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TANKAN Outline (June 2006)


July 3, 2006
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Click here for the TANKAN Summary.

Number of Sample Enterprises

                                            Manu-      Nonmanu-      Total      (Response
                                          facturing    facturing                   rate)
All Enterprises                                 4,121       5,843        9,964    ( 98.1%)
of which Large Enterprises                      1,175       1,200        2,375    ( 99.1%)
         Medium-sized Enterprises               1,113       1,571        2,684    ( 97.9%)
         Small Enterprises                      1,833       3,072        4,905    ( 97.7%)

[Responding Period: May 31 to June 30]



Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
                           March 2006 Survey         June 2006 Survey
                    FY2005        109.57                   111.47
                        1H        108.46                   108.60
                        2H        110.62                   114.07

                    FY2006        110.60                   111.09
                        1H        110.58                   111.19
                        2H        110.61                   110.99





[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)

                            March 2006    June 2006     Change    Sept. 2006    Change
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between
                                                      March and                 June and
                                                         June                    Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
                                            ( 22)
   Manufacturing                 20           21         + 1           22         + 1
                                            ( 19)
   Nonmanufacturing              18           20         + 2           21         + 1

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
                                            ( 12)
   Manufacturing                 12           13         + 1           13           0
                                            (  5)
   Nonmanufacturing               3            4         + 1            6         + 2

[Small Enterprises]
                                            (  9)
   Manufacturing                  7            7           0            7           0
                                            (- 8)
   Nonmanufacturing             - 9          - 6         + 3          - 9         - 3

[All Enterprises]
                                            (  6)
   All industries                 5            6         + 1            6           0

(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
           1H...first half (April - September)
           2H...second half (October - March of the following year).
        2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.



[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
                            March 2006    June 2006     Change    Sept. 2006    Change
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between
                                                      March and                 June and
                                                         June                    Sept.

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
   Large Enterprises            - 8          - 7         + 1          - 7           0
   Small Enterprises            -20          -21         - 1          -21           0

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products  (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
   Large Enterprises              0            3         + 3            2         - 1
   Small Enterprises            -10          - 7         + 3          - 7           0

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
   Large Enterprises             14           14           0           -           -
   Small Enterprises             15           16         + 1           -           -

Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
   Large Enterprises             11           11           0           -           -
   Small Enterprises             14           15         + 1           -           -

Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
   Large Enterprises            - 8          - 3         + 5          - 3           0
   Small Enterprises            - 9          - 7         + 2          - 6         + 1

Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
   Large Enterprises             34           41         + 7           31         -10
   Small Enterprises             39           47         + 8           50         + 3



[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
                              FY2005      Revision      FY2006     Revision
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate
[Large Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                 6.7        + 0.8         2.6        + 0.8
   Nonmanufacturing              6.1        + 1.7         2.0        + 2.0

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                 3.6        + 0.7         5.3        + 3.0
   Nonmanufacturing              1.8        + 0.5         3.6        + 1.0

[Small Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                 5.6        + 1.0         1.8        + 0.9
   Nonmanufacturing              2.9        + 0.3         0.6        + 0.3

[All Enterprises]
   All industries                4.8        + 0.9         2.2        + 1.2

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
       the current and the previous survey.


[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
                              FY2005      Revision      FY2006     Revision
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate
[Large Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                16.5        + 7.0       - 0.3        + 4.6
   Nonmanufacturing             10.0        + 5.7         2.1        + 4.7

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                 9.4        + 3.1         4.3        + 1.4
   Nonmanufacturing             12.4        + 2.3         4.5        + 1.5

[Small Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                 8.4        + 4.4         2.3        - 3.7
   Nonmanufacturing              9.7        + 5.7         1.1        - 2.7

[All Enterprises]
   All industries               12.3        + 5.6         1.5        + 2.7



[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
                              FY2005      Revision      FY2006     Revision
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate
[Large Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                6.48       + 0.38         6.30      + 0.23
   Nonmanufacturing             3.93       + 0.15         3.94      + 0.10

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                4.37       + 0.10         4.33      - 0.06
   Nonmanufacturing             2.66       + 0.05         2.68      + 0.01

[Small Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                3.76       + 0.13         3.78      - 0.18
   Nonmanufacturing             2.43       + 0.13         2.44      - 0.08

[All Enterprises]
   All industries               4.01       + 0.18         3.98      + 0.06



[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
                              FY2005      Revision      FY2006     Revision
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate
[Large Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                13.9        - 2.6        16.4        + 8.2
   Nonmanufacturing              3.8        - 2.9         8.9        + 4.1
   All industries                7.2        - 2.8        11.6        + 5.6

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                21.0        + 0.8       - 1.6        + 7.1
   Nonmanufacturing             10.9        - 0.5         6.2        + 4.3
   All industries               13.9        - 0.1         3.7        + 5.1

[Small Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                 8.0        + 0.4       - 1.3        +16.3
   Nonmanufacturing             11.7        + 2.6       -14.6        + 5.1
   All industries               10.7        + 2.0       -11.0        + 8.2

[All Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                14.0        - 1.7        11.0        + 9.0
   Nonmanufacturing              6.5        - 1.4         3.8        + 4.3
   All industries                8.9        - 1.5         6.2        + 5.9

                                        * Excludes Software Investment

[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
                              FY2005      Revision      FY2006     Revision
                                            rate      (Forecast)     rate
[Large Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                13.3        - 3.0        16.7        + 7.5
   Nonmanufacturing              3.5        - 4.1         9.8        + 2.7
   All industries                6.8        - 3.7        12.2        + 4.4

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                15.0        + 0.7         5.5        + 6.5
   Nonmanufacturing             12.6        + 0.3         2.6        + 0.7
   All industries               13.3        + 0.4         3.5        + 2.4

[Small Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                 5.0        - 0.6         3.9        +14.0
   Nonmanufacturing             16.0        + 1.6       -11.1        + 3.7
   All industries               12.8        + 1.0       - 7.1        + 6.6

[All Enterprises]
   Manufacturing                12.4        - 2.1        13.3        + 8.1
   Nonmanufacturing              7.1        - 2.4         4.8        + 2.5
   All industries                8.8        - 2.3         7.6        + 4.4



[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
                            March 2006    June 2006     Change    Sept. 2006    Change
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between
                                                      March and                 June and
                                                         June                    Sept.

   Large Enterprises            - 1          - 1           0            0         + 1

   Medium-sized Enterprises       1          - 1         - 2          - 1           0

   Small Enterprises              0            1         + 1          - 3         - 4

   All Enterprises                0            0           0          - 2         - 2






[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
                            March 2006    June 2006     Change    Sept. 2006    Change
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between
                                                      March and                 June and
                                                         June                    Sept.

   Large Enterprises            - 6          - 7         - 1          -10         - 3

   Medium-sized Enterprises     - 8          - 7         + 1          -11         - 4

   Small Enterprises            - 8          - 4         + 4          - 9         - 5

   All Enterprises              - 7          - 5         + 2          -10         - 5




[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
                            March 2006    June 2006     Change
                                                       between
                                                      March and
                                                         June

   Large Enterprises             22           22           0

   Medium-sized Enterprises       9            9           0

   Small Enterprises            - 1            0         + 1

   All Enterprises                7            8         + 1




[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
                            March 2006    June 2006     Change
                                                       between
                                                      March and
                                                         June

   Large Enterprises             27           25         - 2

   Medium-sized Enterprises      16           16           0

   Small Enterprises             12           11         - 1

   All Enterprises               16           16           0


[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
                            March 2006    June 2006     Change    Sept. 2006    Change
                                                       between    (Forecast)    between
                                                      March and                 June and
                                                         June                    Sept.

   Large Enterprises             10           27         +17           42         +15

   Medium-sized Enterprises       5           20         +15           41         +21

   Small Enterprises              5           16         +11           38         +22

   All Enterprises                6           20         +14           40         +20




[Condition for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
                            March 2006    June 2006     Change
                                                       between
                                                      March and
                                                         June

   Large Enterprises              3            2         - 1

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