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The Consumption Activity Index : Improvements of Release Contents and Revisions of Compilation Methodology

October 7, 2016
Koji Nakamura*1
Ko Miura*2
Toshitaka Maruyama*3
Research and Statistics Department
Bank of Japan

Abstract

In this paper, we explain improvements of the release contents and revisions of the compilation methodology of the Consumption Activity Index (CAI). Regarding improvements of the release contents, first, we will provide the CAI (adjusting travel balance) one month earlier than the current release schedule by using the immigration statistics. Second, the levels and contributions of the real CAI components (durable goods, non-durable goods, and services) will be released on a monthly basis. Regarding the revisions of the compilation methodology, first, we will change the weight of life insurance expenditure. Second, we will use a new data source for electricity consumption as existing data source is no longer available. These revisions have enabled us to improve the overall performance of the CAI by further increasing its correlation with consumption trends in the Annual Report on National Accounts (ARNA), while maintaining its small short-term fluctuations and high correlations with various confidence indicators.

The authors would like to thank Toshitaka Sekine, Masahiro Higo, Hibiki Ichiue, Takuji Kawamoto, Mitsuhiro Osada, Hiroshi Kawata and the staff of the Bank of Japan for their helpful comments. The authors are also grateful to Naoko Ozaki for her collaboration on constructing the dataset used for the analysis herein. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be ascribed to the Bank of Japan. The English translation was prepared in collaboration with Chikako Wakasa.

  1. *1Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan
    E-mail : kouji.nakamura@boj.or.jp
  2. *2Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan
    E-mail : kou.miura@boj.or.jp
  3. *3Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan
    E-mail : toshitaka.maruyama@boj.or.jp

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