Tankan Outline (December 2019)
December 13, 2019
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 3,994 | 5,687 | 9,681 | ( 99.6%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,000 | 909 | 1,909 | ( 99.6%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,034 | 1,678 | 2,712 | ( 99.7%) |
Small Enterprises | 1,960 | 3,100 | 5,060 | ( 99.5%) |
[Responding Period: November 13 to December 12]
June 2019 Survey | Sept. 2019 Survey | Dec. 2019 Survey | |
---|---|---|---|
FY2018 | 110.33 | - | - |
1H | 109.64 | - | - |
2H | 110.98 | - | - |
FY2019 | 109.35 | 108.68 | 107.83 |
1H | 109.36 | 108.86 | 108.80 |
2H | 109.34 | 108.50 | 106.90 |
Sept. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2020 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 2) | ||||
5 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 15) | ||||
21 | 20 | -1 | 18 | -2 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( -1) | ||||
2 | 1 | -1 | -4 | -5 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 9) | ||||
18 | 14 | -4 | 7 | -7 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( -9) | ||||
-4 | -9 | -5 | -12 | -3 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 1) | ||||
10 | 7 | -3 | 1 | -6 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 2) | ||||
8 | 4 | -4 | 0 | -4 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Sept. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2020 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -8 | -10 | -2 | -11 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -23 | -23 | 0 | -25 | -2 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -8 | -12 | -4 | -11 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | -16 | -20 | -4 | -20 | 0 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 12 | 14 | +2 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 17 | 16 | -1 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 12 | 11 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 18 | 19 | +1 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -4 | -6 | -2 | -8 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -2 | -4 | -2 | -3 | +1 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 5 | 6 | +1 | 8 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | 26 | 24 | -2 | 28 | +4 |
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.9 | - | -1.6 | -2.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.0 | - | -0.3 | -1.2 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.9 | - | 0.0 | -0.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.1 | - | 2.6 | 0.0 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.4 | - | -1.8 | -0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.1 | - | 0.3 | +0.5 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 2.5 | - | -0.1 | -0.8 |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -0.9 | - | -15.1 | -5.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.1 | - | -3.9 | +1.0 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.8 | - | -6.0 | -0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.0 | - | -1.8 | +1.9 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -1.8 | - | -13.7 | -3.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.1 | - | -1.2 | +3.3 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 0.4 | - | -7.5 | -0.9 |
FY2018 | Changes | FY2019 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.21 | - | 7.08 | -0.27 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.53 | - | 6.30 | +0.14 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.33 | - | 5.01 | +0.03 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.88 | - | 3.72 | +0.07 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.52 | - | 3.97 | -0.14 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.51 | - | 3.46 | +0.10 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.71 | - | 5.28 | -0.01 |
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.0 | - | 11.3 | -0.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 7.4 | - | 4.3 | +0.6 |
All industries | 7.3 | - | 6.8 | +0.2 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.4 | - | -2.8 | -1.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.5 | - | -5.6 | -0.1 |
All industries | 8.3 | - | -4.5 | -0.8 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 17.2 | - | 0.5 | +0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | -4.4 | - | -3.8 | +7.5 |
All industries | 2.6 | - | -2.2 | +4.8 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.6 | - | 6.8 | -0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.4 | - | 1.2 | +1.6 |
All industries | 6.6 | - | 3.3 | +0.8 |
- Excludes software and R&D investment.
FY2018 | Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.3 | - | 7.2 | -0.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.7 | - | 6.3 | -0.4 |
All industries | 4.5 | - | 6.8 | -0.6 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.5 | - | -0.5 | -1.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 10.3 | - | 0.6 | -2.0 |
All industries | 8.7 | - | 0.1 | -1.8 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 17.0 | - | -1.6 | 0.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.1 | - | 1.8 | +5.8 |
All industries | 5.0 | - | 0.4 | +3.4 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.8 | - | 5.4 | -0.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.4 | - | 4.7 | +0.3 |
All industries | 5.1 | - | 5.0 | -0.3 |
Sept. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2020 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 1 | 2 | +1 | 1 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -1 | 1 | +2 | -1 | -2 |
All Enterprises | 0 | 1 | +1 | -1 | -2 |
Sept. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2020 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -21 | -21 | 0 | -21 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -32 | -31 | +1 | -34 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -36 | -34 | +2 | -38 | -4 |
All Enterprises | -32 | -31 | +1 | -33 | -2 |
Sept. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 22 | 21 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 22 | 22 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 12 | 11 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 16 | 16 | 0 |
Sept. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 23 | 23 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 26 | 27 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 20 | 19 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 23 | 23 | 0 |
Sept. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2020 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -3 | -1 | +2 | 2 | +3 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -2 | -1 | +1 | 3 | +4 |
Small Enterprises | -2 | -1 | +1 | 3 | +4 |
All Enterprises | -2 | -1 | +1 | 3 | +4 |
Sept. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 35 | 32 | -3 |