Tankan Outline (June 2018)
July 2, 2018
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,090 | 5,860 | 9,950 | ( 99.6%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,009 | 918 | 1,927 | ( 99.5%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,058 | 1,728 | 2,786 | ( 99.6%) |
Small Enterprises | 2,023 | 3,214 | 5,237 | ( 99.6%) |
[Responding Period: May 29 to June 29]
March 2018 Survey | June 2018 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2017 | 110.67 | 110.79 |
1H | 110.95 | 110.97 |
2H | 110.40 | 110.63 |
FY2018 | 109.66 | 107.26 |
1H | 109.63 | 107.27 |
2H | 109.68 | 107.26 |
March 2018 | June 2018 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 20) | ||||
24 | 21 | -3 | 21 | 0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 20) | ||||
23 | 24 | +1 | 21 | -3 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 14) | ||||
19 | 20 | +1 | 16 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 16) | ||||
21 | 20 | -1 | 16 | -4 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 12) | ||||
15 | 14 | -1 | 12 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 5) | ||||
10 | 8 | -2 | 5 | -3 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 12) | ||||
17 | 16 | -1 | 13 | -3 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
March 2018 | June 2018 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 0 | -2 | -2 | -1 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | -9 | -10 | -1 | -11 | -1 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -3 | -3 | 0 | -4 | -1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 6 | 6 | 0 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 8 | 10 | +2 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 3 | 3 | 0 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 9 | 7 | -2 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 4 | 5 | +1 | 5 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 3 | 5 | +2 | 8 | +3 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 26 | 30 | +4 | 24 | -6 |
Small Enterprises | 39 | 43 | +4 | 44 | +1 |
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.6 | +0.9 | 2.5 | +2.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.9 | +1.2 | 1.4 | +1.9 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.3 | +0.4 | 3.3 | +1.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.8 | +0.6 | 2.5 | +0.9 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.2 | +0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.4 | +0.9 | -0.3 | +0.6 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.4 | +0.9 | 1.5 | +1.4 |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 20.8 | +0.9 | -8.6 | -4.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 14.3 | +8.6 | -3.8 | +5.7 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.6 | +0.8 | 1.1 | +3.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.7 | +4.2 | -1.5 | +2.0 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.0 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -1.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.5 | +7.9 | -6.4 | +1.1 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 12.0 | +4.6 | -5.1 | +0.8 |
FY2017 | Changes | FY2018 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.52 | 0.00 | 7.60 | -0.53 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.67 | +0.45 | 6.32 | +0.22 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.23 | +0.02 | 5.11 | +0.12 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.85 | +0.13 | 3.70 | +0.04 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.71 | -0.07 | 4.66 | -0.09 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.55 | +0.23 | 3.33 | +0.02 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.83 | +0.21 | 5.45 | -0.03 |
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.3 | -1.0 | 17.9 | +11.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.9 | -1.0 | 11.2 | +9.2 |
All industries | 4.1 | -1.0 | 13.6 | +10.0 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 12.7 | -0.1 | 16.7 | +0.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.6 | +3.6 | 2.1 | +7.5 |
All industries | 12.0 | +2.1 | 7.8 | +4.6 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.6 | +2.9 | 7.6 | +10.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.0 | +4.3 | -21.2 | +9.6 |
All industries | -0.5 | +3.8 | -11.8 | +10.1 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.3 | -0.2 | 16.0 | +9.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.4 | +0.7 | 3.3 | +9.0 |
All industries | 4.4 | +0.4 | 7.9 | +9.0 |
- Excludes software and R&D investment.
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.8 | +0.1 | 10.1 | +6.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.7 | -1.0 | 12.0 | +8.6 |
All industries | 4.6 | -0.4 | 11.0 | +7.6 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.3 | 0.0 | 18.2 | +0.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.9 | +3.5 | 9.2 | +6.1 |
All industries | 9.7 | +1.9 | 13.1 | +3.7 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.0 | +2.2 | 9.5 | +9.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.4 | +3.7 | -13.1 | +10.5 |
All industries | -0.1 | +3.2 | -4.7 | +10.2 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.4 | +0.3 | 11.0 | +6.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.8 | +0.4 | 7.2 | +8.5 |
All industries | 4.6 | +0.3 | 9.1 | +7.4 |
March 2018 | June 2018 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -4 | -6 | -2 | -3 | +3 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -5 | -5 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -7 | -8 | -1 | -9 | -1 |
All Enterprises | -5 | -6 | -1 | -6 | 0 |
March 2018 | June 2018 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -22 | -21 | +1 | -21 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -34 | -32 | +2 | -35 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -37 | -35 | +2 | -40 | -5 |
All Enterprises | -34 | -32 | +2 | -36 | -4 |
March 2018 | June 2018 | Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 23 | 24 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 23 | 24 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 12 | 13 | +1 |
All Enterprises | 17 | 18 | +1 |
March 2018 | June 2018 | Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 27 | 26 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 29 | 29 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 22 | 21 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 25 | 25 | 0 |
March 2018 | June 2018 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 1 | 0 | -1 | 6 | +6 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -1 | -2 | -1 | 5 | +7 |
Small Enterprises | -5 | -4 | +1 | 3 | +7 |
All Enterprises | -3 | -3 | 0 | 4 | +7 |
March 2018 | June 2018 | Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 41 | 40 | -1 |