Tankan Outline (December 2016)
December 14, 2016
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,393 | 6,398 | 10,791 | ( 99.6%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,084 | 1,038 | 2,122 | ( 99.6%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,167 | 1,846 | 3,013 | ( 99.4%) |
Small Enterprises | 2,142 | 3,514 | 5,656 | ( 99.8%) |
[Responding Period: November 14 to December 13]
June 2016 Survey | Sept. 2016 Survey | Dec. 2016 Survey | |
---|---|---|---|
FY2015 | 119.87 | - | - |
1H | 120.98 | - | - |
2H | 118.73 | - | - |
FY2016 | 111.41 | 107.92 | 104.90 |
1H | 111.46 | 108.44 | 106.52 |
2H | 111.36 | 107.42 | 103.36 |
Sept. 2016 | Dec. 2016 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2017 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 6) | ||||
6 | 10 | +4 | 8 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 16) | ||||
18 | 18 | 0 | 16 | -2 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 1) | ||||
3 | 6 | +3 | 2 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 10) | ||||
15 | 16 | +1 | 9 | -7 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( -5) | ||||
-3 | 1 | +4 | -4 | -5 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -2) | ||||
1 | 2 | +1 | -2 | -4 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 2) | ||||
5 | 7 | +2 | 2 | -5 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Sept. 2016 | Dec. 2016 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2017 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -11 | -9 | +2 | -9 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -27 | -24 | +3 | -24 | 0 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -7 | -6 | +1 | -7 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -17 | -17 | 0 | -16 | +1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 12 | 11 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 13 | 12 | -1 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 11 | 11 | 0 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 17 | 18 | +1 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -10 | -7 | +3 | -6 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | -12 | -8 | +4 | -8 | 0 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -4 | 3 | +7 | 9 | +6 |
Small Enterprises | 5 | 12 | +7 | 23 | +11 |
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -2.3 | - | -3.7 | -2.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.8 | - | -2.8 | -1.3 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.5 | - | -0.4 | -0.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.5 | - | 1.3 | -0.1 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.6 | - | -0.9 | -0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.3 | - | -0.5 | +0.5 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | -1.3 | - | -1.6 | -0.8 |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -5.3 | - | -18.9 | -5.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.5 | - | -4.9 | -0.8 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.0 | - | -5.3 | +0.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.5 | - | -0.3 | +2.9 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.4 | - | 3.9 | +3.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 10.1 | - | -4.1 | +7.3 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.8 | - | -8.2 | -0.1 |
FY2015 | Changes | FY2016 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.15 | - | 6.02 | -0.19 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.35 | - | 5.23 | +0.03 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.09 | - | 4.85 | +0.06 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.28 | - | 3.23 | +0.09 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.94 | - | 4.13 | +0.16 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.48 | - | 3.36 | +0.21 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.91 | - | 4.58 | +0.03 |
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.4 | - | 11.2 | -1.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.0 | - | 2.5 | -0.4 |
All industries | 3.4 | - | 5.5 | -0.7 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.3 | - | 2.4 | -1.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.3 | - | -5.9 | +2.6 |
All industries | 8.7 | - | -3.0 | +0.9 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 11.5 | - | -11.2 | +4.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.2 | - | -3.8 | +2.3 |
All industries | 7.2 | - | -6.2 | +3.1 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.1 | - | 5.6 | -0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.9 | - | -0.1 | +0.6 |
All industries | 5.0 | - | 1.8 | +0.2 |
- Excludes Software Investment.
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.0 | - | 9.5 | -1.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.1 | - | 4.9 | -1.5 |
All industries | 2.8 | - | 6.6 | -1.5 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.4 | - | 3.0 | -2.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.1 | - | -6.5 | 0.0 |
All industries | 8.6 | - | -3.2 | -1.0 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 14.9 | - | -11.3 | +3.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.0 | - | 2.3 | -0.8 |
All industries | 4.2 | - | -2.5 | +0.5 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.4 | - | 4.9 | -1.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.0 | - | 2.6 | -1.1 |
All industries | 3.9 | - | 3.4 | -1.1 |
Sept. 2016 | Dec. 2016 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2017 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 4 | 3 | -1 | 1 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | -2 |
All Enterprises | 3 | 2 | -1 | 1 | -1 |
Sept. 2016 | Dec. 2016 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2017 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -12 | -13 | -1 | -13 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -20 | -23 | -3 | -23 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -20 | -24 | -4 | -27 | -3 |
All Enterprises | -19 | -21 | -2 | -23 | -2 |
Sept. 2016 | Dec. 2016 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 24 | 24 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 22 | 22 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 8 | 9 | +1 |
All Enterprises | 15 | 15 | 0 |
Sept. 2016 | Dec. 2016 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 28 | 27 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 28 | 28 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 21 | 21 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 25 | 24 | -1 |
Sept. 2016 | Dec. 2016 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2017 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -16 | -11 | +5 | 2 | +13 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -22 | -16 | +6 | -3 | +13 |
Small Enterprises | -21 | -16 | +5 | -3 | +13 |
All Enterprises | -20 | -15 | +5 | -2 | +13 |
Sept. 2016 | Dec. 2016 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 43 | 41 | -2 |