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Tankan Outline (December 2019)

December 13, 2019
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 3,994 5,687 9,681 ( 99.6%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,000 909 1,909 ( 99.6%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,034 1,678 2,712 ( 99.7%)
Small Enterprises 1,960 3,100 5,060 ( 99.5%)

[Responding Period: November 13 to December 12]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  June 2019 Survey Sept. 2019 Survey Dec. 2019 Survey
FY2018 110.33 - -
1H 109.64 - -
2H 110.98 - -
FY2019 109.35 108.68 107.83
1H 109.36 108.86 108.80
2H 109.34 108.50 106.90
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2020
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 2)      
5 0 -5 0 0
Nonmanufacturing   ( 15)      
21 20 -1 18 -2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( -1)      
2 1 -1 -4 -5
Nonmanufacturing   ( 9)      
18 14 -4 7 -7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( -9)      
-4 -9 -5 -12 -3
Nonmanufacturing   ( 1)      
10 7 -3 1 -6
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 2)      
8 4 -4 0 -4

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2020
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -8 -10 -2 -11 -1
Small Enterprises -23 -23 0 -25 -2
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -8 -12 -4 -11 +1
Small Enterprises -16 -20 -4 -20 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 14 +2 - -
Small Enterprises 17 16 -1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 11 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 18 19 +1 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -4 -6 -2 -8 -2
Small Enterprises -2 -4 -2 -3 +1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 5 6 +1 8 +2
Small Enterprises 26 24 -2 28 +4
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.9 - -1.6 -2.0
Nonmanufacturing 2.0 - -0.3 -1.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.9 - 0.0 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing 3.1 - 2.6 0.0
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.4 - -1.8 -0.3
Nonmanufacturing 2.1 - 0.3 +0.5
[All Enterprises]
All industries 2.5 - -0.1 -0.8

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -0.9 - -15.1 -5.5
Nonmanufacturing -0.1 - -3.9 +1.0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.8 - -6.0 -0.3
Nonmanufacturing 4.0 - -1.8 +1.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -1.8 - -13.7 -3.6
Nonmanufacturing 1.1 - -1.2 +3.3
[All Enterprises]
All industries 0.4 - -7.5 -0.9
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2018 Changes FY2019
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.21 - 7.08 -0.27
Nonmanufacturing 6.53 - 6.30 +0.14
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.33 - 5.01 +0.03
Nonmanufacturing 3.88 - 3.72 +0.07
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.52 - 3.97 -0.14
Nonmanufacturing 3.51 - 3.46 +0.10
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.71 - 5.28 -0.01
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.0 - 11.3 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing 7.4 - 4.3 +0.6
All industries 7.3 - 6.8 +0.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.4 - -2.8 -1.8
Nonmanufacturing 9.5 - -5.6 -0.1
All industries 8.3 - -4.5 -0.8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.2 - 0.5 +0.6
Nonmanufacturing -4.4 - -3.8 +7.5
All industries 2.6 - -2.2 +4.8
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.6 - 6.8 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing 5.4 - 1.2 +1.6
All industries 6.6 - 3.3 +0.8
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2018 Revision
rate
FY2019
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 - 7.2 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing 4.7 - 6.3 -0.4
All industries 4.5 - 6.8 -0.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.5 - -0.5 -1.6
Nonmanufacturing 10.3 - 0.6 -2.0
All industries 8.7 - 0.1 -1.8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 17.0 - -1.6 0.0
Nonmanufacturing -2.1 - 1.8 +5.8
All industries 5.0 - 0.4 +3.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.8 - 5.4 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing 4.4 - 4.7 +0.3
All industries 5.1 - 5.0 -0.3
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2020
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 1 2 +1 1 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 1 0 -1 -1 -1
Small Enterprises -1 1 +2 -1 -2
All Enterprises 0 1 +1 -1 -2
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2020
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -21 -21 0 -21 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -32 -31 +1 -34 -3
Small Enterprises -36 -34 +2 -38 -4
All Enterprises -32 -31 +1 -33 -2
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 22 21 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 22 22 0
Small Enterprises 12 11 -1
All Enterprises 16 16 0
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 23 23 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 26 27 +1
Small Enterprises 20 19 -1
All Enterprises 23 23 0
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2020
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -3 -1 +2 2 +3
Medium-sized Enterprises -2 -1 +1 3 +4
Small Enterprises -2 -1 +1 3 +4
All Enterprises -2 -1 +1 3 +4
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 35 32 -3