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Tankan Outline (September 2019)

October 1, 2019
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,004 5,715 9,719 ( 99.5%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,000 910 1,910 ( 99.6%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,037 1,683 2,720 ( 99.6%)
Small Enterprises 1,967 3,122 5,089 ( 99.4%)

[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  June 2019 Survey Sept. 2019 Survey
FY2018 110.33 -
1H 109.64 -
2H 110.98 -
FY2019 109.35 108.68
1H 109.36 108.86
2H 109.34 108.50
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  June 2019 Sept. 2019 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 7)      
7 5 -2 2 -3
Nonmanufacturing   ( 17)      
23 21 -2 15 -6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 0)      
5 2 -3 -1 -3
Nonmanufacturing   ( 11)      
18 18 0 9 -9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( -5)      
-1 -4 -3 -9 -5
Nonmanufacturing   ( 3)      
10 10 0 1 -9
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 4)      
10 8 -2 2 -6

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  June 2019 Sept. 2019 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -8 -8 0 -9 -1
Small Enterprises -20 -23 -3 -24 -1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -7 -8 -1 -9 -1
Small Enterprises -12 -16 -4 -17 -1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 11 12 +1 - -
Small Enterprises 15 17 +2 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 10 12 +2 - -
Small Enterprises 17 18 +1 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -2 -4 -2 -5 -1
Small Enterprises 1 -2 -3 -2 0
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 11 5 -6 9 +4
Small Enterprises 32 26 -6 30 +4
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.9 - 0.4 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing 2.0 - 0.9 -0.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.9 - 0.8 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing 3.1 - 2.6 -0.3
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.4 - -1.5 -1.0
Nonmanufacturing 2.1 - -0.2 +0.3
[All Enterprises]
All industries 2.5 - 0.7 -0.4

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -0.9 - -10.2 -2.2
Nonmanufacturing -0.1 - -4.8 -3.4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.8 - -5.7 -4.2
Nonmanufacturing 4.0 - -3.6 +0.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -1.8 - -10.4 -5.9
Nonmanufacturing 1.1 - -4.4 -0.7
[All Enterprises]
All industries 0.4 - -6.7 -2.5
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2018 Changes FY2019
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.21 - 7.35 -0.12
Nonmanufacturing 6.53 - 6.16 -0.18
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.33 - 4.98 -0.18
Nonmanufacturing 3.88 - 3.65 +0.04
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.52 - 4.11 -0.21
Nonmanufacturing 3.51 - 3.36 -0.04
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.71 - 5.29 -0.11
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.0 - 11.8 -1.0
Nonmanufacturing 7.4 - 3.6 -0.5
All industries 7.3 - 6.6 -0.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.4 - -1.1 -1.4
Nonmanufacturing 9.5 - -5.4 +2.0
All industries 8.3 - -3.7 +0.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.2 - -0.1 +3.0
Nonmanufacturing -4.4 - -10.5 +2.8
All industries 2.6 - -6.7 +2.9
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.6 - 7.3 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing 5.4 - -0.4 +0.4
All industries 6.6 - 2.4 +0.1
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 - 8.0 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing 4.7 - 6.8 -0.9
All industries 4.5 - 7.4 -0.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.5 - 1.1 -2.1
Nonmanufacturing 10.3 - 2.6 +1.4
All industries 8.7 - 2.0 -0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.0 - -1.6 +1.4
Nonmanufacturing -2.1 - -3.7 +1.4
All industries 5.0 - -2.8 +1.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.8 - 6.2 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing 4.4 - 4.4 -0.2
All industries 5.1 - 5.3 -0.4
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  June 2019 Sept. 2019 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -1 1 +2 0 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 0 1 +1 1 0
Small Enterprises -2 -1 +1 -3 -2
All Enterprises -1 0 +1 -1 -1
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  June 2019 Sept. 2019 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -21 -21 0 -22 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises -34 -32 +2 -34 -2
Small Enterprises -36 -36 0 -39 -3
All Enterprises -32 -32 0 -35 -3
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  June 2019 Sept. 2019 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 21 22 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 22 22 0
Small Enterprises 12 12 0
All Enterprises 17 16 -1
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  June 2019 Sept. 2019 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 25 23 -2
Medium-sized Enterprises 27 26 -1
Small Enterprises 20 20 0
All Enterprises 23 23 0
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  June 2019 Sept. 2019 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2019
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -2 -3 -1 1 +4
Medium-sized Enterprises -1 -2 -1 3 +5
Small Enterprises -2 -2 0 3 +5
All Enterprises -2 -2 0 3 +5
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  June 2019 Sept. 2019 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 32 35 +3