Tankan Outline (March 2015)
April 1, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,517 6,609 11,126 ( 99.4%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,098 1,048 2,146 ( 99.5%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,193 1,900 3,093 ( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises 2,226 3,661 5,887 ( 99.5%)
[Responding Period: February 25 to March 31]
(Note) All figures are based on sample enterprises after the March 2015 revision.
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
Dec. 2014 Survey March 2015 Survey
FY2014 103.36 107.06
1H 102.70 102.87
2H 103.99 111.00
FY2015 - 111.81
1H - 111.54
2H - 112.07
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change June 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
[Large Enterprises]
( 9)
Manufacturing 12 12 0 10 - 2
( 16)
Nonmanufacturing 17 19 + 2 17 - 2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 1)
Manufacturing 7 4 - 3 3 - 1
( 7)
Nonmanufacturing 10 14 + 4 10 - 4
[Small Enterprises]
(- 3)
Manufacturing 4 1 - 3 0 - 1
(- 2)
Nonmanufacturing 1 3 + 2 - 1 - 4
[All Enterprises]
( 3)
All industries 6 7 + 1 5 - 2
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change June 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -12 -12 0 -12 0
Small Enterprises -21 -22 - 1 -22 0
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 4 - 7 - 3 - 4 + 3
Small Enterprises - 9 -11 - 2 -11 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 14 0 - -
Small Enterprises 14 14 0 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 11 11 0 - -
Small Enterprises 17 17 0 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 4 - 6 - 2 - 5 + 1
Small Enterprises - 6 - 6 0 - 5 + 1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 19 11 - 8 15 + 4
Small Enterprises 40 33 - 7 38 + 5
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.2 0.0 0.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.7 + 1.5 0.8 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.7 + 0.1 1.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 0.0 - 0.5 1.2 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.6 - 0.1 1.0 -
Nonmanufacturing - 1.0 0.0 - 0.3 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 1.4 + 0.4 0.6 -
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.1 + 5.7 1.3 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.5 - 0.1 0.0 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.4 + 3.4 1.6 -
Nonmanufacturing - 4.4 + 1.1 1.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.8 + 1.1 3.3 -
Nonmanufacturing - 5.7 + 0.8 - 1.3 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 1.9 + 2.2 0.6 -
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2014 Changes FY2015 Changes
(Forecast) (Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.96 + 0.37 7.01 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.50 - 0.08 4.47 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.44 + 0.14 4.44 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.90 + 0.04 2.90 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.68 + 0.04 3.77 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.98 + 0.02 2.95 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.41 + 0.08 4.41 -
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.7 - 4.4 5.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.8 + 1.5 - 4.1 -
All industries 8.2 - 0.5 - 1.2 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.4 - 3.5 3.6 -
Nonmanufacturing - 1.5 + 4.3 - 5.6 -
All industries 2.2 + 1.4 - 2.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.2 + 0.6 -14.3 -
Nonmanufacturing -11.1 + 7.2 -24.5 -
All industries - 6.2 + 5.0 -21.2 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.1 - 3.4 1.3 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.1 + 2.9 - 8.0 -
All industries 4.4 + 0.7 - 5.0 -
* Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.4 - 4.5 4.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.6 + 0.8 - 1.6 -
All industries 6.8 - 1.1 0.6 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.2 - 4.0 6.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.7 + 1.4 - 1.7 -
All industries 4.9 - 0.6 1.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.3 - 0.3 -11.0 -
Nonmanufacturing - 4.0 + 5.6 -21.0 -
All industries - 0.2 + 3.5 -17.6 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.8 - 3.7 2.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.1 + 1.7 - 4.9 -
All industries 5.3 - 0.2 - 2.4 -
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change June 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises 4 3 - 1 3 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 3 3 0 3 0
Small Enterprises 2 1 - 1 1 0
All Enterprises 3 2 - 1 1 - 1
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change June 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises - 9 -10 - 1 -10 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -15 -17 - 2 -18 - 1
Small Enterprises -19 -20 - 1 -22 - 2
All Enterprises -15 -17 - 2 -18 - 1
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 21 22 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 17 17 0
Small Enterprises 4 4 0
All Enterprises 10 12 + 2
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 26 27 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 22 23 + 1
Small Enterprises 14 15 + 1
All Enterprises 18 20 + 2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change June 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises -12 -11 + 1 1 +12
Medium-sized Enterprises -11 -11 0 1 +12
Small Enterprises -11 -11 0 1 +12
All Enterprises -10 -11 - 1 1 +12
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2014 March 2015 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 30 28 - 2
