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Tankan Outline (December 2015)

December 14, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,462 6,509 10,971 ( 99.6%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,091 1,043 2,134 ( 99.6%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,181 1,877 3,058 ( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises 2,190 3,589 5,779 ( 99.6%)

[Responding Period: November 11 to December 11]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  June 2015 Survey Sept. 2015 Survey Dec. 2015 Survey
FY2014 108.96 - -
1H 103.17 - -
2H 114.29 - -
FY2015 115.62 117.39 119.40
1H 115.59 117.50 120.84
2H 115.65 117.28 118.00
[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  Sept. 2015 Dec. 2015 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 10)      
12 12 0 7 -5
Nonmanufacturing   ( 19)      
25 25 0 18 -7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 4)      
5 5 0 0 -5
Nonmanufacturing   ( 13)      
17 19 +2 12 -7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( -2)      
0 0 0 -4 -4
Nonmanufacturing   ( 1)      
3 5 +2 0 -5
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 5)      
8 9 +1 3 -6

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
  Sept. 2015 Dec. 2015 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -10 -10 0 -11 -1
Small Enterprises -23 -24 -1 -26 -2
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -8 -9 -1 -8 +1
Small Enterprises -14 -17 -3 -16 +1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 14 0 - -
Small Enterprises 14 14 0 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 12 0 - -
Small Enterprises 20 20 0 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -7 -11 -4 -11 0
Small Enterprises -6 -9 -3 -11 -2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 4 -2 -6 3 +5
Small Enterprises 22 14 -8 19 +5
[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014 Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.3 - -0.3 -1.1
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 - -1.6 -1.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.9 - 1.6 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 0.2 - 0.8 -0.3
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.2 - 0.1 -0.3
Nonmanufacturing 0.0 - -0.5 0.0
[All Enterprises]
All industries 0.6 - -0.5 -0.8

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014 Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.5 - 3.3 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing 3.7 - 9.9 +4.0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.8 - 8.6 +2.2
Nonmanufacturing -0.6 - 3.1 +4.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.6 - 3.1 +0.2
Nonmanufacturing 0.8 - 1.5 +2.6
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.9 - 5.4 +2.0
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
  FY2014 Changes FY2015
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.38 - 7.64 +0.05
Nonmanufacturing 4.66 - 5.20 +0.28
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.74 - 5.07 +0.11
Nonmanufacturing 3.01 - 3.08 +0.13
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.83 - 3.95 +0.02
Nonmanufacturing 3.16 - 3.22 +0.08
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.63 - 4.90 +0.14
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014 Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.6 - 15.5 -2.7
Nonmanufacturing 6.0 - 8.5 +1.3
All industries 5.9 - 10.8 -0.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.7 - 11.3 +1.1
Nonmanufacturing 1.9 - 1.3 +3.4
All industries 4.2 - 4.8 +2.5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.6 - 1.5 +3.5
Nonmanufacturing -5.0 - -1.0 +7.6
All industries -0.8 - -0.2 +6.3
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.8 - 12.2 -1.1
Nonmanufacturing 3.1 - 5.6 +2.7
All industries 4.3 - 7.8 +1.3
  • Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014 Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.2 - 14.2 -2.5
Nonmanufacturing 3.3 - 8.8 -0.2
All industries 4.3 - 10.7 -1.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.4 - 12.3 +0.3
Nonmanufacturing 6.2 - 3.6 +1.9
All industries 7.0 - 6.7 +1.3
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.1 - 4.6 +1.9
Nonmanufacturing 1.3 - -1.7 +6.5
All industries 3.7 - 0.3 +4.9
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.0 - 12.3 -1.4
Nonmanufacturing 3.3 - 6.1 +1.1
All industries 4.6 - 8.3 +0.2
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  Sept. 2015 Dec. 2015 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 1 3 +2 3 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 2 3 +1 2 -1
Small Enterprises 3 4 +1 2 -2
All Enterprises 3 3 0 2 -1
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  Sept. 2015 Dec. 2015 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -9 -12 -3 -12 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -18 -21 -3 -21 0
Small Enterprises -19 -21 -2 -23 -2
All Enterprises -16 -19 -3 -20 -1
[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  Sept. 2015 Dec. 2015 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 22 22 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 19 20 +1
Small Enterprises 6 6 0
All Enterprises 12 13 +1
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  Sept. 2015 Dec. 2015 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 27 26 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 23 25 +2
Small Enterprises 16 17 +1
All Enterprises 20 20 0
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  Sept. 2015 Dec. 2015 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -5 -5 0 2 +7
Medium-sized Enterprises -7 -7 0 1 +8
Small Enterprises -8 -8 0 0 +8
All Enterprises -8 -7 +1 1 +8
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  Sept. 2015 Dec. 2015 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 32 33 +1