Statistics

Home > Statistics > TANKAN > TANKAN (Outline) > Tankan Outline (June 2019)

Tankan Outline (June 2019)

July 1, 2019
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,017 5,753 9,770 ( 99.4%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,002 913 1,915 ( 99.2%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,044 1,695 2,739 ( 99.3%)
Small Enterprises 1,971 3,145 5,116 ( 99.5%)

[Responding Period: May 28 to June 28]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  March 2019 Survey June 2019 Survey
FY2018 109.50 110.33
1H 109.64 109.64
2H 109.38 110.98
FY2019 108.87 109.35
1H 108.80 109.36
2H 108.93 109.34
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  March 2019 June 2019 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 8)      
12 7 -5 7 0
Nonmanufacturing   ( 20)      
21 23 +2 17 -6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 3)      
7 5 -2 0 -5
Nonmanufacturing   ( 12)      
18 18 0 11 -7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( -2)      
6 -1 -7 -5 -4
Nonmanufacturing   ( 5)      
12 10 -2 3 -7
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 7)      
12 10 -2 4 -6

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  March 2019 June 2019 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -6 -8 -2 -7 +1
Small Enterprises -16 -20 -4 -21 -1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -5 -7 -2 -6 +1
Small Enterprises -9 -12 -3 -13 -1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 8 11 +3 - -
Small Enterprises 13 15 +2 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 8 10 +2 - -
Small Enterprises 12 17 +5 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 1 -2 -3 -4 -2
Small Enterprises 3 1 -2 0 -1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 17 11 -6 13 +2
Small Enterprises 37 32 -5 35 +3
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.9 +0.6 1.0 +1.0
Nonmanufacturing 2.0 -0.8 1.6 -0.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.9 +0.4 1.4 +0.5
Nonmanufacturing 3.1 +0.2 3.0 +0.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.4 +0.4 -0.5 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing 2.1 +0.8 -0.5 +0.6
[All Enterprises]
All industries 2.5 +0.1 1.1 +0.4

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -0.9 +1.0 -8.1 -5.9
Nonmanufacturing -0.1 +0.8 -1.4 +0.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.8 +2.9 -1.6 -0.9
Nonmanufacturing 4.0 +4.1 -4.2 +1.3
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -1.8 +1.1 -4.8 -4.1
Nonmanufacturing 1.1 +5.8 -3.8 +0.2
[All Enterprises]
All industries 0.4 +1.9 -4.3 -1.8
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2018 Changes FY2019
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.21 +0.04 7.47 -0.55
Nonmanufacturing 6.53 +0.10 6.34 +0.06
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.33 +0.13 5.16 -0.08
Nonmanufacturing 3.88 +0.14 3.61 +0.01
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.52 +0.03 4.32 -0.18
Nonmanufacturing 3.51 +0.16 3.40 -0.01
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.71 +0.10 5.40 -0.12
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.0 -3.6 12.9 +2.5
Nonmanufacturing 7.4 -7.1 4.2 -1.7
All industries 7.3 -5.9 7.4 -0.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.4 -3.2 0.3 +2.4
Nonmanufacturing 9.5 +0.7 -7.3 +0.9
All industries 8.3 -0.8 -4.4 +1.5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.2 +4.0 -3.0 +7.4
Nonmanufacturing -4.4 +3.0 -13.0 +12.2
All industries 2.6 +3.3 -9.3 +10.2
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.6 -2.2 7.7 +3.2
Nonmanufacturing 5.4 -4.2 -0.8 +0.7
All industries 6.6 -3.5 2.3 +1.7
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 -3.1 8.5 +1.7
Nonmanufacturing 4.7 -7.2 7.7 -0.7
All industries 4.5 -5.0 8.2 +0.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.5 -3.1 3.3 +2.4
Nonmanufacturing 10.3 -0.5 1.2 -0.4
All industries 8.7 -1.6 2.1 +0.8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.0 +3.8 -2.9 +5.0
Nonmanufacturing -2.1 +1.8 -5.0 +10.6
All industries 5.0 +2.6 -4.2 +8.2
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.8 -2.4 6.7 +2.1
Nonmanufacturing 4.4 -4.8 4.6 +0.8
All industries 5.1 -3.6 5.7 +1.5
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  March 2019 June 2019 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -2 -1 +1 -1 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -2 0 +2 -1 -1
Small Enterprises -4 -2 +2 -4 -2
All Enterprises -3 -1 +2 -2 -1
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  March 2019 June 2019 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -23 -21 +2 -22 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises -35 -34 +1 -36 -2
Small Enterprises -39 -36 +3 -41 -5
All Enterprises -35 -32 +3 -35 -3
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  March 2019 June 2019 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 22 21 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 22 22 0
Small Enterprises 12 12 0
All Enterprises 16 17 +1
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  March 2019 June 2019 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 25 25 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 27 27 0
Small Enterprises 21 20 -1
All Enterprises 24 23 -1
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  March 2019 June 2019 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -1 -2 -1 2 +4
Medium-sized Enterprises -2 -1 +1 4 +5
Small Enterprises -2 -2 0 4 +6
All Enterprises -1 -2 -1 4 +6
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  March 2019 June 2019 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 32 32 0