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Tankan Outline (June 2015)

July 1, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises
	Manu- facturing	Nonmanu- facturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises	4,491	6,575	11,066	( 99.5%)
of which Large Enterprises	1,096	1,047	2,143	( 99.7%)
Medium-sized Enterprises	1,187	1,891	3,078	( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises	2,208	3,637	5,845	( 99.5%)

[Responding Period: May 27 to June 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
	March 2015 Survey	June 2015 Survey
FY2014	107.06	108.96
1H	102.87	103.17
2H	111.00	114.29
FY2015	111.81	115.62
1H	111.54	115.59
2H	112.07	115.65

[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
	March 2015	June 2015	Change between March and June	Sept. 2015 (Forecast)	Change between June and Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 10)
Manufacturing	12	15	+3	16	+1
Nonmanufacturing		( 17)
Nonmanufacturing	19	23	+4	21	-2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 3)
Manufacturing	4	2	-2	4	+2
Nonmanufacturing		( 10)
Nonmanufacturing	14	16	+2	14	-2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 0)
Manufacturing	1	0	-1	0	0
Nonmanufacturing		( -1)
Nonmanufacturing	3	4	+1	1	-3
[All Enterprises]
All industries		( 5)
All industries	7	7	0	7	0

(Notes)

FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
	March 2015	June 2015	Change between March and June	Sept. 2015 (Forecast)	Change between June and Sept.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-12	-12	0	-9	+3
Small Enterprises	-22	-23	-1	-22	+1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-7	-7	0	-5	+2
Small Enterprises	-11	-12	-1	-11	+1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	14	13	-1	-	-
Small Enterprises	14	15	+1	-	-
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	11	12	+1	-	-
Small Enterprises	17	18	+1	-	-
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	-6	-4	+2	-3	+1
Small Enterprises	-6	-4	+2	-4	0
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	11	14	+3	16	+2
Small Enterprises	33	35	+2	39	+4

[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2014	Revision rate	FY2015 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	1.3	+0.1	0.9	+0.4
Nonmanufacturing	0.5	-3.1	0.3	-3.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	1.9	+0.2	1.4	+0.1
Nonmanufacturing	0.2	+0.2	1.2	+0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	1.2	-0.4	0.5	-0.8
Nonmanufacturing	0.0	+0.9	-0.9	+0.4
[All Enterprises]
All industries	0.6	-0.8	0.4	-1.0

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2014	Revision rate	FY2015 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	11.5	+6.1	0.8	+5.5
Nonmanufacturing	3.7	+0.3	1.5	+1.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	11.8	+7.1	0.0	+5.4
Nonmanufacturing	-0.6	+4.0	-2.3	+0.5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	8.6	+3.7	-1.5	-1.2
Nonmanufacturing	0.8	+6.9	-5.6	+2.2
[All Enterprises]
All industries	5.9	+4.0	-0.4	+3.0

[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
	FY2014	Changes	FY2015 (Forecast)	Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	7.38	+0.42	7.37	+0.36
Nonmanufacturing	4.66	+0.16	4.71	+0.24
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.74	+0.30	4.68	+0.24
Nonmanufacturing	3.01	+0.11	2.91	+0.01
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.83	+0.15	3.75	-0.02
Nonmanufacturing	3.16	+0.18	3.00	+0.05
[All Enterprises]
All industries	4.63	+0.22	4.59	+0.18

[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2014	Revision rate	FY2015 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	5.6	-1.1	18.7	+11.8
Nonmanufacturing	6.0	-2.6	4.7	+6.3
All industries	5.9	-2.1	9.3	+8.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	8.7	-0.6	11.8	+7.3
Nonmanufacturing	1.9	+3.4	-3.2	+6.1
All industries	4.2	+2.0	2.1	+6.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	9.6	+3.3	-9.9	+8.5
Nonmanufacturing	-5.0	+6.8	-18.4	+15.4
All industries	-0.8	+5.7	-15.7	+13.0
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	6.8	-0.2	12.3	+10.6
Nonmanufacturing	3.1	0.0	-1.0	+7.6
All industries	4.3	-0.1	3.4	+8.7

Excludes Software Investment.

[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2014	Revision rate	FY2015 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	6.2	-1.1	17.3	+10.8
Nonmanufacturing	3.3	-3.1	6.6	+5.0
All industries	4.3	-2.4	10.3	+7.0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	8.4	-0.7	14.1	+6.7
Nonmanufacturing	6.2	+3.5	0.5	+5.8
All industries	7.0	+2.0	5.2	+6.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	9.1	+0.7	-5.0	+7.5
Nonmanufacturing	1.3	+5.5	-15.6	+12.7
All industries	3.7	+3.9	-12.1	+10.8
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	7.0	-0.7	13.1	+9.7
Nonmanufacturing	3.3	-0.7	1.7	+6.2
All industries	4.6	-0.7	5.6	+7.4

[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
	March 2015	June 2015	Change between March and June	Sept. 2015 (Forecast)	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	3	2	-1	1	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	3	5	+2	2	-3
Small Enterprises	1	2	+1	0	-2
All Enterprises	2	3	+1	0	-3

[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
	March 2015	June 2015	Change between March and June	Sept. 2015 (Forecast)	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	-10	-9	+1	-10	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	-17	-16	+1	-18	-2
Small Enterprises	-20	-16	+4	-21	-5
All Enterprises	-17	-15	+2	-18	-3

[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
	March 2015	June 2015	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	22	22	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	17	17	0
Small Enterprises	4	5	+1
All Enterprises	12	12	0

[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
	March 2015	June 2015	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	27	27	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	23	24	+1
Small Enterprises	15	16	+1
All Enterprises	20	20	0

[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
	March 2015	June 2015	Change between March and June	Sept. 2015 (Forecast)	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	-11	-5	+6	3	+8
Medium-sized Enterprises	-11	-7	+4	3	+10
Small Enterprises	-11	-8	+3	2	+10
All Enterprises	-11	-7	+4	2	+9

[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
	March 2015	June 2015	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	28	31	+3