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TANKAN Outline (September 2006)
October 2, 2006
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Click here for the TANKAN Summary.
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,096 5,767 9,863 ( 98.6%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,173 1,195 2,368 ( 99.2%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,106 1,551 2,657 ( 98.8%)
Small Enterprises 1,817 3,021 4,838 ( 98.3%)
[Responding Period: August 30 to September 29]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
June 2006 Survey Sept.2006 Survey
FY2005 111.47 -
1H 108.60 -
2H 114.07 -
FY2006 111.09 111.64
1H 111.19 111.99
2H 110.99 111.31
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
June 2006 Sept. 2006 Change Dec. 2006 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
( 22)
Manufacturing 21 24 + 3 21 - 3
( 21)
Nonmanufacturing 20 20 0 21 + 1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 13)
Manufacturing 13 14 + 1 11 - 3
( 6)
Nonmanufacturing 4 5 + 1 4 - 1
[Small Enterprises]
( 7)
Manufacturing 7 6 - 1 7 + 1
(- 9)
Nonmanufacturing - 6 - 8 - 2 - 9 - 1
[All Enterprises]
( 6)
All industries 6 6 0 6 0
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year).
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
June 2006 Sept. 2006 Change Dec. 2006 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 7 - 6 + 1 - 7 - 1
Small Enterprises -21 -21 0 -22 - 1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 3 3 0 2 - 1
Small Enterprises - 7 - 7 0 - 8 - 1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 15 + 1 - -
Small Enterprises 16 13 - 3 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 11 11 0 - -
Small Enterprises 15 16 + 1 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises - 3 2 + 5 - 2 - 4
Small Enterprises - 7 - 4 + 3 - 2 + 2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 41 45 + 4 34 -11
Small Enterprises 47 52 + 5 54 + 2
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2005 Revision FY2006 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.7 - 3.7 + 1.1
Nonmanufacturing 6.1 - 2.7 + 0.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.6 - 5.2 - 0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1.8 - 3.9 + 0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.6 - 2.4 + 0.7
Nonmanufacturing 2.9 - 0.7 + 0.1
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.8 - 2.8 + 0.5
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2005 Revision FY2006 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 16.5 - 1.4 + 1.7
Nonmanufacturing 10.0 - 2.0 - 0.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.4 - 5.3 + 1.0
Nonmanufacturing 12.4 - 2.5 - 2.0
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.4 - 0.6 - 1.7
Nonmanufacturing 9.7 - 1.2 + 0.1
[All Enterprises]
All industries 12.3 - 1.8 + 0.3
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2005 Revision FY2006 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.48 - 6.34 + 0.04
Nonmanufacturing 3.93 - 3.90 - 0.04
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.37 - 4.37 + 0.04
Nonmanufacturing 2.66 - 2.62 - 0.06
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.76 - 3.69 - 0.09
Nonmanufacturing 2.43 - 2.44 0.00
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.01 - 3.97 - 0.01
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2005 Revision FY2006 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.9 - 16.9 + 0.4
Nonmanufacturing 3.8 - 8.5 - 0.4
All industries 7.2 - 11.5 - 0.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 21.0 - 1.4 + 3.1
Nonmanufacturing 10.9 - 11.0 + 4.5
All industries 13.9 - 8.0 + 4.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.0 - 3.3 + 4.7
Nonmanufacturing 11.7 - - 5.4 +10.7
All industries 10.7 - - 3.1 + 9.0
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 14.0 - 12.5 + 1.4
Nonmanufacturing 6.5 - 6.2 + 2.3
All industries 8.9 - 8.3 + 2.0
* Excludes Software Investment
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2005 Revision FY2006 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.3 - 17.0 + 0.3
Nonmanufacturing 3.5 - 9.2 - 0.6
All industries 6.8 - 12.0 - 0.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 15.0 - 8.3 + 2.6
Nonmanufacturing 12.6 - 4.3 + 1.7
All industries 13.3 - 5.5 + 1.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.0 - 7.2 + 3.1
Nonmanufacturing 16.0 - - 4.5 + 7.4
All industries 12.8 - - 1.4 + 6.1
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.4 - 14.4 + 1.0
Nonmanufacturing 7.1 - 5.9 + 1.0
All industries 8.8 - 8.7 + 1.0
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
June 2006 Sept. 2006 Change Dec. 2006 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises - 1 - 2 - 1 - 1 + 1
Medium-sized Enterprises - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2 0
Small Enterprises 1 1 0 - 3 - 4
All Enterprises 0 - 1 - 1 - 1 0
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
June 2006 Sept. 2006 Change Dec. 2006 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises - 7 - 8 - 1 -11 - 3
Medium-sized Enterprises - 7 - 9 - 2 -12 - 3
Small Enterprises - 4 - 8 - 4 -11 - 3
All Enterprises - 5 - 8 - 3 -11 - 3
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
June 2006 Sept. 2006 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 22 21 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 9 9 0
Small Enterprises 0 - 2 - 2
All Enterprises 8 7 - 1
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2006 Sept. 2006 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 25 24 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 16 15 - 1
Small Enterprises 11 9 - 2
All Enterprises 16 14 - 2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
June 2006 Sept. 2006 Change Dec. 2006 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises 27 42 +15 44 + 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 20 50 +30 56 + 6
Small Enterprises 16 46 +30 60 +14
All Enterprises 20 46 +26 55 + 9
[Condition for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2006 Sept. 2006 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 2 2 0
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