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Highlights of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2023)

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Infographic image showing 'Japan's economy is likely to recover moderately.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

Japan's economy is likely to recover moderately.

Japan's economy is likely to recover moderately, supported by factors such as an increase in consumption, although it is expected to be pushed down by past high commodity prices and a slowdown in the pace of recovery in overseas economies.


Infographic image showing 'Inflation is likely to decelerate and then accelerate again moderately.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

Inflation is likely to decelerate and then accelerate again moderately.

The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to decelerate toward the middle of fiscal 2023, with a waning of the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by a rise in import prices. Thereafter, the rate of increase is projected to accelerate again moderately on the back of economic improvement and a rise in wage growth.


Infographic image showing 'There are high uncertainties, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, and market developments warrant attention.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

There are high uncertainties, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, and market developments warrant attention.

Extremely high uncertainties surround Japan's economy, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices as well as developments in the situation surrounding Ukraine and in commodity prices. In addition, due attention is warranted on developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan's economic activity and prices.


Infographic image showing 'The Bank will continue with powerful monetary easing.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

The Bank will continue with powerful monetary easing.

With extremely high uncertainties surrounding economies and financial markets at home and abroad, the Bank will patiently continue with monetary easing while nimbly responding to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions. By doing so, it will aim to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in a sustainable and stable manner, accompanied by wage increases.


Policy Board Members' Forecasts

  • Infographic image of a line graph showing the year-on-year rate of change in real GDP.
Actual figures for the year-on-year rate of change in real GDP are -0.8% for fiscal 2019, -4.1% for fiscal 2020, and +2.6% for fiscal 2021. Forecasts are +1.2% for fiscal 2022, +1.4% for fiscal 2023, +1.2% for fiscal 2024, and +1.0% for fiscal 2025.
  • Infographic image of a line graph showing the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index for all items less fresh food.
Actual figures for the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI are +0.6% for fiscal 2019, -0.4% for fiscal 2020, +0.1% for fiscal 2021, and +3.0% for fiscal 2022. Forecasts are +1.8% for fiscal 2023, +2.0% for fiscal 2024, and +1.6% for fiscal 2025.

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices

For further details, please see "The Bank's View" and the full text of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report) on the following pages: