Tankan Outline (June 2015)
July 1, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,491 6,575 11,066 ( 99.5%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,096 1,047 2,143 ( 99.7%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,187 1,891 3,078 ( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises 2,208 3,637 5,845 ( 99.5%)
[Responding Period: May 27 to June 30]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
March 2015 Survey June 2015 Survey
FY2014 107.06 108.96
1H 102.87 103.17
2H 111.00 114.29
FY2015 111.81 115.62
1H 111.54 115.59
2H 112.07 115.65
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
March 2015 June 2015 Change Sept. 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
( 10)
Manufacturing 12 15 + 3 16 + 1
( 17)
Nonmanufacturing 19 23 + 4 21 - 2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 3)
Manufacturing 4 2 - 2 4 + 2
( 10)
Nonmanufacturing 14 16 + 2 14 - 2
[Small Enterprises]
( 0)
Manufacturing 1 0 - 1 0 0
(- 1)
Nonmanufacturing 3 4 + 1 1 - 3
[All Enterprises]
( 5)
All industries 7 7 0 7 0
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
March 2015 June 2015 Change Sept. 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -12 -12 0 - 9 + 3
Small Enterprises -22 -23 - 1 -22 + 1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 7 - 7 0 - 5 + 2
Small Enterprises -11 -12 - 1 -11 + 1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 13 - 1 - -
Small Enterprises 14 15 + 1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 11 12 + 1 - -
Small Enterprises 17 18 + 1 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 6 - 4 + 2 - 3 + 1
Small Enterprises - 6 - 4 + 2 - 4 0
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 11 14 + 3 16 + 2
Small Enterprises 33 35 + 2 39 + 4
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.3 + 0.1 0.9 + 0.4
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 - 3.1 0.3 - 3.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.9 + 0.2 1.4 + 0.1
Nonmanufacturing 0.2 + 0.2 1.2 + 0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.2 - 0.4 0.5 - 0.8
Nonmanufacturing 0.0 + 0.9 - 0.9 + 0.4
[All Enterprises]
All industries 0.6 - 0.8 0.4 - 1.0
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.5 + 6.1 0.8 + 5.5
Nonmanufacturing 3.7 + 0.3 1.5 + 1.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.8 + 7.1 0.0 + 5.4
Nonmanufacturing - 0.6 + 4.0 - 2.3 + 0.5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.6 + 3.7 - 1.5 - 1.2
Nonmanufacturing 0.8 + 6.9 - 5.6 + 2.2
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.9 + 4.0 - 0.4 + 3.0
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2014 Changes FY2015 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.38 + 0.42 7.37 + 0.36
Nonmanufacturing 4.66 + 0.16 4.71 + 0.24
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.74 + 0.30 4.68 + 0.24
Nonmanufacturing 3.01 + 0.11 2.91 + 0.01
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.83 + 0.15 3.75 - 0.02
Nonmanufacturing 3.16 + 0.18 3.00 + 0.05
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.63 + 0.22 4.59 + 0.18
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.6 - 1.1 18.7 +11.8
Nonmanufacturing 6.0 - 2.6 4.7 + 6.3
All industries 5.9 - 2.1 9.3 + 8.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.7 - 0.6 11.8 + 7.3
Nonmanufacturing 1.9 + 3.4 - 3.2 + 6.1
All industries 4.2 + 2.0 2.1 + 6.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.6 + 3.3 - 9.9 + 8.5
Nonmanufacturing - 5.0 + 6.8 -18.4 +15.4
All industries - 0.8 + 5.7 -15.7 +13.0
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.8 - 0.2 12.3 +10.6
Nonmanufacturing 3.1 0.0 - 1.0 + 7.6
All industries 4.3 - 0.1 3.4 + 8.7
* Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.2 - 1.1 17.3 +10.8
Nonmanufacturing 3.3 - 3.1 6.6 + 5.0
All industries 4.3 - 2.4 10.3 + 7.0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.4 - 0.7 14.1 + 6.7
Nonmanufacturing 6.2 + 3.5 0.5 + 5.8
All industries 7.0 + 2.0 5.2 + 6.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.1 + 0.7 - 5.0 + 7.5
Nonmanufacturing 1.3 + 5.5 -15.6 +12.7
All industries 3.7 + 3.9 -12.1 +10.8
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.0 - 0.7 13.1 + 9.7
Nonmanufacturing 3.3 - 0.7 1.7 + 6.2
All industries 4.6 - 0.7 5.6 + 7.4
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
March 2015 June 2015 Change Sept. 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises 3 2 - 1 1 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 3 5 + 2 2 - 3
Small Enterprises 1 2 + 1 0 - 2
All Enterprises 2 3 + 1 0 - 3
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
March 2015 June 2015 Change Sept. 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises -10 - 9 + 1 -10 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises -17 -16 + 1 -18 - 2
Small Enterprises -20 -16 + 4 -21 - 5
All Enterprises -17 -15 + 2 -18 - 3
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
March 2015 June 2015 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 22 22 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 17 17 0
Small Enterprises 4 5 + 1
All Enterprises 12 12 0
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
March 2015 June 2015 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 27 27 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 23 24 + 1
Small Enterprises 15 16 + 1
All Enterprises 20 20 0
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
March 2015 June 2015 Change Sept. 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises -11 - 5 + 6 3 + 8
Medium-sized Enterprises -11 - 7 + 4 3 +10
Small Enterprises -11 - 8 + 3 2 +10
All Enterprises -11 - 7 + 4 2 + 9
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
March 2015 June 2015 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 28 31 + 3
