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Tankan Outline (December 2015)

December 14, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises 
 
                                            Manu-      Nonmanu-      Total      (Response 
                                          facturing    facturing                   rate) 
All Enterprises                                 4,462       6,509       10,971    ( 99.6%) 
of which Large Enterprises                      1,091       1,043        2,134    ( 99.6%) 
         Medium-sized Enterprises               1,181       1,877        3,058    ( 99.4%) 
         Small Enterprises                      2,190       3,589        5,779    ( 99.6%) 
 
[Responding Period: November 11 to December 11] 
 
 
 
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises 
(yen per US dollar) 
                           June 2015 Survey          Sept. 2015 Survey        Dec. 2015 Survey 
                    FY2014        108.96                       -                        - 
                        1H        103.17                       -                        - 
                        2H        114.29                       -                        - 
 
                    FY2015        115.62                   117.39                   119.40 
                        1H        115.59                   117.50                   120.84 
                        2H        115.65                   117.28                   118.00 
 
 
 
 
 
[Business Conditions] 
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points) 
 
                            Sept. 2015    Dec. 2015     Change    March 2016    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      Sept. and                 Dec. and 
                                                         Dec.                    March 
[Large Enterprises] 
                                            ( 10) 
   Manufacturing                 12           12           0            7         - 5 
                                            ( 19) 
   Nonmanufacturing              25           25           0           18         - 7 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
                                            (  4) 
   Manufacturing                  5            5           0            0         - 5 
                                            ( 13) 
   Nonmanufacturing              17           19         + 2           12         - 7 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
                                            (- 2) 
   Manufacturing                  0            0           0          - 4         - 4 
                                            (  1) 
   Nonmanufacturing               3            5         + 2            0         - 5 
 
[All Enterprises] 
                                            (  5) 
   All industries                 8            9         + 1            3         - 6 
 
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year) 
           1H...first half (April - September) 
           2H...second half (October - March of the following year) 
        2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey. 
 
 
 
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] 
(%points) 
                            Sept. 2015    Dec. 2015     Change    March 2016    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      Sept. and                 Dec. and 
                                                         Dec.                    March 
 
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of 
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") 
   Large Enterprises            -10          -10           0          -11         - 1 
   Small Enterprises            -23          -24         - 1          -26         - 2 
 
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products  (Diffusion index of 
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") 
   Large Enterprises            - 8          - 9         - 1          - 8         + 1 
   Small Enterprises            -14          -17         - 3          -16         + 1 
 
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or 
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") 
   Large Enterprises             14           14           0           -           - 
   Small Enterprises             14           14           0           -           - 
 
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat 
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") 
   Large Enterprises             12           12           0           -           - 
   Small Enterprises             20           20           0           -           - 
 
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") 
   Large Enterprises            - 7          -11         - 4          -11           0 
   Small Enterprises            - 6          - 9         - 3          -11         - 2 
 
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") 
   Large Enterprises              4          - 2         - 6            3         + 5 
   Small Enterprises             22           14         - 8           19         + 5 
 
 
 
[Sales] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2014      Revision      FY2015     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.3          -         - 0.3        - 1.1 
   Nonmanufacturing              0.5          -         - 1.6        - 1.7 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.9          -           1.6          0.0 
   Nonmanufacturing              0.2          -           0.8        - 0.3 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 1.2          -           0.1        - 0.3 
   Nonmanufacturing              0.0          -         - 0.5          0.0 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries                0.6          -         - 0.5        - 0.8 
 
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between 
       the current and the previous survey. 
 
 
[Current Profits] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2014      Revision      FY2015     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                11.5          -           3.3        - 0.5 
   Nonmanufacturing              3.7          -           9.9        + 4.0 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                11.8          -           8.6        + 2.2 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 0.6          -           3.1        + 4.1 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 8.6          -           3.1        + 0.2 
   Nonmanufacturing              0.8          -           1.5        + 2.6 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries                5.9          -           5.4        + 2.0 
 
 
 
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] 
(%, %points) 
                              FY2014       Changes      FY2015      Changes 
                                                      (Forecast) 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                7.38          -           7.64      + 0.05 
   Nonmanufacturing             4.66          -           5.20      + 0.28 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                4.74          -           5.07      + 0.11 
   Nonmanufacturing             3.01          -           3.08      + 0.13 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                3.83          -           3.95      + 0.02 
   Nonmanufacturing             3.16          -           3.22      + 0.08 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   All industries               4.63          -           4.90      + 0.14 
 
 
 
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2014      Revision      FY2015     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 5.6          -          15.5        - 2.7 
   Nonmanufacturing              6.0          -           8.5        + 1.3 
   All industries                5.9          -          10.8        - 0.1 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 8.7          -          11.3        + 1.1 
   Nonmanufacturing              1.9          -           1.3        + 3.4 
   All industries                4.2          -           4.8        + 2.5 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 9.6          -           1.5        + 3.5 
   Nonmanufacturing            - 5.0          -         - 1.0        + 7.6 
   All industries              - 0.8          -         - 0.2        + 6.3 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 6.8          -          12.2        - 1.1 
   Nonmanufacturing              3.1          -           5.6        + 2.7 
   All industries                4.3          -           7.8        + 1.3 
 
   * Excludes Software Investment. 
 
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] 
(Year-to-year % change) 
                              FY2014      Revision      FY2015     Revision 
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate 
[Large Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 6.2          -          14.2        - 2.5 
   Nonmanufacturing              3.3          -           8.8        - 0.2 
   All industries                4.3          -          10.7        - 1.1 
 
[Medium-sized Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 8.4          -          12.3        + 0.3 
   Nonmanufacturing              6.2          -           3.6        + 1.9 
   All industries                7.0          -           6.7        + 1.3 
 
[Small Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 9.1          -           4.6        + 1.9 
   Nonmanufacturing              1.3          -         - 1.7        + 6.5 
   All industries                3.7          -           0.3        + 4.9 
 
[All Enterprises] 
   Manufacturing                 7.0          -          12.3        - 1.4 
   Nonmanufacturing              3.3          -           6.1        + 1.1 
   All industries                4.6          -           8.3        + 0.2 
 
 
 
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] 
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points) 
                            Sept. 2015    Dec. 2015     Change    March 2016    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      Sept. and                 Dec. and 
                                                         Dec.                    March 
 
   Large Enterprises              1            3         + 2            3           0 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises       2            3         + 1            2         - 1 
 
   Small Enterprises              3            4         + 1            2         - 2 
 
   All Enterprises                3            3           0            2         - 1 
 
 
 
 
 
 
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points) 
                            Sept. 2015    Dec. 2015     Change    March 2016    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      Sept. and                 Dec. and 
                                                         Dec.                    March 
 
   Large Enterprises            - 9          -12         - 3          -12           0 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises     -18          -21         - 3          -21           0 
 
   Small Enterprises            -19          -21         - 2          -23         - 2 
 
   All Enterprises              -16          -19         - 3          -20         - 1 
 
 
 
 
[Financial Position (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points) 
                            Sept. 2015    Dec. 2015     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      Sept. and 
                                                         Dec. 
 
   Large Enterprises             22           22           0 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      19           20         + 1 
 
   Small Enterprises              6            6           0 
 
   All Enterprises               12           13         + 1 
 
 
 
 
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points) 
                            Sept. 2015    Dec. 2015     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      Sept. and 
                                                         Dec. 
 
   Large Enterprises             27           26         - 1 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises      23           25         + 2 
 
   Small Enterprises             16           17         + 1 
 
   All Enterprises               20           20           0 
 
 
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] 
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points) 
                            Sept. 2015    Dec. 2015     Change    March 2016    Change 
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between 
                                                      Sept. and                 Dec. and 
                                                         Dec.                    March 
 
   Large Enterprises            - 5          - 5           0            2         + 7 
 
   Medium-sized Enterprises     - 7          - 7           0            1         + 8 
 
   Small Enterprises            - 8          - 8           0            0         + 8 
 
   All Enterprises              - 8          - 7         + 1            1         + 8 
 
 
 
 
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] 
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points) 
                            Sept. 2015    Dec. 2015     Change 
                                                       between 
                                                      Sept. and 
                                                         Dec. 
 
   Large Enterprises             32           33         + 1 
 
 
 
 
 
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