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Revision of the Consumption Activity Index Following the 2020 Base Revision of GDP Statistics

日本語

June 30, 2026

TAKATA Kohei*1
OZAKI Tatsuya*2
NAKAZAWA Takashi*3
NORO Kohei*4
KATO Naoya*5

Research and Statistics Department
Bank of Japan

Abstract

This paper explains the revision of the estimation method for the "Consumption Activity Index (CAI)," which is published by the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan periodically. This revision of the CAI is based on the revision of Japan's GDP statistics to the 2020 base and recent structural changes in consumption behavior.

The key updates include the following: (1) updating weights of the CAI to be based on the revision of GDP statistics, and (2) reflecting structural changes in household consumption behavior observed since the COVID-19 pandemic by utilizing newly available EC-related data and value-added based related statistics for non-durable goods and service consumption. Additionally, (3) in order to more accurately reflect long-term consumption trends, for periods where Second Annual Estimate values of GDP statistics are available, a level adjustment was performed to align the CAI with GDP statistics on an annual basis.

The authors thank KAWAMOTO Takuji, SUGO Tomohiro, NAKAMURA Koji, and staff members of the Bank of Japan for their valuable comments. We also thank KANAYA Akari and IWASA Karina for their support in preparing charts and calculations, and NAKAMURA Udoh for English translation. Any remaining errors are attributed to the authors. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the organizations to which they belong.

  1. *1Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan (Currently: International Monetary Fund)
    E-mail : ktakata@imf.org
  2. *2Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan
    E-mail : tatsuya.ozaki@boj.or.jp
  3. *3Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan
    E-mail : takashi.nakazawa@boj.or.jp
  4. *4Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan
    E-mail : kouhei.noro@boj.or.jp
  5. *5Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan
    E-mail : naoya.katou@boj.or.jp

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