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Tankan Outline (June 2018)

July 2, 2018
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,090 5,860 9,950 ( 99.6%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,009 918 1,927 ( 99.5%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,058 1,728 2,786 ( 99.6%)
Small Enterprises 2,023 3,214 5,237 ( 99.6%)

[Responding Period: May 29 to June 29]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  March 2018 Survey June 2018 Survey
FY2017 110.67 110.79
1H 110.95 110.97
2H 110.40 110.63
FY2018 109.66 107.26
1H 109.63 107.27
2H 109.68 107.26
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  March 2018 June 2018 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 20)      
24 21 -3 21 0
Nonmanufacturing   ( 20)      
23 24 +1 21 -3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 14)      
19 20 +1 16 -4
Nonmanufacturing   ( 16)      
21 20 -1 16 -4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 12)      
15 14 -1 12 -2
Nonmanufacturing   ( 5)      
10 8 -2 5 -3
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 12)      
17 16 -1 13 -3

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  March 2018 June 2018 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 0 -2 -2 -1 +1
Small Enterprises -9 -10 -1 -11 -1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 4 4 0 3 -1
Small Enterprises -3 -3 0 -4 -1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 6 6 0 - -
Small Enterprises 8 10 +2 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 3 3 0 - -
Small Enterprises 9 7 -2 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 4 5 +1 5 0
Small Enterprises 3 5 +2 8 +3
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 26 30 +4 24 -6
Small Enterprises 39 43 +4 44 +1
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.6 +0.9 2.5 +2.0
Nonmanufacturing 5.9 +1.2 1.4 +1.9
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 +0.4 3.3 +1.4
Nonmanufacturing 2.8 +0.6 2.5 +0.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.2 +0.5 1.0 +0.5
Nonmanufacturing 2.4 +0.9 -0.3 +0.6
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.4 +0.9 1.5 +1.4

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 20.8 +0.9 -8.6 -4.8
Nonmanufacturing 14.3 +8.6 -3.8 +5.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.6 +0.8 1.1 +3.9
Nonmanufacturing 4.7 +4.2 -1.5 +2.0
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.0 -0.8 -0.1 -1.4
Nonmanufacturing -0.5 +7.9 -6.4 +1.1
[All Enterprises]
All industries 12.0 +4.6 -5.1 +0.8
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2017 Changes FY2018
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.52 0.00 7.60 -0.53
Nonmanufacturing 6.67 +0.45 6.32 +0.22
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.23 +0.02 5.11 +0.12
Nonmanufacturing 3.85 +0.13 3.70 +0.04
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.71 -0.07 4.66 -0.09
Nonmanufacturing 3.55 +0.23 3.33 +0.02
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.83 +0.21 5.45 -0.03
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.3 -1.0 17.9 +11.3
Nonmanufacturing 2.9 -1.0 11.2 +9.2
All industries 4.1 -1.0 13.6 +10.0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.7 -0.1 16.7 +0.9
Nonmanufacturing 11.6 +3.6 2.1 +7.5
All industries 12.0 +2.1 7.8 +4.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 +2.9 7.6 +10.8
Nonmanufacturing -1.0 +4.3 -21.2 +9.6
All industries -0.5 +3.8 -11.8 +10.1
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.3 -0.2 16.0 +9.2
Nonmanufacturing 3.4 +0.7 3.3 +9.0
All industries 4.4 +0.4 7.9 +9.0
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.8 +0.1 10.1 +6.8
Nonmanufacturing 5.7 -1.0 12.0 +8.6
All industries 4.6 -0.4 11.0 +7.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.3 0.0 18.2 +0.9
Nonmanufacturing 9.9 +3.5 9.2 +6.1
All industries 9.7 +1.9 13.1 +3.7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.0 +2.2 9.5 +9.7
Nonmanufacturing -2.4 +3.7 -13.1 +10.5
All industries -0.1 +3.2 -4.7 +10.2
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.4 +0.3 11.0 +6.3
Nonmanufacturing 4.8 +0.4 7.2 +8.5
All industries 4.6 +0.3 9.1 +7.4
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  March 2018 June 2018 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -4 -6 -2 -3 +3
Medium-sized Enterprises -5 -5 0 -5 0
Small Enterprises -7 -8 -1 -9 -1
All Enterprises -5 -6 -1 -6 0
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  March 2018 June 2018 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -22 -21 +1 -21 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -34 -32 +2 -35 -3
Small Enterprises -37 -35 +2 -40 -5
All Enterprises -34 -32 +2 -36 -4
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  March 2018 June 2018 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 23 24 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 23 24 +1
Small Enterprises 12 13 +1
All Enterprises 17 18 +1
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  March 2018 June 2018 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 27 26 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 29 29 0
Small Enterprises 22 21 -1
All Enterprises 25 25 0
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  March 2018 June 2018 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 1 0 -1 6 +6
Medium-sized Enterprises -1 -2 -1 5 +7
Small Enterprises -5 -4 +1 3 +7
All Enterprises -3 -3 0 4 +7
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  March 2018 June 2018 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 41 40 -1