Highlights of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2024)
Japan's economy is likely to keep growing.
Japan's economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately, as well as financial conditions being accommodative.
Inflation is likely to be at around 2 percent from fiscal 2025.
The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be at around 2.5 percent for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2 percent for fiscal 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation, which excludes temporary fluctuations, is expected to increase gradually and then be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2 percent.
There are high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic activity and prices.
There remain high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic activity and prices, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, developments in commodity prices, and domestic firms' wage- and price-setting behavior. In addition, due attention is warranted on developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan's economic activity and prices.
The Bank will conduct monetary policy with the 2 percent target.
As for the conduct of monetary policy, while it will depend on developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions going forward, if its outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized, the Bank will accordingly continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.
Policy Board Members' Forecasts
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices
For further details, please see "The Bank's View" and the full text of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report) on the following pages: