Skip to main content

Tankan Outline (March 2019)

April 1, 2019
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing		 Nonmanu-
facturing		 Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,047 5,783 9,830 ( 99.4%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,007 915 1,922 ( 99.3%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,048 1,703 2,751 ( 99.5%)
Small Enterprises 1,992 3,165 5,157 ( 99.4%)

[Responding Period: February 25 to March 29]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  Dec. 2018 Survey March 2019 Survey
FY2018 109.41 109.50
1H 109.56 109.64
2H 109.26 109.38
FY2019 - 108.87
1H - 108.80
2H - 108.93
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  Dec. 2018 March 2019 Change
between
Dec. and
March		 June 2019
(Forecast)		 Change
between
March and
June
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 15)      
19 12 -7 8 -4
Nonmanufacturing   ( 20)      
24 21 -3 20 -1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 11)      
17 7 -10 3 -4
Nonmanufacturing   ( 13)      
17 18 +1 12 -6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 8)      
14 6 -8 -2 -8
Nonmanufacturing   ( 5)      
11 12 +1 5 -7
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 10)      
16 12 -4 7 -5

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  Dec. 2018 March 2019 Change
between
Dec. and
March		 June 2019
(Forecast)		 Change
between
March and
June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -1 -6 -5 -6 0
Small Enterprises -11 -16 -5 -18 -2
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 3 -5 -8 -4 +1
Small Enterprises -6 -9 -3 -12 -3
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 6 8 +2 - -
Small Enterprises 10 13 +3 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 2 8 +6 - -
Small Enterprises 9 12 +3 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 6 1 -5 -2 -3
Small Enterprises 4 3 -1 5 +2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 24 17 -7 16 -1
Small Enterprises 41 37 -4 40 +3
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate		 FY2019
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.3 -1.1 0.5 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.8 -0.4 1.1 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.5 -0.6 1.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.9 0.0 2.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.9 +0.2 0.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.4 +0.4 -0.4 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 2.4 -0.3 0.8 -

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate		 FY2019
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -1.9 -2.0 -1.3 -
Nonmanufacturing -0.9 +0.9 -1.3 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.9 -3.2 2.1 -
Nonmanufacturing -0.1 +0.1 -1.5 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -2.8 -3.4 0.3 -
Nonmanufacturing -4.4 0.0 1.6 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries -1.5 -0.7 -0.7 -
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2018
(Forecast)		 Changes FY2019
(Forecast)		 Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.17 -0.08 8.02 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.43 +0.08 6.28 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.20 -0.14 5.24 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.74 +0.01 3.60 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.49 -0.17 4.50 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.35 -0.01 3.41 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.61 -0.02 5.52 -
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate		 FY2019
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.0 -4.0 6.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 15.7 +1.9 -1.6 -
All industries 13.9 -0.3 1.2 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.9 -4.5 -5.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.8 +0.1 -7.5 -
All industries 9.2 -1.7 -6.6 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.7 -2.2 -6.1 -
Nonmanufacturing -7.1 +6.5 -20.1 -
All industries -0.7 +3.1 -14.9 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.1 -3.8 2.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 10.0 +2.4 -5.6 -
All industries 10.4 0.0 -2.8 -
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate		 FY2019
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.7 -1.2 3.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 12.9 +0.7 0.6 -
All industries 10.0 -0.3 2.1 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.9 -4.2 -2.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 10.9 -2.3 1.1 -
All industries 10.4 -3.1 -0.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.8 -2.7 -4.1 -
Nonmanufacturing -3.8 +4.7 -12.6 -
All industries 2.3 +1.5 -9.1 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.4 -1.7 2.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 9.7 +0.8 -1.3 -
All industries 9.1 -0.5 0.4 -
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  Dec. 2018 March 2019 Change
between
Dec. and
March		 June 2019
(Forecast)		 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -5 -2 +3 -2 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -4 -2 +2 -4 -2
Small Enterprises -7 -4 +3 -5 -1
All Enterprises -6 -3 +3 -4 -1
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  Dec. 2018 March 2019 Change
between
Dec. and
March		 June 2019
(Forecast)		 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -23 -23 0 -24 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises -34 -35 -1 -35 0
Small Enterprises -39 -39 0 -42 -3
All Enterprises -35 -35 0 -36 -1
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  Dec. 2018 March 2019 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 23 22 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 23 22 -1
Small Enterprises 12 12 0
All Enterprises 17 16 -1
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2018 March 2019 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 25 25 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 27 27 0
Small Enterprises 21 21 0
All Enterprises 24 24 0
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  Dec. 2018 March 2019 Change
between
Dec. and
March		 June 2019
(Forecast)		 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 2 -1 -3 5 +6
Medium-sized Enterprises 0 -2 -2 5 +7
Small Enterprises -2 -2 0 5 +7
All Enterprises -1 -1 0 5 +6
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2018 March 2019 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 34 32 -2