Tankan Outline (March 2021)
April 1, 2021
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manufacturing | Nonmanufacturing | Total | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 3,917 | 5,561 | 9,478 | ( 99.0%) | |
All Enterprises | of which Large Enterprises | 988 | 895 | 1,883 | ( 98.6%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,021 | 1,642 | 2,663 | ( 99.1%) | |
Small Enterprises | 1,908 | 3,024 | 4,932 | ( 99.1%) |
[Responding Period: February 25 to March 31]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses
Dec. 2020 Survey | March 2021 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 | 106.79 | 106.66 | |
FY 2020 | 1H | 107.03 | 107.00 |
2H | 106.55 | 106.32 | |
FY 2021 | - | 106.07 | |
FY 2021 | 1H | - | 106.04 |
2H | - | 106.10 |
Dec. 2020 Survey | March 2021 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 | 121.04 | 121.76 | |
FY 2020 | 1H | 120.99 | 121.06 |
2H | 121.10 | 122.47 | |
FY 2021 | - | 123.10 | |
FY 2021 | 1H | - | 123.09 |
2H | - | 123.11 |
Business Conditions
Large Enterprises
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( -8) | ||||
-10 | 5 | +15 | 4 | -1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -6) | ||||
-5 | -1 | +4 | -1 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( -17) | ||||
-17 | -2 | +15 | -6 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -17) | ||||
-14 | -11 | +3 | -12 | -1 |
Small Enterprises
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( -26) | ||||
-27 | -13 | +14 | -12 | +1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -20) | ||||
-12 | -11 | +1 | -16 | -5 |
All Enterprises
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | ( -18) | ||||
-15 | -8 | +7 | -10 | -2 |
(Notes)
- FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -21 | -13 | +8 | -11 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | -35 | -26 | +9 | -27 | -1 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -17 | -6 | +11 | -6 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -31 | -18 | +13 | -18 | 0 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 18 | 10 | -8 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 20 | 13 | -7 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 15 | 8 | -7 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 24 | 16 | -8 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -6 | -2 | +4 | -2 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -5 | 0 | +5 | 2 | +2 |
Change in Input Prices
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 5 | 15 | +10 | 18 | +3 |
Small Enterprises | 16 | 29 | +13 | 36 | +7 |
Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -8.3 | +0.9 | 2.6 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -8.7 | -0.2 | 1.7 | - |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -6.9 | +0.6 | 4.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.8 | +0.3 | 2.9 | - |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -8.7 | +0.8 | 3.3 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.9 | +0.6 | 2.0 | - |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | -8.2 | +0.4 | 2.4 | - |
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.
Current Profits
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -17.5 | +10.7 | 1.8 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -42.3 | -0.6 | 5.6 | - |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -19.5 | +13.2 | 5.4 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -32.5 | +9.7 | 16.9 | - |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -25.5 | +23.6 | 20.6 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -30.1 | +10.8 | 22.9 | - |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | -30.3 | +7.6 | 8.6 | - |
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 6.30 | +0.56 | 6.25 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.91 | -0.01 | 4.06 | - |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.52 | +0.50 | 4.57 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.71 | +0.23 | 3.08 | - |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 3.10 | +0.57 | 3.62 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.68 | +0.25 | 3.22 | - |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 3.97 | +0.27 | 4.21 | - |
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -3.0 | -2.5 | 3.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -4.3 | -2.7 | 2.9 | - |
All industries | -3.8 | -2.6 | 3.0 | - |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -8.5 | -4.2 | 6.4 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -4.1 | -0.8 | -9.1 | - |
All industries | -5.7 | -2.1 | -3.6 | - |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -13.1 | -2.1 | -1.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -9.9 | +6.5 | -7.9 | - |
All industries | -11.1 | +3.3 | -5.5 | - |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -5.7 | -2.7 | 3.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -5.3 | -0.9 | -1.0 | - |
All industries | -5.5 | -1.6 | 0.5 | - |
Reference
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | -6.7 | -1.8 | -0.3 | - |
- * Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -3.5 | -1.9 | 2.8 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -4.5 | -3.7 | 3.8 | - |
All industries | -4.0 | -2.7 | 3.2 | - |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -5.8 | -3.8 | 7.3 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -3.8 | -2.0 | -3.1 | - |
All industries | -4.6 | -2.7 | 1.0 | - |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -12.1 | -2.6 | 3.6 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -11.4 | +4.6 | -5.8 | - |
All industries | -11.7 | +1.6 | -2.1 | - |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -4.6 | -2.1 | 3.3 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -5.5 | -2.2 | 1.2 | - |
All industries | -5.1 | -2.2 | 2.3 | - |
Reference
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | -5.5 | -2.4 | 2.2 | - |
Production Capacity (Manufacturing)
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 13 | 6 | -7 | 4 | -2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 11 | 7 | -4 | 5 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | 13 | 8 | -5 | 5 | -3 |
All Enterprises | 12 | 7 | -5 | 5 | -2 |
Employment Conditions (All industries)
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -4 | -5 | -1 | -8 | -3 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -10 | -11 | -1 | -14 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -13 | -15 | -2 | -18 | -3 |
All Enterprises | -10 | -12 | -2 | -16 | -4 |
Financial Position (All industries)
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 11 | 14 | +3 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 10 | 11 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 4 | 6 | +2 |
All Enterprises | 7 | 9 | +2 |
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 15 | 16 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 20 | 21 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 19 | 19 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 18 | 18 | 0 |
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 1 | 3 | +2 | 5 | +2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -1 | 1 | +2 | 6 | +5 |
Small Enterprises | -4 | -2 | +2 | 4 | +6 |
All Enterprises | -2 | -1 | +1 | 5 | +6 |
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 20 | 24 | +4 |
Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook
Output Prices
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | -0.3 | -0.1 | +0.2 |
3 years ahead | -0.5 | -0.3 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | -0.6 | -0.4 | +0.2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
3 years ahead | 0.6 | 0.9 | +0.3 | |
5 years ahead | 1.1 | 1.3 | +0.2 |
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.0 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
3 years ahead | 0.8 | 1.3 | +0.5 | |
5 years ahead | 1.7 | 1.9 | +0.2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.0 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
3 years ahead | 0.9 | 1.1 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 1.7 | 2.0 | +0.3 |
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | -0.1 | 0.2 | +0.3 |
3 years ahead | 0.6 | 0.9 | +0.3 | |
5 years ahead | 1.3 | 1.5 | +0.2 |
General Prices
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 0.4 | 0.5 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 0.5 | 0.6 | +0.1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.3 | 0.5 | +0.2 |
3 years ahead | 0.7 | 0.9 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 1.0 | 1.1 | +0.1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.4 | 0.5 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 1.0 | 1.1 | +0.1 |
Dec. 2020 Survey |
March 2021 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | 0.3 | 0.4 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 0.7 | 0.8 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 0.9 | 1.0 | +0.1 |
Overseas Business Activities
Number of Sample Enterprises
Enterprises | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 400 | ( 54.8%) | |
Manufacturing | Basic materials | 145 | ( 57.9%) |
Processing | 255 | ( 52.9%) | |
Nonmanufacturing | 197 | ( 48.7%) | |
All industries | 597 | ( 52.8%) |
[Responding Period: February 25 to March 31]
Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Consolidated Sales | Overseas Sales | Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2021 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | -8.8 | 2.3 | -6.8 | 2.3 | 51.65 | 51.63 |
Nonmanufacturing | -6.6 | 2.1 | -5.1 | 5.9 | 21.90 | 22.71 |
All industries | -7.8 | 2.2 | -6.4 | 3.2 | 38.11 | 38.48 |
Consolidated Current Profits
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2021 (Forecast) | |
---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 0.6 | 5.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -36.2 | 1.4 |
All industries | -16.7 | 3.9 |
Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Consolidated Fixed Investment | Overseas Fixed Investment | Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2021 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | -6.8 | 3.1 | -6.6 | 4.5 | 36.04 | 36.53 |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.0 | 1.5 | -2.3 | 7.5 | 12.98 | 13.74 |
All industries | -3.9 | 2.3 | -5.5 | 5.3 | 24.16 | 24.87 |