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TANKAN Outline (June 2008)
July 1, 2008
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Click here for the TANKAN Summary.
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,401 6,178 10,579 ( 98.9%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,230 1,198 2,428 ( 99.1%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,200 1,632 2,832 ( 99.3%)
Small Enterprises 1,971 3,348 5,319 ( 98.6%)
[Responding Period: May 28 to June 30]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
March 2008 Survey June 2008 Survey
FY2007 115.17 114.38
1H 118.40 118.43
2H 112.00 110.45
FY2008 109.21 102.74
1H 109.56 102.88
2H 108.86 102.61
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
March 2008 June 2008 Change Sept. 2008 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
( 7)
Manufacturing 11 5 - 6 4 - 1
( 13)
Nonmanufacturing 12 10 - 2 8 - 2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
(- 1)
Manufacturing 5 - 2 - 7 - 5 - 3
(- 6)
Nonmanufacturing - 3 - 5 - 2 -10 - 5
[Small Enterprises]
(- 9)
Manufacturing - 6 -10 - 4 -15 - 5
(-21)
Nonmanufacturing -15 -20 - 5 -27 - 7
[All Enterprises]
(- 7)
All industries - 4 - 7 - 3 -12 - 5
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year).
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
March 2008 June 2008 Change Sept. 2008 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -11 -10 + 1 -10 0
Small Enterprises -24 -25 - 1 -28 - 3
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 2 1 - 1 2 + 1
Small Enterprises - 4 - 7 - 3 - 7 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 15 13 - 2 - -
Small Enterprises 14 16 + 2 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 13 12 - 1 - -
Small Enterprises 15 18 + 3 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 3 10 + 7 14 + 4
Small Enterprises 2 8 + 6 15 + 7
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 50 59 + 9 59 0
Small Enterprises 63 71 + 8 74 + 3
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2007 Revision FY2008 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.1 + 0.3 3.5 + 1.9
Nonmanufacturing 4.5 + 1.1 3.7 + 3.0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.7 + 0.9 3.5 + 1.4
Nonmanufacturing 4.2 + 0.6 1.8 + 0.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.5 + 0.8 2.2 + 0.7
Nonmanufacturing 1.8 + 0.9 - 1.0 + 0.4
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.1 + 0.8 2.4 + 1.7
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2007 Revision FY2008 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.8 - 1.9 - 9.9 -11.6
Nonmanufacturing 0.3 + 3.4 - 3.8 - 1.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 9.8 - 2.0 0.4 - 5.0
Nonmanufacturing - 0.4 + 1.5 3.7 - 2.8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -12.3 - 2.0 8.3 - 9.0
Nonmanufacturing - 1.6 + 2.3 - 2.5 - 4.4
[All Enterprises]
All industries - 1.0 + 0.6 - 4.4 - 6.1
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2007 Changes FY2008 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.42 - 0.15 5.59 - 0.86
Nonmanufacturing 4.12 + 0.10 3.82 - 0.16
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.41 - 0.13 4.28 - 0.29
Nonmanufacturing 2.54 + 0.02 2.59 - 0.10
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.33 - 0.10 3.53 - 0.38
Nonmanufacturing 2.40 + 0.03 2.36 - 0.12
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.05 - 0.01 3.78 - 0.32
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2007 Revision FY2008 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.6 - 4.5 6.7 + 5.5
Nonmanufacturing 5.0 - 0.1 - 0.1 + 0.3
All industries 4.9 - 1.8 2.4 + 2.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.4 - 1.0 1.0 + 3.4
Nonmanufacturing - 1.1 + 1.1 2.3 + 5.7
All industries - 0.3 + 0.4 1.9 + 4.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 3.5 + 2.4 -16.7 + 7.5
Nonmanufacturing 5.1 + 3.8 -21.9 + 9.3
All industries 2.1 + 3.3 -20.2 + 8.7
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.9 - 3.0 2.4 + 5.4
Nonmanufacturing 4.0 + 0.7 - 3.5 + 2.4
All industries 3.6 - 0.6 - 1.4 + 3.5
* Excludes Software Investment
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2007 Revision FY2008 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.2 - 4.4 8.0 + 5.8
Nonmanufacturing 1.2 - 1.2 6.2 + 1.9
All industries 2.7 - 2.5 6.9 + 3.4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.2 - 1.6 2.6 + 2.8
Nonmanufacturing 2.9 + 0.9 2.0 + 4.8
All industries 2.4 + 0.1 2.2 + 4.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 4.5 + 2.2 - 9.7 + 5.8
Nonmanufacturing 3.9 + 2.5 -11.7 + 7.7
All industries 0.9 + 2.4 -11.0 + 7.1
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.2 - 3.2 4.8 + 5.4
Nonmanufacturing 1.9 - 0.3 2.7 + 3.1
All industries 2.4 - 1.4 3.5 + 3.9
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
March 2008 June 2008 Change Sept. 2008 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises - 1 0 + 1 - 1 - 1
Medium-sized Enterprises - 1 1 + 2 - 1 - 2
Small Enterprises 3 5 + 2 4 - 1
All Enterprises 0 2 + 2 2 0
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
March 2008 June 2008 Change Sept. 2008 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises -12 - 9 + 3 -11 - 2
Medium-sized Enterprises -11 - 6 + 5 - 9 - 3
Small Enterprises - 8 - 3 + 5 - 4 - 1
All Enterprises - 9 - 5 + 4 - 7 - 2
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
March 2008 June 2008 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 18 18 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 7 7 0
Small Enterprises - 7 - 8 - 1
All Enterprises 2 2 0
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
March 2008 June 2008 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 19 17 - 2
Medium-sized Enterprises 12 11 - 1
Small Enterprises 5 2 - 3
All Enterprises 10 8 - 2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
March 2008 June 2008 Change Sept. 2008 Change
between (Forecast) between
March and June and
June Sept.
Large Enterprises 5 15 +10 26 +11
Medium-sized Enterprises 12 18 + 6 30 +12
Small Enterprises 16 18 + 2 31 +13
All Enterprises 12 17 + 5 30 +13
[Condition for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
March 2008 June 2008 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 3 3 0
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