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TANKAN Outline (September 2009)
October 1, 2009
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Click here for the TANKAN Summary.
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,271 5,964 10,235 ( 99.0%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,210 1,168 2,378 ( 99.1%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,166 1,564 2,730 ( 98.9%)
Small Enterprises 1,895 3,232 5,127 ( 99.0%)
[Responding Period: August 26 to September 30]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
June 2009 Survey Sept.2009 Survey
FY2008 102.28 -
1H 105.32 -
2H 97.88 -
FY2009 94.85 94.50
1H 94.93 94.98
2H 94.77 94.08
[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
June 2009 Sept. 2009 Change Dec. 2009 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
(-30)
Manufacturing -48 -33 +15 -21 +12
(-21)
Nonmanufacturing -29 -24 + 5 -17 + 7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
(-46)
Manufacturing -55 -40 +15 -35 + 5
(-32)
Nonmanufacturing -36 -30 + 6 -28 + 2
[Small Enterprises]
(-53)
Manufacturing -57 -52 + 5 -44 + 8
(-45)
Nonmanufacturing -44 -39 + 5 -40 - 1
[All Enterprises]
(-41)
All industries -45 -38 + 7 -34 + 4
(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year).
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
June 2009 Sept. 2009 Change Dec. 2009 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -50 -41 + 9 -34 + 7
Small Enterprises -60 -53 + 7 -50 + 3
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -43 -33 +10 -27 + 6
Small Enterprises -52 -43 + 9 -39 + 4
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 34 26 - 8 - -
Small Enterprises 28 24 - 4 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 39 32 - 7 - -
Small Enterprises 43 38 - 5 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -24 -19 + 5 -19 0
Small Enterprises -33 -29 + 4 -32 - 3
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -10 0 +10 6 + 6
Small Enterprises - 5 4 + 9 12 + 8
[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2008 Revision FY2009 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 9.2 - -14.3 - 0.4
Nonmanufacturing - 1.6 - - 9.4 - 0.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 6.8 - -13.6 - 0.7
Nonmanufacturing - 3.4 - - 7.2 - 1.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 4.7 - -15.0 - 1.3
Nonmanufacturing - 4.1 - - 8.4 - 1.9
[All Enterprises]
All industries - 4.5 - -10.5 - 1.0
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.
[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2008 Revision FY2009 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -61.9 - -38.9 + 1.0
Nonmanufacturing -27.6 - -12.4 - 4.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing -51.3 - -33.4 + 3.0
Nonmanufacturing -29.9 - 1.1 - 4.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -50.9 - -46.2 +26.5
Nonmanufacturing -26.9 - -10.3 - 9.6
[All Enterprises]
All industries -42.5 - -19.3 - 3.5
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2008 Changes FY2009 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.70 - 1.92 + 0.03
Nonmanufacturing 3.03 - 2.93 - 0.10
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.30 - 1.78 + 0.07
Nonmanufacturing 1.84 - 2.01 - 0.08
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.72 - 1.09 + 0.24
Nonmanufacturing 1.83 - 1.79 - 0.15
[All Enterprises]
All industries 2.44 - 2.20 - 0.06
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2008 Revision FY2009 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 7.2 - -25.6 - 1.7
Nonmanufacturing - 6.2 - - 2.2 - 1.4
All industries - 6.6 - -10.8 - 1.5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 8.1 - -33.4 - 2.4
Nonmanufacturing 0.9 - -27.1 + 3.3
All industries - 2.0 - -29.0 + 1.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 7.7 - -39.7 + 3.0
Nonmanufacturing -10.8 - -30.1 + 6.1
All industries - 9.8 - -33.3 + 5.1
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 7.4 - -28.8 - 1.2
Nonmanufacturing - 5.8 - -11.0 + 0.2
All industries - 6.4 - -17.3 - 0.3
* Excludes Software Investment
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2008 Revision FY2009 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 7.3 - -23.8 - 2.0
Nonmanufacturing - 4.2 - 1.3 - 1.2
All industries - 5.4 - - 8.2 - 1.5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 9.8 - -30.8 - 3.0
Nonmanufacturing - 4.0 - -17.9 + 2.0
All industries - 5.9 - -21.8 + 0.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 3.0 - -37.9 + 1.8
Nonmanufacturing -10.6 - -23.1 + 4.7
All industries - 8.0 - -28.4 + 3.7
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 7.1 - -26.7 - 1.7
Nonmanufacturing - 5.2 - - 5.5 - 0.1
All industries - 5.9 - -13.2 - 0.6
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
June 2009 Sept. 2009 Change Dec. 2009 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises 38 34 - 4 28 - 6
Medium-sized Enterprises 35 33 - 2 28 - 5
Small Enterprises 38 35 - 3 31 - 4
All Enterprises 36 34 - 2 30 - 4
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
June 2009 Sept. 2009 Change Dec. 2009 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises 20 18 - 2 12 - 6
Medium-sized Enterprises 22 19 - 3 15 - 4
Small Enterprises 23 21 - 2 16 - 5
All Enterprises 23 20 - 3 15 - 5
[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
June 2009 Sept. 2009 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 1 6 + 5
Medium-sized Enterprises - 7 - 6 + 1
Small Enterprises -20 -18 + 2
All Enterprises -12 - 9 + 3
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2009 Sept. 2009 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises - 9 - 4 + 5
Medium-sized Enterprises - 9 - 6 + 3
Small Enterprises -13 -12 + 1
All Enterprises -11 - 9 + 2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
June 2009 Sept. 2009 Change Dec. 2009 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
Large Enterprises 5 2 - 3 10 + 8
Medium-sized Enterprises 3 3 0 12 + 9
Small Enterprises 2 3 + 1 10 + 7
All Enterprises 3 3 0 10 + 7
[Condition for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2009 Sept. 2009 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -14 -11 + 3
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