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Tankan Outline (June 2020)

July 1, 2020
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 3,958 5,619 9,577 ( 98.9%)
All Enterprises of which Large Enterprises 997 904 1,901 ( 98.0%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,028 1,654 2,682 ( 98.8%)
Small Enterprises 1,933 3,061 4,994 ( 99.2%)

[Responding Period: May 28 to June 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/U.S. dollar
  March 2020 Survey June 2020 Survey
FY 2019 108.67 108.73
FY 2019 1H 108.90 108.88
2H 108.45 108.59
FY 2020 107.98 107.87
FY 2020 1H 107.95 107.88
2H 108.02 107.86
Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/euro
  March 2020 Survey June 2020 Survey
FY 2019 121.78 121.65
FY 2019 1H 122.25 122.17
2H 121.30 121.13
FY 2020 120.29 119.74
FY 2020 1H 120.29 119.74
2H 120.30 119.74

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Business Conditions DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Manufacturing   ( -11)      
-8 -34 -26 -27 +7
Nonmanufacturing   ( -1)      
8 -17 -25 -14 +3

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Business Conditions DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Manufacturing   ( -20)      
-8 -36 -28 -41 -5
Nonmanufacturing   ( -14)      
0 -27 -27 -29 -2

Small Enterprises

Table: Business Conditions DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Manufacturing   ( -29)      
-15 -45 -30 -47 -2
Nonmanufacturing   ( -19)      
-1 -26 -25 -33 -7

All Enterprises

Table: Business Conditions DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
All industries   ( -18)      
-4 -31 -27 -34 -3

(Notes)

  1. FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H : First half (April - September)
    2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -14 -32 -18 -29 +3
Small Enterprises -27 -45 -18 -46 -1

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -14 -29 -15 -25 +4
Small Enterprises -22 -42 -20 -40 +2

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 14 25 +11 - -
Small Enterprises 18 28 +10 - -

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 13 24 +11 - -
Small Enterprises 20 33 +13 - -

Change in Output Prices

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -7 -10 -3 -8 +2
Small Enterprises -5 -8 -3 -11 -3

Change in Input Prices

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 5 -3 -8 2 +5
Small Enterprises 19 12 -7 17 +5

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Sales year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -3.2 -1.3 -2.6 -4.5
Nonmanufacturing -2.5 -1.2 -1.4 -3.2

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Sales year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -1.2 -0.3 -4.6 -5.4
Nonmanufacturing 1.9 0.0 -3.9 -4.3

Small Enterprises

Table: Sales year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -2.7 +0.1 -7.8 -7.4
Nonmanufacturing 0.3 +0.1 -7.5 -6.0

All Enterprises

Table: Sales year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries -1.4 -0.6 -3.9 -4.6

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Current Profits year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -17.5 -4.9 -17.6 -19.4
Nonmanufacturing -7.8 -3.4 -5.8 -7.8

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Current Profits year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -3.1 +1.3 -27.6 -22.7
Nonmanufacturing -2.8 -0.2 -31.4 -28.7

Small Enterprises

Table: Current Profits year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -18.1 -0.1 -43.3 -43.3
Nonmanufacturing 0.7 +4.2 -41.3 -36.1

All Enterprises

Table: Current Profits year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries -9.6 -2.1 -19.8 -19.5

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Ratio of Current Profit to Sales %, %points
  FY 2019
Changes FY 2020
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 7.00 -0.26 5.92 -1.10
Nonmanufacturing 6.18 -0.14 5.91 -0.30

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Ratio of Current Profit to Sales %, %points
  FY 2019
Changes FY 2020
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 5.22 +0.09 3.96 -0.89
Nonmanufacturing 3.70 -0.01 2.64 -0.91

Small Enterprises

Table: Ratio of Current Profit to Sales %, %points
  FY 2019
Changes FY 2020
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 3.80 -0.01 2.34 -1.48
Nonmanufacturing 3.53 +0.14 2.24 -1.05

All Enterprises

Table: Ratio of Current Profit to Sales %, %points
  FY 2019
Changes FY 2020
(Forecast)
Changes
All industries 5.23 -0.08 4.36 -0.81

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Table: Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 4.3 -3.7 6.5 -1.6
Nonmanufacturing -2.0 -6.5 1.2 -5.6
All industries 0.3 -5.4 3.2 -4.1

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -8.8 -0.3 4.0 -3.7
Nonmanufacturing -1.8 +4.2 -1.3 +2.1
All industries -4.5 +2.5 0.6 -0.1

Small Enterprises

Table: Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -1.2 -2.7 -10.4 -3.9
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 +1.9 -20.1 -6.2
All industries -0.2 +0.1 -16.5 -5.3

All Enterprises

Table: Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 0.9 -3.0 3.1 -2.3
Nonmanufacturing -1.5 -3.4 -3.1 -4.5
All industries -0.6 -3.2 -0.8 -3.6

Reference

Table: Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies -0.2 -2.8 -0.6 -3.1
  • * Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 3.5 -1.8 3.8 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing 0.8 -5.7 2.2 -4.6
All industries 2.3 -3.6 3.1 -2.4

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -6.7 -0.5 6.1 -2.9
Nonmanufacturing 1.6 +2.3 1.6 0.0
All industries -1.9 +1.1 3.4 -1.2

Small Enterprises

Table: Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -2.6 -1.3 -7.9 -5.8
Nonmanufacturing 4.1 +1.2 -16.9 -6.8
All industries 1.3 +0.2 -13.4 -6.3

All Enterprises

Table: Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 1.7 -1.6 2.8 -1.4
Nonmanufacturing 1.5 -3.4 -1.0 -4.2
All industries 1.6 -2.5 0.9 -2.7

Reference

Table: Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies 1.8 -2.5 1.4 -2.5

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 4 15 +11 12 -3
Medium-sized Enterprises 2 14 +12 14 0
Small Enterprises 3 17 +14 13 -4
All Enterprises 3 16 +13 13 -3

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -20 -3 +17 -6 -3
Medium-sized Enterprises -28 -6 +22 -9 -3
Small Enterprises -31 -7 +24 -11 -4
All Enterprises -28 -6 +22 -9 -3

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 18 10 -8
Medium-sized Enterprises 19 7 -12
Small Enterprises 8 -1 -9
All Enterprises 13 3 -10

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 22 16 -6
Medium-sized Enterprises 23 21 -2
Small Enterprises 18 19 +1
All Enterprises 20 19 -1

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2020
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -1 2 +3 5 +3
Medium-sized Enterprises 0 -2 -2 3 +5
Small Enterprises -1 -6 -5 0 +6
All Enterprises -1 -3 -2 1 +4

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 30 8 -22

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing 1 year ahead -0.3 -0.5 -0.2
3 years ahead -0.3 -0.6 -0.3
5 years ahead -0.3 -0.5 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.1 0.0 -0.1
3 years ahead 0.7 0.7 0.0
5 years ahead 1.0 1.1 +0.1
Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 0.2 -0.3 -0.5
3 years ahead 1.1 0.7 -0.4
5 years ahead 1.6 1.4 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.5 -0.2 -0.7
3 years ahead 1.3 0.9 -0.4
5 years ahead 1.9 1.7 -0.2
All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
All industries 1 year ahead 0.2 -0.3 -0.5
3 years ahead 0.9 0.5 -0.4
5 years ahead 1.4 1.2 -0.2

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 0.4 0.2 -0.2
3 years ahead 0.6 0.5 -0.1
5 years ahead 0.7 0.6 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.3 0.1 -0.2
3 years ahead 0.6 0.4 -0.2
5 years ahead 0.6 0.6 0.0
Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 0.6 0.3 -0.3
3 years ahead 0.9 0.7 -0.2
5 years ahead 1.1 1.0 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.7 0.4 -0.3
3 years ahead 0.9 0.7 -0.2
5 years ahead 1.1 1.0 -0.1
All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  March 2020
Survey
June 2020
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
All industries 1 year ahead 0.5 0.3 -0.2
3 years ahead 0.8 0.7 -0.1
5 years ahead 1.0 0.9 -0.1

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Enterprises (Response rate)
Manufacturing 402 ( 65.9%)
Manufacturing Basic materials 146 ( 62.3%)
Processing 256 ( 68.0%)
Nonmanufacturing 200 ( 60.5%)
All industries 602 ( 64.1%)

[Responding Period: May 28 to June 30]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Sales Overseas Sales Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Manufacturing -3.3 -3.9 -4.2 -2.7 50.41 51.01
Nonmanufacturing -0.9 -0.7 -2.9 0.5 21.92 22.20
All industries -2.2 -2.5 -3.8 -1.9 37.60 37.83

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Manufacturing -25.9 -5.6
Nonmanufacturing -8.6 -10.2
All industries -18.7 -7.7

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Fixed Investment Overseas Fixed Investment Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 2.1 1.8 -0.9 3.5 37.07 37.68
Nonmanufacturing 6.7 -0.4 -17.5 0.1 12.56 12.63
All industries 4.4 0.7 -5.7 2.6 24.81 25.29