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Tankan Outline (March 2016)

April 1, 2016
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,441 6,489 10,930 (99.4%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,087 1,043 2,130 (99.4%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,178 1,871 3,049 (99.5%)
Small Enterprises 2,176 3,575 5,751 (99.3%)

[Responding Period: February 25 to March 31]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises(yen per US dollar)
  Dec. 2015 Survey March 2016 Survey
FY2015 119.40 119.80
1H 120.84 120.93
2H 118.00 118.69
FY2016 - 117.46
1H - 117.45
2H - 117.46
[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (7)      
12 6 -6 3 -3
Nonmanufacturing   (18)      
25 22 -3 17 -5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (0)      
5 5 0 -2 -7
Nonmanufacturing   (12)      
19 17 -2 9 -8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (-4)      
0 -4 -4 -6 -2
Nonmanufacturing   (0)      
5 4 -1 -3 -7
[All Enterprises]
All industries   (3)      
9 7 -2 1 -6

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
  Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -10 -13 -3 -13 0
Small Enterprises -24 -26 -2 -27 -1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -9 -11 -2 -9 +2
Small Enterprises -17 -18 -1 -17 +1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 15 +1 - -
Small Enterprises 14 14 0 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 14 +2 - -
Small Enterprises 20 20 0 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -11 -15 -4 -13 +2
Small Enterprises -9 -11 -2 -13 -2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -2 -8 -6 -1 +7
Small Enterprises 14 7 -7 12 +5
[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -1.5 -1.3 -0.6 -
Nonmanufacturing -1.6 0.0 -0.3 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 -0.9 0.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 0.3 -0.4 1.7 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.1 +0.1 0.5 -
Nonmanufacturing -1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries -1.0 -0.5 0.0 -

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -3.5 -6.6 -1.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 11.9 +1.9 -2.1 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.7 -0.9 -0.8 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.0 +1.8 2.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.2 -2.7 2.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.0 +4.4 -7.9 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.3 -1.0 -2.2 -
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
  FY2015
(Forecast)
Changes FY2016
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.23 -0.41 7.13 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.30 +0.10 5.21 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.07 0.00 4.99 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.15 +0.07 3.17 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.84 -0.11 3.91 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.38 +0.16 3.13 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.87 -0.03 4.77 -
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.3 -1.9 3.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.1 -0.4 -2.9 -
All industries 9.8 -0.9 -0.9 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.4 -3.5 5.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.2 +2.9 -10.0 -
All industries 5.3 +0.5 -4.7 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.8 +3.3 -22.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.5 +4.5 -18.0 -
All industries 3.9 +4.1 -19.3 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 10.8 -1.3 -0.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.7 +1.0 -6.8 -
All industries 8.0 +0.2 -4.8 -
  • Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.0 -1.9 3.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 7.0 -1.7 1.1 -
All industries 8.7 -1.8 2.0 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.0 -3.9 7.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.2 +1.5 -5.9 -
All industries 6.2 -0.5 -1.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.8 +3.1 -20.9 -
Nonmanufacturing -1.2 +0.5 -8.0 -
All industries 1.7 +1.4 -12.5 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 10.7 -1.5 0.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.2 -0.9 -1.5 -
All industries 7.1 -1.1 -0.9 -
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 3 4 +1 3 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 3 4 +1 3 -1
Small Enterprises 4 3 -1 1 -2
All Enterprises 3 4 +1 2 -2
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -12 -11 +1 -10 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises -21 -21 0 -21 0
Small Enterprises -21 -20 +1 -23 -3
All Enterprises -19 -18 +1 -20 -2
[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 22 22 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 20 20 0
Small Enterprises 6 6 0
All Enterprises 13 13 0
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 26 28 +2
Medium-sized Enterprises 25 27 +2
Small Enterprises 17 20 +3
All Enterprises 20 23 +3
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -5 -31 -26 -20 +11
Medium-sized Enterprises -7 -27 -20 -21 +6
Small Enterprises -8 -24 -16 -22 +2
All Enterprises -7 -26 -19 -22 +4
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 33 38 +5