + 1.3
All industries 2.5 - 8.9 + 0.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 3.6 - 19.6 + 0.3
Nonmanufacturing 8.0 - - 2.6 - 0.1
All industries 3.6 - 5.2 + 0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.9 - 7.9 + 9.6
Nonmanufacturing 24.5 - -13.2 + 5.8
All industries 21.0 - - 6.7 + 7.1
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.5 - 12.2 + 0.3
Nonmanufacturing 8.2 - 2.2 + 1.7
All industries 5.6 - 5.5 + 1.2
* Excludes Software Investment. Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2013 Revision FY2014 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 0.8 - 12.2 - 1.9
Nonmanufacturing 4.4 - 6.3 + 0.4
All industries 2.6 - 8.3 - 0.4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 4.1 - 18.7 - 0.2
Nonmanufacturing 11.8 - - 0.4 - 0.5
All industries 5.6 - 6.4 - 0.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.1 - 10.2 + 9.4
Nonmanufacturing 19.6 - - 6.5 + 3.2
All industries 18.7 - - 0.9 + 5.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.1 - 12.9 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 7.7 - 3.2 + 0.7
All industries 5.3 - 6.5 + 0.4
* Compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
Sept. 2014 Dec. 2014 Change March 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
Sept. and Dec. and
Dec. March
Large Enterprises 5 4 - 1 4 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 4 3 - 1 3 0
Small Enterprises 4 4 0 5 + 1
All Enterprises 4 3 - 1 3 0
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
Sept. 2014 Dec. 2014 Change March 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
Sept. and Dec. and
Dec. March
Large Enterprises - 8 - 9 - 1 - 9 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -13 -15 - 2 -17 - 2
Small Enterprises -16 -18 - 2 -21 - 3
All Enterprises -14 -15 - 1 -17 - 2
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
Sept. 2014 Dec. 2014 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 20 19 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 15 15 0
Small Enterprises 2 2 0
All Enterprises 10 9 - 1
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
Sept. 2014 Dec. 2014 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 24 25 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 19 21 + 2
Small Enterprises 12 12 0
All Enterprises 17 17 0
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
Sept. 2014 Dec. 2014 Change March 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
Sept. and Dec. and
Dec. March
Large Enterprises - 9 -11 - 2 0 +11
Medium-sized Enterprises - 9 -11 - 2 - 1 +10
Small Enterprises - 8 -10 - 2 0 +10
All Enterprises - 8 - 9 - 1 0 + 9
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
Sept. 2014 Dec. 2014 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 33 31 - 2
