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TANKAN Outline (March 2007)
April 2, 2007
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Click here for the TANKAN Summary.
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,538 6,420 10,958 ( 98.7%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,252 1,227 2,479 ( 99.3%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,240 1,707 2,947 ( 98.3%)
Small Enterprises 2,046 3,486 5,532 ( 98.6%)
[Responding Period: February 23 to March 30]
(Note) All figures are based on sample enterprises after the March 2007 revision.
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
Dec. 2006 Survey March 2007 Survey
FY2006 114.06 115.01
1H 114.71 114.74
2H 113.44 115.26
FY2007 - 114.32
1H - 114.37
2H - 114.27
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Dec. 2006 March 2007 Change June 2007 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
[Large Enterprises]
( 22)
Manufacturing 25 23 - 2 20 - 3
( 21)
Nonmanufacturing 22 22 0 23 + 1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 13)
Manufacturing 21 16 - 5 12 - 4
( 5)
Nonmanufacturing 7 5 - 2 4 - 1
[Small Enterprises]
( 7)
Manufacturing 12 8 - 4 7 - 1
(- 9)
Nonmanufacturing - 4 - 6 - 2 -10 - 4
[All Enterprises]
( 5)
All industries 10 8 - 2 5 - 3
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year).
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
Dec. 2006 March 2007 Change June 2007 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 6 - 9 - 3 - 8 + 1
Small Enterprises -18 -19 - 1 -21 - 2
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 3 1 - 2 1 0
Small Enterprises - 3 - 4 - 1 - 4 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 13 - 1 - -
Small Enterprises 14 15 + 1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 11 12 + 1 - -
Small Enterprises 14 15 + 1 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 0 - 1 - 1 - 5 - 4
Small Enterprises - 4 - 4 0 - 6 - 2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 35 32 - 3 26 - 6
Small Enterprises 47 43 - 4 44 + 1
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2006 Revision FY2007 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.6 + 0.4 1.5 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.9 + 0.2 1.6 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.6 + 0.4 2.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.3 + 0.2 3.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.0 + 0.8 1.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.6 + 0.5 0.3 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.1 + 0.4 1.6 -
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2006 Revision FY2007 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.7 + 1.5 0.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.5 + 1.9 - 1.3 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.4 - 0.5 0.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.3 + 0.8 8.8 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.6 + 0.5 8.8 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.3 - 1.2 6.7 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 6.2 + 1.1 1.6 -
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2006 Changes FY2007 Changes
(Forecast) (Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.64 + 0.06 6.55 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.14 + 0.07 4.02 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.87 - 0.05 4.81 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.54 + 0.01 2.68 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.79 - 0.01 4.05 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.40 - 0.04 2.55 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.14 + 0.03 4.14 -
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2006 Revision FY2007 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 15.6 - 0.4 2.5 -
Nonmanufacturing 9.7 - 0.6 3.1 -
All industries 11.9 - 0.5 2.9 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.1 - 1.1 1.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.9 - 3.2 3.9 -
All industries 5.9 - 2.6 3.0 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.9 + 3.5 -16.5 -
Nonmanufacturing - 0.5 + 0.5 -18.3 -
All industries 3.6 + 1.5 -17.7 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 14.1 + 0.1 - 0.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 7.1 - 0.9 - 0.3 -
All industries 9.5 - 0.5 - 0.3 -
* Excludes Software Investment
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2006 Revision FY2007 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 15.3 - 0.5 3.3 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.8 - 0.9 4.6 -
All industries 11.2 - 0.8 4.1 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.0 - 2.1 3.3 -
Nonmanufacturing - 0.4 - 2.9 8.1 -
All industries 3.3 - 2.7 6.6 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.6 + 1.6 -12.6 -
Nonmanufacturing - 0.7 - 0.5 - 8.9 -
All industries 3.4 + 0.2 -10.2 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 14.5 - 0.5 1.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.7 - 1.2 3.2 -
All industries 8.7 - 0.9 2.5 -
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
Dec. 2006 March 2007 Change June 2007 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises - 3 0 + 3 - 2 - 2
Medium-sized Enterprises - 3 - 2 + 1 - 4 - 2
Small Enterprises - 1 0 + 1 - 3 - 3
All Enterprises - 3 - 1 + 2 - 3 - 2
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
Dec. 2006 March 2007 Change June 2007 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises -11 -13 - 2 -14 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises -11 -12 - 1 -14 - 2
Small Enterprises -11 -10 + 1 -11 - 1
All Enterprises -11 -12 - 1 -13 - 1
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
Dec. 2006 March 2007 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 22 21 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 10 9 - 1
Small Enterprises - 1 - 2 - 1
All Enterprises 7 6 - 1
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2006 March 2007 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 25 24 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises 18 16 - 2
Small Enterprises 10 9 - 1
All Enterprises 16 15 - 1
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
Dec. 2006 March 2007 Change June 2007 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises 33 44 +11 54 +10
Medium-sized Enterprises 44 48 + 4 67 +19
Small Enterprises 45 44 - 1 66 +22
All Enterprises 42 45 + 3 63 +18
[Condition for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2006 March 2007 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 3 4 + 1
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