Tankan Outline (June 2019)
July 1, 2019
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,017 | 5,753 | 9,770 | ( 99.4%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,002 | 913 | 1,915 | ( 99.2%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,044 | 1,695 | 2,739 | ( 99.3%) |
Small Enterprises | 1,971 | 3,145 | 5,116 | ( 99.5%) |
[Responding Period: May 28 to June 28]
March 2019 Survey | June 2019 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2018 | 109.50 | 110.33 |
1H | 109.64 | 109.64 |
2H | 109.38 | 110.98 |
FY2019 | 108.87 | 109.35 |
1H | 108.80 | 109.36 |
2H | 108.93 | 109.34 |
March 2019 | June 2019 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 8) | ||||
12 | 7 | -5 | 7 | 0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 20) | ||||
21 | 23 | +2 | 17 | -6 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 3) | ||||
7 | 5 | -2 | 0 | -5 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 12) | ||||
18 | 18 | 0 | 11 | -7 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( -2) | ||||
6 | -1 | -7 | -5 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 5) | ||||
12 | 10 | -2 | 3 | -7 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 7) | ||||
12 | 10 | -2 | 4 | -6 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
March 2019 | June 2019 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -6 | -8 | -2 | -7 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | -16 | -20 | -4 | -21 | -1 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -5 | -7 | -2 | -6 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | -9 | -12 | -3 | -13 | -1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 8 | 11 | +3 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 13 | 15 | +2 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 8 | 10 | +2 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 12 | 17 | +5 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | -1 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 17 | 11 | -6 | 13 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | 37 | 32 | -5 | 35 | +3 |
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.9 | +0.6 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.0 | -0.8 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.9 | +0.4 | 1.4 | +0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.1 | +0.2 | 3.0 | +0.9 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.4 | +0.4 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.1 | +0.8 | -0.5 | +0.6 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 2.5 | +0.1 | 1.1 | +0.4 |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -0.9 | +1.0 | -8.1 | -5.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.1 | +0.8 | -1.4 | +0.7 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.8 | +2.9 | -1.6 | -0.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.0 | +4.1 | -4.2 | +1.3 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -1.8 | +1.1 | -4.8 | -4.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.1 | +5.8 | -3.8 | +0.2 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 0.4 | +1.9 | -4.3 | -1.8 |
FY2018 | Changes | FY2019 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.21 | +0.04 | 7.47 | -0.55 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.53 | +0.10 | 6.34 | +0.06 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.33 | +0.13 | 5.16 | -0.08 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.88 | +0.14 | 3.61 | +0.01 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.52 | +0.03 | 4.32 | -0.18 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.51 | +0.16 | 3.40 | -0.01 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.71 | +0.10 | 5.40 | -0.12 |
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.0 | -3.6 | 12.9 | +2.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 7.4 | -7.1 | 4.2 | -1.7 |
All industries | 7.3 | -5.9 | 7.4 | -0.1 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.4 | -3.2 | 0.3 | +2.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.5 | +0.7 | -7.3 | +0.9 |
All industries | 8.3 | -0.8 | -4.4 | +1.5 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 17.2 | +4.0 | -3.0 | +7.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | -4.4 | +3.0 | -13.0 | +12.2 |
All industries | 2.6 | +3.3 | -9.3 | +10.2 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.6 | -2.2 | 7.7 | +3.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.4 | -4.2 | -0.8 | +0.7 |
All industries | 6.6 | -3.5 | 2.3 | +1.7 |
- Excludes software and R&D investment.
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.3 | -3.1 | 8.5 | +1.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.7 | -7.2 | 7.7 | -0.7 |
All industries | 4.5 | -5.0 | 8.2 | +0.6 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.5 | -3.1 | 3.3 | +2.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 10.3 | -0.5 | 1.2 | -0.4 |
All industries | 8.7 | -1.6 | 2.1 | +0.8 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 17.0 | +3.8 | -2.9 | +5.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.1 | +1.8 | -5.0 | +10.6 |
All industries | 5.0 | +2.6 | -4.2 | +8.2 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.8 | -2.4 | 6.7 | +2.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.4 | -4.8 | 4.6 | +0.8 |
All industries | 5.1 | -3.6 | 5.7 | +1.5 |
March 2019 | June 2019 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -2 | -1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -2 | 0 | +2 | -1 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -4 | -2 | +2 | -4 | -2 |
All Enterprises | -3 | -1 | +2 | -2 | -1 |
March 2019 | June 2019 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -23 | -21 | +2 | -22 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -35 | -34 | +1 | -36 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -39 | -36 | +3 | -41 | -5 |
All Enterprises | -35 | -32 | +3 | -35 | -3 |
March 2019 | June 2019 | Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 22 | 21 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 22 | 22 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 12 | 12 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 16 | 17 | +1 |
March 2019 | June 2019 | Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 25 | 25 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 27 | 27 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 21 | 20 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 24 | 23 | -1 |
March 2019 | June 2019 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -1 | -2 | -1 | 2 | +4 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -2 | -1 | +1 | 4 | +5 |
Small Enterprises | -2 | -2 | 0 | 4 | +6 |
All Enterprises | -1 | -2 | -1 | 4 | +6 |
March 2019 | June 2019 | Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 32 | 32 | 0 |