Tankan Outline (March 2016)
April 1, 2016
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,441 6,489 10,930 ( 99.4%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,087 1,043 2,130 ( 99.4%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,178 1,871 3,049 ( 99.5%)
Small Enterprises 2,176 3,575 5,751 ( 99.3%)
[Responding Period: February 25 to March 31]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
Dec. 2015 Survey March 2016 Survey
FY2015 119.40 119.80
1H 120.84 120.93
2H 118.00 118.69
FY2016 - 117.46
1H - 117.45
2H - 117.46
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change June 2016 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
[Large Enterprises]
( 7)
Manufacturing 12 6 - 6 3 - 3
( 18)
Nonmanufacturing 25 22 - 3 17 - 5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 0)
Manufacturing 5 5 0 - 2 - 7
( 12)
Nonmanufacturing 19 17 - 2 9 - 8
[Small Enterprises]
(- 4)
Manufacturing 0 - 4 - 4 - 6 - 2
( 0)
Nonmanufacturing 5 4 - 1 - 3 - 7
[All Enterprises]
( 3)
All industries 9 7 - 2 1 - 6
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change June 2016 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -10 -13 - 3 -13 0
Small Enterprises -24 -26 - 2 -27 - 1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 9 -11 - 2 - 9 + 2
Small Enterprises -17 -18 - 1 -17 + 1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 15 + 1 - -
Small Enterprises 14 14 0 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 14 + 2 - -
Small Enterprises 20 20 0 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -11 -15 - 4 -13 + 2
Small Enterprises - 9 -11 - 2 -13 - 2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 2 - 8 - 6 - 1 + 7
Small Enterprises 14 7 - 7 12 + 5
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2015 Revision FY2016 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 1.5 - 1.3 - 0.6 -
Nonmanufacturing - 1.6 0.0 - 0.3 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 - 0.9 0.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 0.3 - 0.4 1.7 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.1 + 0.1 0.5 -
Nonmanufacturing - 1.0 - 0.5 - 0.4 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries - 1.0 - 0.5 0.0 -
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2015 Revision FY2016 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 3.5 - 6.6 - 1.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 11.9 + 1.9 - 2.1 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.7 - 0.9 - 0.8 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.0 + 1.8 2.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.2 - 2.7 2.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.0 + 4.4 - 7.9 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.3 - 1.0 - 2.2 -
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2015 Changes FY2016 Changes
(Forecast) (Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.23 - 0.41 7.13 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.30 + 0.10 5.21 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.07 0.00 4.99 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.15 + 0.07 3.17 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.84 - 0.11 3.91 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.38 + 0.16 3.13 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.87 - 0.03 4.77 -
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2015 Revision FY2016 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.3 - 1.9 3.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.1 - 0.4 - 2.9 -
All industries 9.8 - 0.9 - 0.9 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.4 - 3.5 5.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.2 + 2.9 -10.0 -
All industries 5.3 + 0.5 - 4.7 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.8 + 3.3 -22.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.5 + 4.5 -18.0 -
All industries 3.9 + 4.1 -19.3 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 10.8 - 1.3 - 0.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.7 + 1.0 - 6.8 -
All industries 8.0 + 0.2 - 4.8 -
* Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2015 Revision FY2016 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.0 - 1.9 3.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 7.0 - 1.7 1.1 -
All industries 8.7 - 1.8 2.0 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.0 - 3.9 7.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.2 + 1.5 - 5.9 -
All industries 6.2 - 0.5 - 1.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.8 + 3.1 -20.9 -
Nonmanufacturing - 1.2 + 0.5 - 8.0 -
All industries 1.7 + 1.4 -12.5 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 10.7 - 1.5 0.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.2 - 0.9 - 1.5 -
All industries 7.1 - 1.1 - 0.9 -
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change June 2016 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises 3 4 + 1 3 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 3 4 + 1 3 - 1
Small Enterprises 4 3 - 1 1 - 2
All Enterprises 3 4 + 1 2 - 2
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change June 2016 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises -12 -11 + 1 -10 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises -21 -21 0 -21 0
Small Enterprises -21 -20 + 1 -23 - 3
All Enterprises -19 -18 + 1 -20 - 2
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 22 22 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 20 20 0
Small Enterprises 6 6 0
All Enterprises 13 13 0
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 26 28 + 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 25 27 + 2
Small Enterprises 17 20 + 3
All Enterprises 20 23 + 3
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change June 2016 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises - 5 -31 -26 -20 +11
Medium-sized Enterprises - 7 -27 -20 -21 + 6
Small Enterprises - 8 -24 -16 -22 + 2
All Enterprises - 7 -26 -19 -22 + 4
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2015 March 2016 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 33 38 + 5
