Tankan Outline (September 2015)
October 1, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,479 | 6,538 | 11,017 | (99.5%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,095 | 1,045 | 2,140 | (99.4%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,185 | 1,881 | 3,066 | (99.5%) |
Small Enterprises | 2,199 | 3,612 | 5,811 | (99.5%) |
[Responding Period: August 26 to September 30]
June 2015 Survey | Sept.2015 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2014 | 108.96 | - |
1H | 103.17 | - |
2H | 114.29 | - |
FY2015 | 115.62 | 117.39 |
1H | 115.59 | 117.50 |
2H | 115.65 | 117.28 |
June 2015 | Sept. 2015 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2015 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (16) | ||||
15 | 12 | -3 | 10 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (21) | ||||
23 | 25 | +2 | 19 | -6 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (4) | ||||
2 | 5 | +3 | 4 | -1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (14) | ||||
16 | 17 | +1 | 13 | -4 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (0) | ||||
0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (1) | ||||
4 | 3 | -1 | 1 | -2 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | (7) | ||||
7 | 8 | +1 | 5 | -3 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
June 2015 | Sept. 2015 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2015 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -12 | -10 | +2 | -11 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -23 | -23 | 0 | -24 | -1 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -7 | -8 | -1 | -6 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | -12 | -14 | -2 | -16 | -2 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 13 | 14 | +1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 15 | 14 | -1 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 12 | 12 | 0 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 18 | 20 | +2 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -4 | -7 | -3 | -8 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -4 | -6 | -2 | -9 | -3 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 14 | 4 | -10 | 6 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | 35 | 22 | -13 | 24 | +2 |
FY2014 | Revision rate |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.3 | - | 0.9 | 0.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.5 | - | 0.1 | -0.2 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.9 | - | 1.6 | +0.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.2 | - | 1.1 | -0.1 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.2 | - | 0.3 | -0.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.0 | - | -0.5 | +0.4 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 0.6 | - | 0.4 | 0.0 |
(Note) Revision
rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2014 | Revision rate |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 11.5 | - | 3.8 | +3.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.7 | - | 5.6 | +4.1 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 11.8 | - | 6.3 | +6.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.6 | - | -1.0 | +1.4 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.6 | - | 2.9 | +4.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.8 | - | -1.1 | +4.8 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.9 | - | 3.3 | +3.7 |
FY2014 | Changes | FY2015 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.38 | - | 7.59 | +0.22 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.66 | - | 4.92 | +0.21 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.74 | - | 4.96 | +0.28 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.01 | - | 2.95 | +0.04 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.83 | - | 3.93 | +0.18 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.16 | - | 3.14 | +0.14 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.63 | - | 4.76 | +0.17 |
FY2014 | Revision rate |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.6 | - | 18.7 | 0.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.0 | - | 7.2 | +2.4 |
All industries | 5.9 | - | 10.9 | +1.5 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.7 | - | 10.1 | -1.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.9 | - | -2.0 | +1.2 |
All industries | 4.2 | - | 2.2 | +0.2 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.6 | - | -2.0 | +8.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | -5.0 | - | -7.9 | +12.8 |
All industries | -0.8 | - | -6.1 | +11.4 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.8 | - | 13.5 | +1.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.1 | - | 2.9 | +3.9 |
All industries | 4.3 | - | 6.4 | +2.9 |
- Excludes Software Investment.
FY2014 | Revision rate |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.2 | - | 17.1 | -0.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.3 | - | 9.1 | +2.4 |
All industries | 4.3 | - | 11.9 | +1.4 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.4 | - | 12.0 | -1.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.2 | - | 1.7 | +1.2 |
All industries | 7.0 | - | 5.3 | +0.1 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.1 | - | 2.6 | +8.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.3 | - | -7.7 | +9.3 |
All industries | 3.7 | - | -4.3 | +8.9 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.0 | - | 13.9 | +0.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.3 | - | 5.0 | +3.2 |
All industries | 4.6 | - | 8.1 | +2.3 |
June 2015 | Sept. 2015 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2015 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 5 | 2 | -3 | 2 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 2 | 3 | +1 | 1 | -2 |
All Enterprises | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 |
June 2015 | Sept. 2015 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2015 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -9 | -9 | 0 | -10 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -16 | -18 | -2 | -20 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -16 | -19 | -3 | -22 | -3 |
All Enterprises | -15 | -16 | -1 | -19 | -3 |
June 2015 | Sept. 2015 | Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 22 | 22 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 17 | 19 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | 5 | 6 | +1 |
All Enterprises | 12 | 12 | 0 |
June 2015 | Sept. 2015 | Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 27 | 27 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 24 | 23 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 16 | 16 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 20 | 20 | 0 |
June 2015 | Sept. 2015 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2015 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -5 | -5 | 0 | 2 | +7 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -7 | -7 | 0 | 1 | +8 |
Small Enterprises | -8 | -8 | 0 | 1 | +9 |
All Enterprises | -7 | -8 | -1 | 1 | +9 |
June 2015 | Sept. 2015 | Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 31 | 32 | +1 |