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Tankan Outline (March 2015)

April 1, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,517 6,609 11,126 ( 99.4%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,098 1,048 2,146 ( 99.5%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,193 1,900 3,093 ( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises 2,226 3,661 5,887 ( 99.5%)

[Responding Period: February 25 to March 31]

(Note) All figures are based on sample enterprises after the March 2015 revision.

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  Dec. 2014 Survey March 2015 Survey
FY2014 103.36 107.06
1H 102.70 102.87
2H 103.99 111.00
FY2015 - 111.81
1H - 111.54
2H - 112.07
[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2015
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 9)      
12 12 0 10 -2
Nonmanufacturing   ( 16)      
17 19 +2 17 -2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 1)      
7 4 -3 3 -1
Nonmanufacturing   ( 7)      
10 14 +4 10 -4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( -3)      
4 1 -3 0 -1
Nonmanufacturing   ( -2)      
1 3 +2 -1 -4
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 3)      
6 7 +1 5 -2

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
  Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2015
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -12 -12 0 -12 0
Small Enterprises -21 -22 -1 -22 0
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -4 -7 -3 -4 +3
Small Enterprises -9 -11 -2 -11 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 14 0 - -
Small Enterprises 14 14 0 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 11 11 0 - -
Small Enterprises 17 17 0 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -4 -6 -2 -5 +1
Small Enterprises -6 -6 0 -5 +1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 19 11 -8 15 +4
Small Enterprises 40 33 -7 38 +5
[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.2 0.0 0.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.7 +1.5 0.8 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.7 +0.1 1.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 0.0 -0.5 1.2 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.6 -0.1 1.0 -
Nonmanufacturing -1.0 0.0 -0.3 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 1.4 +0.4 0.6 -

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.1 +5.7 1.3 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.5 -0.1 0.0 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.4 +3.4 1.6 -
Nonmanufacturing -4.4 +1.1 1.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.8 +1.1 3.3 -
Nonmanufacturing -5.7 +0.8 -1.3 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 1.9 +2.2 0.6 -
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
  FY2014
(Forecast)
Changes FY2015
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.96 +0.37 7.01 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.50 -0.08 4.47 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.44 +0.14 4.44 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.90 +0.04 2.90 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.68 +0.04 3.77 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.98 +0.02 2.95 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.41 +0.08 4.41 -
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.7 -4.4 5.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.8 +1.5 -4.1 -
All industries 8.2 -0.5 -1.2 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.4 -3.5 3.6 -
Nonmanufacturing -1.5 +4.3 -5.6 -
All industries 2.2 +1.4 -2.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.2 +0.6 -14.3 -
Nonmanufacturing -11.1 +7.2 -24.5 -
All industries -6.2 +5.0 -21.2 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.1 -3.4 1.3 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.1 +2.9 -8.0 -
All industries 4.4 +0.7 -5.0 -
  • Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.4 -4.5 4.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.6 +0.8 -1.6 -
All industries 6.8 -1.1 0.6 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.2 -4.0 6.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.7 +1.4 -1.7 -
All industries 4.9 -0.6 1.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.3 -0.3 -11.0 -
Nonmanufacturing -4.0 +5.6 -21.0 -
All industries -0.2 +3.5 -17.6 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.8 -3.7 2.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.1 +1.7 -4.9 -
All industries 5.3 -0.2 -2.4 -
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2015
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 4 3 -1 3 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 3 3 0 3 0
Small Enterprises 2 1 -1 1 0
All Enterprises 3 2 -1 1 -1
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2015
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -9 -10 -1 -10 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -15 -17 -2 -18 -1
Small Enterprises -19 -20 -1 -22 -2
All Enterprises -15 -17 -2 -18 -1
[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 21 22 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 17 17 0
Small Enterprises 4 4 0
All Enterprises 10 12 +2
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 26 27 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 22 23 +1
Small Enterprises 14 15 +1
All Enterprises 18 20 +2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2015
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -12 -11 +1 1 +12
Medium-sized Enterprises -11 -11 0 1 +12
Small Enterprises -11 -11 0 1 +12
All Enterprises -10 -11 -1 1 +12
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 30 28 -2