Tankan Outline (September 2015)
October 1, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,479 6,538 11,017 ( 99.5%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,095 1,045 2,140 ( 99.4%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,185 1,881 3,066 ( 99.5%)
Small Enterprises 2,199 3,612 5,811 ( 99.5%)
[Responding Period: August 26 to September 30]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
June 2015 Survey Sept.2015 Survey
FY2014 108.96 -
1H 103.17 -
2H 114.29 -
FY2015 115.62 117.39
1H 115.59 117.50
2H 115.65 117.28
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change Dec. 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
( 16)
Manufacturing 15 12 - 3 10 - 2
( 21)
Nonmanufacturing 23 25 + 2 19 - 6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 4)
Manufacturing 2 5 + 3 4 - 1
( 14)
Nonmanufacturing 16 17 + 1 13 - 4
[Small Enterprises]
( 0)
Manufacturing 0 0 0 - 2 - 2
( 1)
Nonmanufacturing 4 3 - 1 1 - 2
[All Enterprises]
( 7)
All industries 7 8 + 1 5 - 3
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change Dec. 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -12 -10 + 2 -11 - 1
Small Enterprises -23 -23 0 -24 - 1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 7 - 8 - 1 - 6 + 2
Small Enterprises -12 -14 - 2 -16 - 2
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 13 14 + 1 - -
Small Enterprises 15 14 - 1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 12 0 - -
Small Enterprises 18 20 + 2 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 4 - 7 - 3 - 8 - 1
Small Enterprises - 4 - 6 - 2 - 9 - 3
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 14 4 -10 6 + 2
Small Enterprises 35 22 -13 24 + 2
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.3 - 0.9 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 - 0.1 - 0.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.9 - 1.6 + 0.2
Nonmanufacturing 0.2 - 1.1 - 0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.2 - 0.3 - 0.2
Nonmanufacturing 0.0 - - 0.5 + 0.4
[All Enterprises]
All industries 0.6 - 0.4 0.0
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.5 - 3.8 + 3.0
Nonmanufacturing 3.7 - 5.6 + 4.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.8 - 6.3 + 6.3
Nonmanufacturing - 0.6 - - 1.0 + 1.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.6 - 2.9 + 4.5
Nonmanufacturing 0.8 - - 1.1 + 4.8
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.9 - 3.3 + 3.7
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2014 Changes FY2015 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.38 - 7.59 + 0.22
Nonmanufacturing 4.66 - 4.92 + 0.21
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.74 - 4.96 + 0.28
Nonmanufacturing 3.01 - 2.95 + 0.04
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.83 - 3.93 + 0.18
Nonmanufacturing 3.16 - 3.14 + 0.14
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.63 - 4.76 + 0.17
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.6 - 18.7 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 6.0 - 7.2 + 2.4
All industries 5.9 - 10.9 + 1.5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.7 - 10.1 - 1.5
Nonmanufacturing 1.9 - - 2.0 + 1.2
All industries 4.2 - 2.2 + 0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.6 - - 2.0 + 8.8
Nonmanufacturing - 5.0 - - 7.9 +12.8
All industries - 0.8 - - 6.1 +11.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.8 - 13.5 + 1.0
Nonmanufacturing 3.1 - 2.9 + 3.9
All industries 4.3 - 6.4 + 2.9
* Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2014 Revision FY2015 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.2 - 17.1 - 0.1
Nonmanufacturing 3.3 - 9.1 + 2.4
All industries 4.3 - 11.9 + 1.4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.4 - 12.0 - 1.8
Nonmanufacturing 6.2 - 1.7 + 1.2
All industries 7.0 - 5.3 + 0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.1 - 2.6 + 8.1
Nonmanufacturing 1.3 - - 7.7 + 9.3
All industries 3.7 - - 4.3 + 8.9
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.0 - 13.9 + 0.7
Nonmanufacturing 3.3 - 5.0 + 3.2
All industries 4.6 - 8.1 + 2.3
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change Dec. 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises 2 1 - 1 2 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 5 2 - 3 2 0
Small Enterprises 2 3 + 1 1 - 2
All Enterprises 3 3 0 2 - 1
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change Dec. 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises - 9 - 9 0 -10 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises -16 -18 - 2 -20 - 2
Small Enterprises -16 -19 - 3 -22 - 3
All Enterprises -15 -16 - 1 -19 - 3
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 22 22 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 17 19 + 2
Small Enterprises 5 6 + 1
All Enterprises 12 12 0
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 27 27 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 24 23 - 1
Small Enterprises 16 16 0
All Enterprises 20 20 0
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change Dec. 2015 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises - 5 - 5 0 2 + 7
Medium-sized Enterprises - 7 - 7 0 1 + 8
Small Enterprises - 8 - 8 0 1 + 9
All Enterprises - 7 - 8 - 1 1 + 9
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 31 32 + 1
