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Highlights of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2024)

日本語

Infographic image showing 'Japan's economy is likely to keep growing.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

Japan's economy is likely to keep growing.

Japan's economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately, as well as financial conditions being accommodative.

Infographic image showing 'Inflation is likely to be at around 2 percent from fiscal 2025.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

Inflation is likely to be at around 2 percent from fiscal 2025.

The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be at around 2.5 percent for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2 percent for fiscal 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation, which excludes temporary fluctuations, is expected to increase gradually and then be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2 percent.

Infographic image showing 'There are high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic activity and prices.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

There are high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic activity and prices.

There remain high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic activity and prices, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, developments in commodity prices, and domestic firms' wage- and price-setting behavior. In addition, due attention is warranted on developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan's economic activity and prices.

Infographic image showing 'The Bank will conduct monetary policy with the 2 percent target.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

The Bank will conduct monetary policy with the 2 percent target.

As for the conduct of monetary policy, while it will depend on developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions going forward, if its outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized, the Bank will accordingly continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.

Policy Board Members' Forecasts

  • Infographic image of a line graph showing the year-on-year rate of change in real GDP. Actual figures for the year-on-year rate of change in real GDP are +3.0% for fiscal 2021, +1.7% for fiscal 2022, and +1.0% for fiscal 2023. Forecasts are +0.6% for fiscal 2024, +1.0% for fiscal 2025, and +1.0% for fiscal 2026.
  • Infographic image of a line graph showing the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index for all items less fresh food. Actual figures for the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI are +0.1% for fiscal 2021, +3.0% for fiscal 2022, and +2.8% for fiscal 2023. Forecasts are +2.5% for fiscal 2024, +2.1% for fiscal 2025, and +1.9% for fiscal 2026.

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices

For further details, please see "The Bank's View" and the full text of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report) on the following pages: