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TANKAN Outline (March 2008)
April 1, 2008
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Click here for the TANKAN Summary.
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,448 6,257 10,705 ( 98.6%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,237 1,210 2,447 ( 99.0%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,216 1,648 2,864 ( 98.6%)
Small Enterprises 1,995 3,399 5,394 ( 98.4%)
[Responding Period: February 26 to March 31]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
Dec. 2007 Survey March 2008 Survey
FY2007 116.07 115.17
1H 118.37 118.40
2H 113.79 112.00
FY2008 - 109.21
1H - 109.56
2H - 108.86
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Dec. 2007 March 2008 Change June 2008 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
[Large Enterprises]
( 15)
Manufacturing 19 11 - 8 7 - 4
( 15)
Nonmanufacturing 16 12 - 4 13 + 1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 6)
Manufacturing 10 5 - 5 - 1 - 6
(- 3)
Nonmanufacturing 2 - 3 - 5 - 6 - 3
[Small Enterprises]
(- 3)
Manufacturing 2 - 6 - 8 - 9 - 3
(-17)
Nonmanufacturing -12 -15 - 3 -21 - 6
[All Enterprises]
(- 2)
All industries 2 - 4 - 6 - 7 - 3
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year).
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
Dec. 2007 March 2008 Change June 2008 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 8 -11 - 3 -11 0
Small Enterprises -21 -24 - 3 -25 - 1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 6 2 - 4 2 0
Small Enterprises - 5 - 4 + 1 - 4 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 15 15 0 - -
Small Enterprises 15 14 - 1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 13 + 1 - -
Small Enterprises 17 15 - 2 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 3 3 0 5 + 2
Small Enterprises - 1 2 + 3 8 + 6
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 45 50 + 5 51 + 1
Small Enterprises 57 63 + 6 69 + 6
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2007 Revision FY2008 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.7 + 0.2 1.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.4 - 0.3 1.8 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.8 - 0.5 3.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.6 - 0.5 1.5 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.7 - 0.7 2.3 -
Nonmanufacturing 0.8 + 0.8 - 0.4 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 3.3 0.0 1.4 -
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2007 Revision FY2008 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.7 - 1.8 0.0 -
Nonmanufacturing - 3.0 - 3.0 0.7 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 8.0 - 3.3 3.6 -
Nonmanufacturing - 1.8 - 2.8 8.2 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -10.5 - 6.8 16.6 -
Nonmanufacturing - 3.8 - 2.3 4.2 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries - 1.6 - 2.7 2.4 -
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2007 Changes FY2008 Changes
(Forecast) (Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.57 - 0.13 6.45 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.02 - 0.12 3.98 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.54 - 0.13 4.57 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.52 - 0.06 2.69 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.43 - 0.23 3.91 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.37 - 0.07 2.48 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.06 - 0.11 4.10 -
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2007 Revision FY2008 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.5 - 1.2 - 3.3 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.2 - 4.6 - 0.6 -
All industries 6.8 - 3.3 - 1.6 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.4 - 1.6 - 3.3 -
Nonmanufacturing - 2.2 - 5.4 - 2.0 -
All industries - 0.8 - 4.2 - 2.5 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 5.7 + 2.1 -20.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.3 + 4.3 -25.9 -
All industries - 1.1 + 3.6 -24.2 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.0 - 0.8 - 5.8 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.2 - 3.4 - 5.0 -
All industries 4.2 - 2.4 - 5.3 -
* Excludes Software Investment
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2007 Revision FY2008 Revision
(Forecast) rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 10.0 - 1.5 - 2.5 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.4 - 4.9 3.0 -
All industries 5.3 - 3.6 0.9 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.8 - 2.0 - 1.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.0 - 4.2 - 1.8 -
All industries 2.2 - 3.5 - 1.8 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 6.6 + 1.1 -12.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.4 + 1.0 -15.9 -
All industries - 1.5 + 1.0 -14.9 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.6 - 1.3 - 3.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.2 - 4.0 - 0.6 -
All industries 3.8 - 3.0 - 1.8 -
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
Dec. 2007 March 2008 Change June 2008 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises - 2 - 1 + 1 - 1 0
Medium-sized Enterprises - 4 - 1 + 3 - 4 - 3
Small Enterprises 2 3 + 1 2 - 1
All Enterprises 0 0 0 0 0
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
Dec. 2007 March 2008 Change June 2008 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises -13 -12 + 1 -13 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises -11 -11 0 -13 - 2
Small Enterprises - 8 - 8 0 - 7 + 1
All Enterprises -10 - 9 + 1 -10 - 1
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
Dec. 2007 March 2008 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 20 18 - 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 8 7 - 1
Small Enterprises - 3 - 7 - 4
All Enterprises 6 2 - 4
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2007 March 2008 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 23 19 - 4
Medium-sized Enterprises 14 12 - 2
Small Enterprises 7 5 - 2
All Enterprises 13 10 - 3
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
Dec. 2007 March 2008 Change June 2008 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec. and March and
March June
Large Enterprises 14 5 - 9 14 + 9
Medium-sized Enterprises 22 12 -10 20 + 8
Small Enterprises 26 16 -10 23 + 7
All Enterprises 22 12 -10 21 + 9
[Condition for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
Dec. 2007 March 2008 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 5 3 - 2
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