Tankan Outline (September 2019)
October 1, 2019
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,004 | 5,715 | 9,719 | ( 99.5%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,000 | 910 | 1,910 | ( 99.6%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,037 | 1,683 | 2,720 | ( 99.6%) |
Small Enterprises | 1,967 | 3,122 | 5,089 | ( 99.4%) |
[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]
June 2019 Survey | Sept. 2019 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2018 | 110.33 | - |
1H | 109.64 | - |
2H | 110.98 | - |
FY2019 | 109.35 | 108.68 |
1H | 109.36 | 108.86 |
2H | 109.34 | 108.50 |
June 2019 | Sept. 2019 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 7) | ||||
7 | 5 | -2 | 2 | -3 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 17) | ||||
23 | 21 | -2 | 15 | -6 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 0) | ||||
5 | 2 | -3 | -1 | -3 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 11) | ||||
18 | 18 | 0 | 9 | -9 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( -5) | ||||
-1 | -4 | -3 | -9 | -5 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 3) | ||||
10 | 10 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 4) | ||||
10 | 8 | -2 | 2 | -6 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
June 2019 | Sept. 2019 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -8 | -8 | 0 | -9 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -20 | -23 | -3 | -24 | -1 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -7 | -8 | -1 | -9 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -12 | -16 | -4 | -17 | -1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 11 | 12 | +1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 15 | 17 | +2 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 10 | 12 | +2 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 17 | 18 | +1 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -2 | -4 | -2 | -5 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 1 | -2 | -3 | -2 | 0 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 11 | 5 | -6 | 9 | +4 |
Small Enterprises | 32 | 26 | -6 | 30 | +4 |
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.9 | - | 0.4 | -0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.0 | - | 0.9 | -0.7 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.9 | - | 0.8 | -0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.1 | - | 2.6 | -0.3 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.4 | - | -1.5 | -1.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.1 | - | -0.2 | +0.3 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 2.5 | - | 0.7 | -0.4 |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -0.9 | - | -10.2 | -2.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.1 | - | -4.8 | -3.4 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.8 | - | -5.7 | -4.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.0 | - | -3.6 | +0.6 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -1.8 | - | -10.4 | -5.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.1 | - | -4.4 | -0.7 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 0.4 | - | -6.7 | -2.5 |
FY2018 | Changes | FY2019 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.21 | - | 7.35 | -0.12 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.53 | - | 6.16 | -0.18 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.33 | - | 4.98 | -0.18 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.88 | - | 3.65 | +0.04 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.52 | - | 4.11 | -0.21 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.51 | - | 3.36 | -0.04 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.71 | - | 5.29 | -0.11 |
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.0 | - | 11.8 | -1.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 7.4 | - | 3.6 | -0.5 |
All industries | 7.3 | - | 6.6 | -0.7 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.4 | - | -1.1 | -1.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.5 | - | -5.4 | +2.0 |
All industries | 8.3 | - | -3.7 | +0.6 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 17.2 | - | -0.1 | +3.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | -4.4 | - | -10.5 | +2.8 |
All industries | 2.6 | - | -6.7 | +2.9 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.6 | - | 7.3 | -0.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.4 | - | -0.4 | +0.4 |
All industries | 6.6 | - | 2.4 | +0.1 |
- Excludes software and R&D investment.
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.3 | - | 8.0 | -0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.7 | - | 6.8 | -0.9 |
All industries | 4.5 | - | 7.4 | -0.7 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.5 | - | 1.1 | -2.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 10.3 | - | 2.6 | +1.4 |
All industries | 8.7 | - | 2.0 | -0.1 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 17.0 | - | -1.6 | +1.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.1 | - | -3.7 | +1.4 |
All industries | 5.0 | - | -2.8 | +1.4 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.8 | - | 6.2 | -0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.4 | - | 4.4 | -0.2 |
All industries | 5.1 | - | 5.3 | -0.4 |
June 2019 | Sept. 2019 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -2 | -1 | +1 | -3 | -2 |
All Enterprises | -1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 |
June 2019 | Sept. 2019 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -21 | -21 | 0 | -22 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -34 | -32 | +2 | -34 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -36 | -36 | 0 | -39 | -3 |
All Enterprises | -32 | -32 | 0 | -35 | -3 |
June 2019 | Sept. 2019 | Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 21 | 22 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 22 | 22 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 12 | 12 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 17 | 16 | -1 |
June 2019 | Sept. 2019 | Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 25 | 23 | -2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 27 | 26 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 20 | 20 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 23 | 23 | 0 |
June 2019 | Sept. 2019 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -2 | -3 | -1 | 1 | +4 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -1 | -2 | -1 | 3 | +5 |
Small Enterprises | -2 | -2 | 0 | 3 | +5 |
All Enterprises | -2 | -2 | 0 | 3 | +5 |
June 2019 | Sept. 2019 | Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 32 | 35 | +3 |