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Tankan Outline (June 2017)

July 3, 2017
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,358 6,367 10,725 ( 99.6%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,079 1,031 2,110 ( 99.2%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,144 1,842 2,986 ( 99.6%)
Small Enterprises 2,135 3,494 5,629 ( 99.8%)

[Responding Period: May 30 to June 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  March 2017 Survey June 2017 Survey
FY2016 107.30 108.29
1H 106.54 106.57
2H 108.01 109.89
FY2017 108.43 108.31
1H 108.45 108.36
2H 108.42 108.27
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  March 2017 June 2017 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 11)      
12 17 +5 15 -2
Nonmanufacturing   ( 16)      
20 23 +3 18 -5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 4)      
11 12 +1 11 -1
Nonmanufacturing   ( 10)      
17 18 +1 12 -6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 0)      
5 7 +2 6 -1
Nonmanufacturing   ( -1)      
4 7 +3 2 -5
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 4)      
10 12 +2 8 -4

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  March 2017 June 2017 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -8 -6 +2 -6 0
Small Enterprises -19 -18 +1 -19 -1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -4 -2 +2 -1 +1
Small Enterprises -12 -12 0 -11 +1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 8 8 0 - -
Small Enterprises 10 10 0 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 8 7 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 15 15 0 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -3 -1 +2 -2 -1
Small Enterprises -4 -4 0 -3 +1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 16 13 -3 13 0
Small Enterprises 24 26 +2 31 +5
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -2.9 +0.5 2.4 +1.4
Nonmanufacturing -3.8 +1.3 2.6 +2.5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.1 +0.3 2.8 +0.7
Nonmanufacturing 0.9 +0.5 2.6 +0.5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -0.3 +0.5 1.8 +1.0
Nonmanufacturing 0.8 +1.3 0.2 +1.5
[All Enterprises]
All industries -1.5 +0.9 2.0 +1.5

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -0.5 +12.4 -3.3 +8.9
Nonmanufacturing 5.7 +9.8 -2.7 +7.0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.5 +0.4 -1.1 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing 9.2 +6.3 -5.9 +0.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 16.4 +6.5 -3.4 +1.9
Nonmanufacturing 5.8 +6.4 -9.5 +3.0
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.4 +9.0 -4.2 +5.5
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2016 Changes FY2017
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.33 +0.78 6.92 +0.48
Nonmanufacturing 5.87 +0.45 5.57 +0.23
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.12 +0.01 4.92 -0.06
Nonmanufacturing 3.55 +0.19 3.26 0.00
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.60 +0.26 4.37 +0.04
Nonmanufacturing 3.66 +0.18 3.30 +0.04
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.21 +0.39 4.89 +0.19
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 -1.8 15.4 +7.6
Nonmanufacturing -5.4 -4.3 3.7 +1.2
All industries -2.1 -3.4 8.0 +3.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.3 +7.7 10.8 +2.5
Nonmanufacturing -3.1 +3.6 15.9 +1.6
All industries 0.2 +5.1 14.0 +1.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -6.7 +3.0 -8.1 +6.0
Nonmanufacturing 16.3 +9.4 -25.5 +12.4
All industries 8.8 +7.5 -20.6 +10.2
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.6 +0.5 10.7 +6.5
Nonmanufacturing -0.7 -0.2 -1.2 +3.1
All industries 0.4 0.0 2.9 +4.3
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.7 -2.2 8.5 +2.9
Nonmanufacturing -3.1 -4.0 7.0 +2.2
All industries -1.0 -3.0 7.8 +2.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.8 +8.2 12.1 +4.3
Nonmanufacturing -7.1 +1.5 19.6 +0.8
All industries -1.0 +4.3 16.4 +2.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -7.4 +1.5 -2.1 +4.5
Nonmanufacturing 18.6 +9.8 -20.0 +12.1
All industries 8.7 +7.0 -14.2 +9.2
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 -0.8 7.9 +3.2
Nonmanufacturing 0.0 -0.7 3.4 +3.4
All industries 0.3 -0.8 5.7 +3.3
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  March 2017 June 2017 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 1 -1 -2 1 +2
Medium-sized Enterprises 2 1 -1 -1 -2
Small Enterprises 0 -1 -1 -4 -3
All Enterprises 0 0 0 -2 -2
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  March 2017 June 2017 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -15 -16 -1 -18 -2
Medium-sized Enterprises -26 -25 +1 -29 -4
Small Enterprises -28 -27 +1 -33 -6
All Enterprises -25 -25 0 -29 -4
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  March 2017 June 2017 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 24 25 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 24 24 0
Small Enterprises 9 11 +2
All Enterprises 16 17 +1
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  March 2017 June 2017 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 27 27 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 28 28 0
Small Enterprises 20 21 +1
All Enterprises 24 24 0
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  March 2017 June 2017 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -4 -3 +1 3 +6
Medium-sized Enterprises -9 -6 +3 2 +8
Small Enterprises -12 -9 +3 0 +9
All Enterprises -9 -7 +2 1 +8
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  March 2017 June 2017 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 40 46 +6