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Tankan Outline (December 2018)

December 14, 2018
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,059 5,801 9,860 ( 99.6%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,009 915 1,924 ( 99.8%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,052 1,708 2,760 ( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises 1,998 3,178 5,176 ( 99.6%)

[Responding Period: November 13 to December 13]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  June 2018 Survey Sept. 2018 Survey Dec. 2018 Survey
FY2017 110.79 - -
1H 110.97 - -
2H 110.63 - -
FY2018 107.26 107.40 109.41
1H 107.27 107.52 109.56
2H 107.26 107.29 109.26
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 19)      
19 19 0 15 -4
Nonmanufacturing   ( 22)      
22 24 +2 20 -4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 13)      
15 17 +2 11 -6
Nonmanufacturing   ( 15)      
18 17 -1 13 -4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 11)      
14 14 0 8 -6
Nonmanufacturing   ( 5)      
10 11 +1 5 -6
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 12)      
15 16 +1 10 -6

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 1 -1 -2 -2 -1
Small Enterprises -9 -11 -2 -14 -3
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 4 3 -1 0 -3
Small Enterprises -4 -6 -2 -8 -2
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 7 6 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 10 10 0 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 3 2 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 7 9 +2 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 7 6 -1 1 -5
Small Enterprises 5 4 -1 6 +2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 27 24 -3 20 -4
Small Enterprises 41 41 0 42 +1
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.6 - 3.4 +0.7
Nonmanufacturing 5.9 - 3.2 +1.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 - 4.1 +0.2
Nonmanufacturing 2.8 - 3.0 +0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.2 - 1.7 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 2.4 - 1.0 +0.5
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.4 - 2.7 +0.7

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 20.8 - 0.1 +7.6
Nonmanufacturing 14.3 - -1.7 +0.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.6 - 6.3 +3.3
Nonmanufacturing 4.7 - -0.2 +0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.0 - 0.6 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing -0.5 - -4.4 +0.6
[All Enterprises]
All industries 12.0 - -0.8 +2.9
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2017 Changes FY2018
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.52 - 8.25 +0.53
Nonmanufacturing 6.67 - 6.35 -0.03
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.23 - 5.34 +0.17
Nonmanufacturing 3.85 - 3.73 0.00
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.71 - 4.66 -0.02
Nonmanufacturing 3.55 - 3.36 0.00
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.83 - 5.63 +0.13
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.3 - 15.6 -1.6
Nonmanufacturing 2.9 - 13.5 +2.3
All industries 4.1 - 14.3 +0.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.7 - 15.0 -1.9
Nonmanufacturing 11.6 - 8.6 +4.7
All industries 12.0 - 11.1 +1.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 - 15.2 +3.2
Nonmanufacturing -1.0 - -12.8 +6.4
All industries -0.5 - -3.7 +5.2
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.3 - 15.4 -0.9
Nonmanufacturing 3.4 - 7.5 +3.3
All industries 4.4 - 10.4 +1.7
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.8 - 8.9 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing 5.7 - 12.1 +0.9
All industries 4.6 - 10.4 +0.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.3 - 14.7 -2.5
Nonmanufacturing 9.9 - 13.5 +2.3
All industries 9.7 - 14.0 +0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.0 - 15.9 +2.2
Nonmanufacturing -2.4 - -8.1 +2.2
All industries -0.1 - 0.8 +2.2
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.4 - 10.3 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing 4.8 - 8.8 +1.3
All industries 4.6 - 9.6 +0.3
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -5 -5 0 -4 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises -6 -4 +2 -5 -1
Small Enterprises -8 -7 +1 -9 -2
All Enterprises -6 -6 0 -6 0
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -23 -23 0 -24 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises -33 -34 -1 -37 -3
Small Enterprises -37 -39 -2 -43 -4
All Enterprises -33 -35 -2 -38 -3
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 23 23 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 24 23 -1
Small Enterprises 12 12 0
All Enterprises 18 17 -1
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 26 25 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 28 27 -1
Small Enterprises 21 21 0
All Enterprises 24 24 0
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 1 2 +1 9 +7
Medium-sized Enterprises 0 0 0 8 +8
Small Enterprises -2 -2 0 6 +8
All Enterprises -1 -1 0 8 +9
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 39 34 -5