Tankan Outline (September 2018)
October 1, 2018
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,070 | 5,831 | 9,901 | ( 99.6%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,009 | 916 | 1,925 | ( 99.7%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,053 | 1,717 | 2,770 | ( 99.5%) |
Small Enterprises | 2,008 | 3,198 | 5,206 | ( 99.5%) |
[Responding Period: August 27 to September 28]
June 2018 Survey | Sept. 2018 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2017 | 110.79 | - |
1H | 110.97 | - |
2H | 110.63 | - |
FY2018 | 107.26 | 107.40 |
1H | 107.27 | 107.52 |
2H | 107.26 | 107.29 |
June 2018 | Sept. 2018 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 21) | ||||
21 | 19 | -2 | 19 | 0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 21) | ||||
24 | 22 | -2 | 22 | 0 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 16) | ||||
20 | 15 | -5 | 13 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 16) | ||||
20 | 18 | -2 | 15 | -3 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 12) | ||||
14 | 14 | 0 | 11 | -3 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 5) | ||||
8 | 10 | +2 | 5 | -5 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 13) | ||||
16 | 15 | -1 | 12 | -3 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
June 2018 | Sept. 2018 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -2 | 1 | +3 | -1 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -10 | -9 | +1 | -12 | -3 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -3 | -4 | -1 | -5 | -1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 6 | 7 | +1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 10 | 10 | 0 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 3 | 3 | 0 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 7 | 7 | 0 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 5 | 7 | +2 | 3 | -4 |
Small Enterprises | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | +1 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 30 | 27 | -3 | 23 | -4 |
Small Enterprises | 43 | 41 | -2 | 43 | +2 |
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.6 | - | 2.8 | +0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.9 | - | 2.0 | +0.6 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.3 | - | 4.0 | +0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.8 | - | 2.7 | +0.2 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.2 | - | 1.6 | +0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.4 | - | 0.4 | +0.7 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.4 | - | 2.1 | +0.5 |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 20.8 | - | -6.9 | +1.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 14.3 | - | -2.4 | +1.4 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.6 | - | 2.9 | +1.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.7 | - | -0.5 | +1.1 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.0 | - | 0.9 | +1.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.5 | - | -5.0 | +1.5 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 12.0 | - | -3.6 | +1.6 |
FY2017 | Changes | FY2018 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.52 | - | 7.72 | +0.12 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.67 | - | 6.38 | +0.06 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.23 | - | 5.17 | +0.06 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.85 | - | 3.73 | +0.03 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.71 | - | 4.68 | +0.02 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.55 | - | 3.36 | +0.03 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.83 | - | 5.50 | +0.05 |
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.3 | - | 17.5 | -0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.9 | - | 11.0 | -0.2 |
All industries | 4.1 | - | 13.4 | -0.3 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 12.7 | - | 17.2 | +0.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.6 | - | 3.7 | +1.6 |
All industries | 12.0 | - | 9.0 | +1.1 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.6 | - | 11.6 | +3.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.0 | - | -18.1 | +3.9 |
All industries | -0.5 | - | -8.4 | +3.9 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.3 | - | 16.5 | +0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.4 | - | 4.0 | +0.7 |
All industries | 4.4 | - | 8.5 | +0.6 |
- Excludes software and R&D investment.
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.8 | - | 9.6 | -0.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.7 | - | 11.1 | -0.8 |
All industries | 4.6 | - | 10.3 | -0.6 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.3 | - | 17.6 | -0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.9 | - | 10.9 | +1.5 |
All industries | 9.7 | - | 13.8 | +0.6 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.0 | - | 13.4 | +3.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.4 | - | -10.1 | +3.5 |
All industries | -0.1 | - | -1.4 | +3.5 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.4 | - | 10.9 | -0.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.8 | - | 7.4 | +0.2 |
All industries | 4.6 | - | 9.2 | +0.1 |
June 2018 | Sept. 2018 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -6 | -5 | +1 | -3 | +2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -5 | -6 | -1 | -6 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -8 | -8 | 0 | -10 | -2 |
All Enterprises | -6 | -6 | 0 | -7 | -1 |
June 2018 | Sept. 2018 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -21 | -23 | -2 | -23 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -32 | -33 | -1 | -36 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -35 | -37 | -2 | -42 | -5 |
All Enterprises | -32 | -33 | -1 | -37 | -4 |
June 2018 | Sept. 2018 | Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 24 | 23 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 24 | 24 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 13 | 12 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 18 | 18 | 0 |
June 2018 | Sept. 2018 | Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 26 | 26 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 29 | 28 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 21 | 21 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 25 | 24 | -1 |
June 2018 | Sept. 2018 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 0 | 1 | +1 | 8 | +7 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -2 | 0 | +2 | 10 | +10 |
Small Enterprises | -4 | -2 | +2 | 6 | +8 |
All Enterprises | -3 | -1 | +2 | 7 | +8 |
June 2018 | Sept. 2018 | Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 40 | 39 | -1 |